Canadian COVID part-2

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by pcmm

I think the fatigue comes from the repeated lockdowns (or in this iteration in Ontario not calling it a lockdown but forcing a lot of businesses to close anyway) with little evidence that it actually accomplishes anything significant. We lockdown and the cases grow slowly, BUT the "science table" throws out wild projections of "worst case" like saying we could see 10k+ infections per day but never actually hit that number (thankfully) so they can say it works, but predictably when we reopen cases tick up (which is to be expected when people interact) which it then followed by the same "table" warning us that cases will go up if we stop the lockdown. At some point we need to understand that this thing is now part of the ecosystem and we need to learn to live with it in a managed risk mode.

anyway 85 days to launch!!! (assuming we don't get locked down again)

There is plenty of evidence that lockdowns work. Of course, lockdowns are only one tool in the public health tool chest, and they come with a high cost to society. But they, along with vaccination, masking, physical distancing, limiting group sizes... all these things go together to help prevent the virus from spreading.

I completely agree that there is fatigue, and this seesawing of closing, then opening, then closing... is definitely exhausting. My point is, complaining about it doesn't change the reality of how the virus treats us. It doesn't care if we're tired.

But yes, we do need to live with it. My point is, "living with it" does not necessarily mean going back to living our lives the way we did before this virus showed up. The virus has adapted to us, so we will have to adapt to it.

BTW, we did hit well over 10,000 per day, and that was after the testing system was overwhelmed, so in all likelihood the case numbers were a lot higher.
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/cas...ers-and-spread

[TrentePieds]

McBlaze said: " Should I fly into Nanaimo and risk a 40 minute cab ride to avoid flying in a small plane?"

Well, you could give me a heads up by PM a week or so prior to your coming out. It's quite possible that I could then pick you up at Nanaimo Airport and drop you off at your boat. Not much room for luggage in a Beetle, but then if you are flying into Nanaimo, you wouldn't have much anyway :-)

TrentePieds

[Rubicon King]

Sounds like major cities in the US with the 'BLM" protesters made life hell

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Certainly the one dominate story from my neck of the woods is:

(CBC): Ottawa mayor would like protesters to move on, but organizers say they're not going anywhere


Being in Ottawa right now I can tell you people are either locked out of the downtown, or locked in. Friends of friends who live in the downtown report being harassed by protesters, and being completely unable to sleep for two nights now.

[Rubicon King]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

There is plenty of evidence that lockdowns work. Of course, lockdowns are only one tool in the public health tool chest, and they come with a high cost to society. But they, along with vaccination, masking, physical distancing, limiting group sizes... all these things go together to help prevent the virus from spreading.

I completely agree that there is fatigue, and this seesawing of closing, then opening, then closing... is definitely exhausting. My point is, complaining about it doesn't change the reality of how the virus treats us. It doesn't care if we're tired.

But yes, we do need to live with it. My point is, "living with it" does not necessarily mean going back to living our lives the way we did before this virus showed up. The virus has adapted to us, so we will have to adapt to it.

BTW, we did hit well over 10,000 per day, and that was after the testing system was overwhelmed, so in all likelihood the case numbers were a lot higher.
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/cas...ers-and-spread

Mike, love your posts generally, but it looks like the latest study's completely throw cold water on lockdowns effectiveness against the spread of COVID-19. In general it only reduced the spread by .4%. That is just not a solid argument for lockdowns.

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by Rubicon King

Mike, love your posts generally, but it looks like the latest study's completely throw cold water on lockdowns effectiveness against the spread of COVID-19. In general it only reduced the spread by .4%. That is just not a solid argument for lockdowns.

Please provide the source of this "latest study".

It matters where and what the "lockdowns" (an incorrect term for most of Canada... "restrictions" much more appropriate).

Here in Canada, over the course of the pandemic, adding restrictions have resulted in case reductions and reductions in hospitlizations.

[TrentePieds]

Gentlemen:

Let's not be drifting off into discussions of political activities that have zero relevance to SEAFARING CANADIANS, to CANADIANS ROAMING FOREIGN WATERS and to NON-CANADIANS ENTERING CANADIAN WATERS. The original Canadian Covid19 thread was closed in order to stop such activity!

Moderators can, of course, delete posts and even threads, but wouldn't it be so much more pleasant if members simply exercise the discretion expected of them?

TrentePieds
Canadian moderator

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by TrentePieds

Gentlemen:

Let's not be drifting off into discussions of political activities that have zero relevance to SEAFARING CANADIANS, to CANADIANS ROAMING FOREIGN WATERS and to NON-CANADIANS ENTERING CANADIAN WATERS. The original Canadian Covid19 thread was closed in order to stop such activity!

Moderators can, of course, delete posts and even threads, but wouldn't it be so much more pleasant if members simply exercise the discretion expected of them?

TrentePieds
Canadian moderator

Sorry TP, but are you suggesting everything here must be linked to cruising? So posting Canadian COVID-19 statistics not acceptable? Where was the political post?

[N Coast Murray]

This has nothing to do with politics, just a demonstration how Canada has faired compared to other countries.

The following list is how many deaths Canada (with a population of 38 million) would have using the Covid deaths per million number from several other countries.

Canada.........893 deaths per million...there have been 34,170 deaths in Canada.

New Zealand...11 deaths per million...would result in 651 deaths in Canada.

Denmark.......651 deaths per million...would result in 24,738 deaths in Canada.

USA...........2,740 deaths per million...would result in 104,120 deaths in Canada.

Peru...........6,112 deaths per million...would result in 232,256 deaths in Canada.

Obviously mandates, restrictions, and vaccinations work, and should get Canada back to 'normal boating' sooner.

Numbers derived from here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Rubicon King

Mike, love your posts generally, but it looks like the latest study's completely throw cold water on lockdowns effectiveness against the spread of COVID-19. In general it only reduced the spread by .4%. That is just not a solid argument for lockdowns.

What pelagia said... gotta see these studies. As I recall from some Toronto-specific studies on the actual lockdowns, they had a clear and measurable effect, even within pretty close borders (one side locked down, the other not).

In Canada, we haven't had many full lockdowns. We've had graduated sets of restrictions, but few full lockdowns, and none (that I'm aware of) to deal with the latest Omicron variant.

Not exactly sure what you're referring to TP with the reference to politics. Do you mean King's reference to BLM actions, which I agree, is a non sequitur. But I don't see anyone taking it up.

Posting major CANADIAN events that have a bearing on Covid in Canada is clearly within the purview of this discussion.

[Stu Jackson]

...cases tick up (which is to be expected when people interact)...

If those people could/would/should stay out of certain activities, like nightclubs, and would mask up and social distance, it might really help.

Them and us.


You want it "over?"


Then act like it's still here and be responsible.


Then it could be over.

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by TrentePieds

McBlaze said: " Should I fly into Nanaimo and risk a 40 minute cab ride to avoid flying in a small plane?"

Well, you could give me a heads up by PM a week or so prior to your coming out. It's quite possible that I could then pick you up at Nanaimo Airport and drop you off at your boat. Not much room for luggage in a Beetle, but then if you are flying into Nanaimo, you wouldn't have much anyway :-)

TrentePieds

That's incredibly generous of you. I will keep it in mind.

Although (keeping to the topic of risk assessment) now I have to decide if I trust an internet "stranger" over a cab driver...

[pcmm]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

BTW, we did hit well over 10,000 per day, and that was after the testing system was overwhelmed, so in all likelihood the case numbers were a lot higher.
https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data/cas...ers-and-spread

You're right, I stand corrected I forgot they switched the metric of importance on us from number of cases to number of hospitalizations.

[danstanford]

Not all Canada centric but certainly related to the discussion above:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canad...edgdhp&pc=U531

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by pcmm

You're right, I stand corrected I forgot they switched the metric of importance on us from number of cases to number of hospitalizations.

Yeah. Case numbers are pretty much useless since Omicron. I only pay attention to hospitalizations, ICU, and of course deaths. Luckily, they're all starting to trend down nationally. Although I notice in Newfoundland they are still edging up.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by danstanford

Not all Canada centric but certainly related to the discussion above:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canad...edgdhp&pc=U531

Thanks Dan, I haven't yet read the study, but assuming the reporting is good, this IS very interesting. I'll note again, Canada actually had very few lockdowns. What we've mostly had (including for the latest Omicron surge) is restrictions and targeted closures.

The article notes:

The study did give partial credit to policies that shut down “non-essential” businesses — which they concluded could bring down COVID death rates by as much as 10 per cent. The study noted that this was “likely to be related to the closure of bars.”