They Lived In a Pandemic Bubble Now Covid Has Arrived

[owly]

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-pa...ands-lockdown/


Wired Magazine had this article about the Pacific Islands, and how they managed to avoid Covid until now........ but it is now reaching their shores as was inevitable. It seems that this delay should have been a real asset with vaccines and treatment and testing protocols now developed. Like the stupidity that infects America our real pandemic, many of the island groups have very low vaccination rates and those rates vary widly from 95% to as low as 20%.......Tonga, New Caledonia and Samoa are at about 60%, Fiji 70%, New Guinea 3%. Part of the problem of course is or was availability, part of the problem complacency part stupidity (vaccine resistance). Now that Omircron spreading so rapidly, it is virtually impossible to keep it out without killing the economy. Lockdowns and "covid zero" type policies can only be short term....a delaying action while preparing the population through vaccination. It solves nothing long term otherwise...... it often breeds complacency that ultimately backfires. I see that where I live..... We were slow to develop cases, and as a result people conclude that they are somehow more robust and resistant, or the disease less deadly, and now the hospitals are slammed and we have a very high rate. I got my vaccine and booster at the earliest possible opportunity (foolishly I'm told).....
Hopefully these island nations will be able to bring it under control and the cruising world will "normalize".

[BAD ORCA]

Originally Posted by owly

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-pa...ands-lockdown/


Wired Magazine had this article about the Pacific Islands, and how they managed to avoid Covid until now........ but it is now reaching their shores as was inevitable. It seems that this delay should have been a real asset with vaccines and treatment and testing protocols now developed. Like the stupidity that infects America our real pandemic, many of the island groups have very low vaccination rates and those rates vary widly from 95% to as low as 20%.......Tonga, New Caledonia and Samoa are at about 60%, Fiji 70%, New Guinea 3%. Part of the problem of course is or was availability, part of the problem complacency part stupidity (vaccine resistance). Now that Omircron spreading so rapidly, it is virtually impossible to keep it out without killing the economy. Lockdowns and "covid zero" type policies can only be short term....a delaying action while preparing the population through vaccination. It solves nothing long term otherwise...... it often breeds complacency that ultimately backfires. I see that where I live..... We were slow to develop cases, and as a result people conclude that they are somehow more robust and resistant, or the disease less deadly, and now the hospitals are slammed and we have a very high rate. I got my vaccine and booster at the earliest possible opportunity (foolishly I'm told).....
Hopefully these island nations will be able to bring it under control and the cruising world will "normalize".

More group think, im afraid of what others will think of me if i dissent, im smarter than you, arrogant elitism. Thats actually our real problem in America, not vaccine hesitancy.

[CaptTom]

Thanks, interesting post. It may have been inevitable, but still sad. And it is somehow reassuring to know that the level of stupidity we've seen here in the US is not unique to our country. Maybe stupidity is a harsh word, but there's a lot of truth there. I guess we (humans) aren't programmed to act in our own best interests.

[owly]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

Thanks, interesting post. It may have been inevitable, but still sad. And it is somehow reassuring to know that the level of stupidity we've seen here in the US is not unique to our country. Maybe stupidity is a harsh word, but there's a lot of truth there. I guess we (humans) aren't programmed to act in our own best interests.

Hopefully things will open up......... I have no other word to describe choosing to risk sickness and death when there not only is another option, but here in the US it is FREE. If they choose to take it personally.........so be it. At least in the Pacific Islands, the problem is as much or more a lack of access, as playing a game of Russian Roulette. Polio, Smallpox, Tetanus, Diptheria, Measles, and a lot of other former killers are no longer a threat because of vaccines. Humanity is overpopulated and that is at the foundation of virtually all of our major problems, so perhaps a cull is called for. "Stupid" may be harsh in terms of political correctness....... but the shoe fits. Unfortunately I have friends among their number........ People who choose to listen to idiots on social media and Faux News.........and several of them have paid the ultimate price!! At least they had a choice........ some people in other parts of the world did not have that choice!

[seto_beril]

Originally Posted by owly

Russian Roulette

The CDC says that about 1 out 100,000 people ages 18-49 who get covid (delta+omnicron) will die. source CDC also says 94% of fatalities have one or more comorbidities. Do a little math and as a healthy person of middle age you have a 1 in 1.6 million chance of death from covid. Hardly Russian roulette. To give some context, according to DAN you are about 8x as likely to die on a single scuba dive (1/200,00) source

In fact, for a 30 year old, if you figure he or she has 50 years of life left, then on average getting the shot (we'll assume it's 100% effective) would only get you 16 minutes of additional life. Given that it would likely take you longer to get in your car and drive to CVS (not to mention risking getting sick for several days) the shot will likely produce a net negative enjoyable lifespan.

I guess I'm the stupid one though for getting my information from the CDC and NIH and actually doing some critical thinking instead of parroting talking points.

[PippaB]

Originally Posted by seto_beril

The CDC says that about 1 out 100,000 people ages 18-49 who get covid (delta+omnicron) will die....

Yes, the CDC does say that, but the same data says that your chances of dying in that age group if you are vaccinated + boosted is approaching zero. And if just vaccinated < 0.05/100k. If you want to espouse critical thinking then why not put all the facts out there instead of cherry-picking?

[owly]

Originally Posted by seto_beril

The CDC says that about 1 out 100,000 people ages 18-49 who get covid (delta+omnicron) will die. source CDC also says 94% of fatalities have one or more comorbidities. Do a little math and as a healthy person of middle age you have a 1 in 1.6 million chance of death from covid. Hardly Russian roulette. To give some context, according to DAN you are about 8x as likely to die on a single scuba dive (1/200,00) source

In fact, for a 30 year old, if you figure he or she has 50 years of life left, then on average getting the shot (we'll assume it's 100% effective) would only get you 16 minutes of additional life. Given that it would likely take you longer to get in your car and drive to CVS (not to mention risking getting sick for several days) the shot will likely produce a net negative enjoyable lifespan.

I guess I'm the stupid one though for getting my information from the CDC and NIH and actually doing some critical thinking instead of parroting talking points.

Those are bogus numbers by any measure........ In a nearby county where I do have figures and which has a population of approximately 100K, there have been 506 deaths so far. In the US so far the death toll to Feb 2 was 906146.... from a population of a bit more than 331 million....... In case you are math challenged we are talking about a number approaching 1 out of 331 for the US. And one out of about 2000 locally. I presume you are listening to the idiots on Faux News....ALL of whom are vaxed as a company policy. Including ******** like Tucker Carlson. Somebody is blowing smoke up your backside!! DO THE MATH......... Shut the TV off!!


** Note the numbers you cite are beyond absurd because they refer to deaths ONLY among those who actually get covid!!!



I have what I consider from experience a strong immune system, I am resistant to most things, get flu perhaps once every 10 years if that. At 66, I have NEVER been to a doctor except for stitches and a couple of times for strep. Last year I went in and literally demanded a tetanus shot... because it had been over 10 years......I'm not a gambler. In my various enterprises I often have open wounds (minor) and am exposed to potential sources of infection.......but I do not get infected or sick........ dirt, grease, blood, manure......I'm not a city boy, a light weight, or a pansy. I'm not political either. It's appalling that this has become about politics to so many people.... it's about your life and health. Not gambling with it. Perhaps YOU can afford to take stupid unnecessary chances with your health........ I can't!!

[seto_beril]

Originally Posted by PippaB

Yes, the CDC does say that, but the same data says that your chances of dying in that age group if you are vaccinated + boosted is approaching zero. And if just vaccinated < 0.05/100k. If you want to espouse critical thinking then why not put all the facts out there instead of cherry-picking?

Maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point was that even though the vaccine reduces your chance of dying, for healthy people the time-cost of getting the vax outweighs the benefit, because you're so unlikely to die from it. The vaccine only lengthens your lifespan by 16 minutes. If you spend any more than that getting your 2 shots and x boosters then you are in the negative, and you would have been better off not getting it.

Originally Posted by owly

Those are bogus numbers by any measure........

The numbers I quoted from the CDC are bogus?

Originally Posted by owly

In a nearby county where I do have figures and which has a population of approximately 100K, there have been 506 deaths so far. In the US so far the death toll to Feb 2 was 906146.... from a population of a bit more than 331 million....... In case you are math challenged we are talking about a number approaching 1 out of 331 for the US.

I am not math challenged. The CDC figures are for 18-49 year olds October 3–December 25, 2021

Originally Posted by owly

And one out of about 2000 locally. I presume you are listening to the idiots on Faux News....ALL of whom are vaxed as a company policy. Including ******** like Tucker Carlson. Somebody is blowing smoke up your backside!! DO THE MATH......... Shut the TV off!!

I don't have a TV. Do you?

Originally Posted by owly

** Note the numbers you cite are beyond absurd because they refer to deaths ONLY among those who actually get covid!!!

Should we be talking about covid deaths among people who didn't get covid?

Originally Posted by owly

I have what I consider from experience a strong immune system, I am resistant to most things, get flu perhaps once every 10 years if that. At 66, I have NEVER been to a doctor except for stitches and a couple of times for strep. Last year I went in and literally demanded a tetanus shot... because it had been over 10 years......I'm not a gambler.

That's a good plan. I'm up to date on my Tdap as well.

Originally Posted by owly

In my various enterprises I often have open wounds (minor) and am exposed to potential sources of infection.......but I do not get infected or sick........ dirt, grease, blood, manure......I'm not a city boy, a light weight, or a pansy. I'm not political either. It's appalling that this has become about politics to so many people.... it's about your life and health. Not gambling with it. Perhaps YOU can afford to take stupid unnecessary chances with your health........ I can't!!

I'll argue that if you're not going to the doctor regularly for checkups at 66 you're taking a much larger gamble with prostate cancer than you are with covid as 1 in 41 men will die of prostate cancer (vs 33/100,000 covid deaths for >65 year olds) source

[kiwin]

Sadly much of the vaccine resistance in the Pacific Islands is due to the sickness leaking out of the US. Facebook propaganda bought and paid for in the US is spread throughout the islands. There are many US funded evangelical Christian programs throughout the Pacific and some of those people are only too happy to spread vicious evil lies that have and will kill people.

[Wotname]

Would you gentlemen like to get back to discussing the topic of the thread which is about covid, the island nations and cruising; it isn't a thread about maths or CDC numbers.

Otherwise the thread drifts into the shoals and serves no purpose.

[Capt. Ray]

Massive cherry-picking going on here. Next.

Originally Posted by seto_beril

Maybe I wasn't clear enough. My point was that even though the vaccine reduces your chance of dying, for healthy people the time-cost of getting the vax outweighs the benefit, because you're so unlikely to die from it. The vaccine only lengthens your lifespan by 16 minutes. If you spend any more than that getting your 2 shots and x boosters then you are in the negative, and you would have been better off not getting it.



The numbers I quoted from the CDC are bogus?

I am not math challenged. The CDC figures are for 18-49 year olds October 3–December 25, 2021
I don't have a TV. Do you?
Should we be talking about covid deaths among people who didn't get covid?

That's a good plan. I'm up to date on my Tdap as well.

I'll argue that if you're not going to the doctor regularly for checkups at 66 you're taking a much larger gamble with prostate cancer than you are with covid as 1 in 41 men will die of prostate cancer (vs 33/100,000 covid deaths for >65 year olds) source

[Kd9truck]

There are vaccine hesitant people all over the world, but unfortunately in most countries there is no first amendment right, that’s the freedom of speech one OWLY. You should also note that 10% of the world has an IQ of under a 75, so technically mentally disabled, that’s a protected class so be careful when you use the S word.
I caught COVID IN 12/19 it took me 2 months to shake with prednisone and amoxicillin as well as my asthma meds. I have been Vaccinated 2x and had a booster this fall. I caught COVID again in the beginning of Jan. My fathers died of COVID 7/2/2020 and my mother 86 was at deaths door 2 weeks ago.
My point? The “vaccines” are leaky and the “science” behind the vaccines is now calling it a endemic not a pandemic, so the virus will be everywhere eventually, regardless of the jabs reguardless of how smart or ignorant any one individual is, and reguardless of mandates and lockdowns….sadly herd immunity is something most left leaning intellectuals believe to be a bad thing. Most likely there will be viruses on this planet long after we are, regardless of our intelligence, real or perceived.
AND right now you show that you live nowhere and don’t have a boat so what are you doing hear? By all indications you could be a basement blogger or a COWARD TROLL.

Nothing about your post is about sailing.

Cheers

[Capt. Ray]

Most countries have freedom of speech so the below diatribe starts with nonsense then gets worse. Your "points" are vacuous and do a disservice to everyone. Simple things to note: 1. Most people in hospital and dying of COVID are unvaccinated. 2. You apparently misunderstand "herd immunity" which is only used by virologists and immunologists in relation to vaccine programs AND as far as I can determine, has nothing to do with "left-leaning intellectuals". 3. Calling the base poster a COWARD TROLL is utterly beyond the pale and undeserved. 4. His post discussed south Pacific islands where I am headed soon from Panama and that qualifies his post as something to do with sailing. Oh and by the way 5. There will be a million dead in the USA alone soon of COVID.

Originally Posted by Kd9truck

There are vaccine hesitant people all over the world, but unfortunately in most countries there is no first amendment right, that’s the freedom of speech one OWLY. You should also note that 10% of the world has an IQ of under a 75, so technically mentally disabled, that’s a protected class so be careful when you use the S word.
I caught COVID IN 12/19 it took me 2 months to shake with prednisone and amoxicillin as well as my asthma meds. I have been Vaccinated 2x and had a booster this fall. I caught COVID again in the beginning of Jan. My fathers died of COVID 7/2/2020 and my mother 86 was at deaths door 2 weeks ago.
My point? The “vaccines” are leaky and the “science” behind the vaccines is now calling it a endemic not a pandemic, so the virus will be everywhere eventually, regardless of the jabs reguardless of how smart or ignorant any one individual is, and reguardless of mandates and lockdowns….sadly herd immunity is something most left leaning intellectuals believe to be a bad thing. Most likely there will be viruses on this planet long after we are, regardless of our intelligence, real or perceived.
AND right now you show that you live nowhere and don’t have a boat so what are you doing hear? By all indications you could be a basement blogger or a COWARD TROLL.

Nothing about your post is about sailing.

Cheers

[thinwater]

Originally Posted by seto_beril

The CDC says that about 1 out 100,000 people ages 18-49 who get covid (delta+omnicron) will die. source CDC also says 94% of fatalities have one or more comorbidities. Do a little math and as a healthy person of middle age you have a 1 in 1.6 million chance of death from covid. Hardly Russian roulette. To give some context, according to DAN you are about 8x as likely to die on a single scuba dive (1/200,00) source

In fact, for a 30 year old, if you figure he or she has 50 years of life left, then on average getting the shot (we'll assume it's 100% effective) would only get you 16 minutes of additional life. Given that it would likely take you longer to get in your car and drive to CVS (not to mention risking getting sick for several days) the shot will likely produce a net negative enjoyable lifespan.

I guess I'm the stupid one though for getting my information from the CDC and NIH and actually doing some critical thinking instead of parroting talking points.

Critical thinking is good. But you need to be careful of your assumptions, biases, and the data you left out. Lamentably, your analysis skipped over a great many things.

• Comorbidity.These can be minor, things that a person is only aware of in a tangential way. Something treated with a prescription you don't think much about.
• Death is not the only problem. For example, of the 1100 people in my company, about 1/4 missed time off sick, many with miserable symptoms. Some entire facilities were closed for a week in the last wave because there were no workers. The average time off was 2 weeks. About 2 dozen spent time in the hospital. About as many still have no sense of taste or smell or suffer from migraines.
• Vector. It is not only the risk to yourself, but as a vector, you infected other people who may have comorbities. This is why rats and their fleas are so bad.

In fact, the odds of a really miserable experience, that would waste days or weeks of your life, were and remain rather high. Assuming no vaccine, more like...

(1 chance in 3 of getting sick)(1 chance in 5 of getting sick enough to miss a week of work) = 60 hours of average incapacitation. Not 16 minutes. Just for that, your analyses swings stongly the other way. Out of personal self interest, the math for getting a vaccine wins. It was worth it for me just to avoid a week or two of the slag.That is enough.
and

(1 chance in 50 of landing in the hospital)(1 chance in 3 of some long lasting problem) = 7 hours in a hospital and 1 chance in 150 of have some long term problem, though perhaps minor. Boy, would I feel stupid about that.

There is also concept of insurance. We buy it to protect against what we cannot afford and worry. A vaccine passes both of these tests. If you don't not believe in this concept, I assume you carry no auto, personal, or marine insurance other than required minimum liability coverage. But I'm sure you do. So it makes sense to vaccinate as free insurance.

Finally there is social disruption. Non-vacination and higher infection rates slows everything down. You are free to not vaccinate, but recognized that this refusal, like refusing to wear a mask, just draws things out by months. That's just the math of spread, whether serious or not; not vacinating or wearing a masks mean you too will endure mandates and such for some number of additional weeks. You did that to yourself. Own it.

Perhaps you will revise your critical thinking with the above additional data. Or go search more data. It is not all about death numbers. It is about quality of life and respect for your fellow citizens.



Critical thinking requires that you did not have an answer in mind when you started.

[Kd9truck]

Most countries have freedom of speech so the below diatribe starts with nonsense then gets worse. Your "points" are vacuous and do a disservice to everyone. Simple things to note: 1. Most people in hospital and dying of COVID are unvaccinated. 2. You apparently misunderstand "herd immunity" which is only used by virologists and immunologists in relation to vaccine programs AND as far as I can determine, has nothing to do with "left-leaning intellectuals". 3. Calling the base poster a COWARD TROLL is utterly beyond the pale and undeserved. 4. His post discussed south Pacific islands where I am headed soon from Panama and that qualifies his post as something to do with sailing. Oh and by the way 5. There will be a million dead in the USA alone soon of COVID.

1. you are not the OP
2. You can not silence my opinion
3. I did not call him a Coward Troll
4. Nothing in the OPs post is about sailing
5. I don’t think you understand how “herd immunity” works regardless of who uses the term
6. You should go to the South Pacific, but please please bring masks and where them, and your Vax card,and have a good time, I’ve crushed to 5 countries this past year and respected every letter of protocol

Cheers Ray