Canadian COVID part-2

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by danstanford

I don't believe this. While we may not use conscious risk assessment tools, we all learn throughout our lives how to analyze risk. We let our kids play in our back yard largely unsupervised but not in the front yard where the street is.

Oddly enough I knew you wouldn't It highlights another issue in dealing with this mess: we all see the players in a different light and everyone at one point or another has been dumbfounded by something someone else thinks is perfectly natural.

(and FWIW I think that not letting our kids play in the front is recent, learned behavior )

[Zippee]

Originally Posted by Macblaze

We had this conversation last night. One of the problems we as a society have is that we have been moving towards a "any death is preventable—and should be prevented" model for several decades. Which is reasonable up to a point. But where that point is, is a matter of great contention and very viewpoint oriented and I believe Covid is going to be a watershed moment for how we treat risk.

Many advocacy groups for elderly, disabled etc. are not going to accept us as society saying that we are willing to accept the higher risk on their behalf and they will continue to fight for restrictions or vaccine mandates or whatever they think will lessen the risk—and they should. That's their job. But the general populace are going to be forced to push back and start saying, out loud, that which is generally ignored or at least kept as our dirty little secret. How much risk it too much? What level of death/serious illness is acceptable. And to whom?

It is also important to note that many of the most at risk are also the most inconvenienced by all the measures, My mom (jokingly...mostly) never fails to remind me that any one of my not-so-regular phone calls could be the last one. Two years really is an eternity if you look at it from that perspective.

I have no predictions, but I would remind all of us that we, who blather about on the internet are not the voice of the people and, as far as I can tell, don't really reflect the general consensus of the majority. We are just the loud ones.
But I agree. It's time to start moving towards...something...

This is real, moving and well put. Brilliant. I would only add the viewpoint that we - the world - have not been unified, and never took all the steps needed to address all preventable deaths. Our responses have been largely political, partial and changing.



So it should be clear not that we have done too much, but that we have done too little. If we stop now it's not a question of moral failure, but more one of political will from the beginning. Our representatives have represented themselves, not us.

We should consider also that people who are most in need based on age, et al, are also the fewest in number and perhaps the easiest to protect. All said though, many thanks for your post and initiation of a dialogue....

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Macblaze

(and FWIW I think that not letting our kids play in the front is recent, learned behavior )

. Which is kinda my point about coming to a societal agreement on the risks associated with Covid-19. Even once we can rationally assess the risk (I don't think we can yet), we still need to come to a collective agreement about where the acceptable levels are, and what we will do to mitigate.

None of this is easy or obvious. If it was, we wouldn't be seeing the levels of frustration rising on all sides.

BTW, I think our socities have gone nuts with their protection and restrictions around children. We thought nothing of playing in the front yard -- heck, playing in the streets -- when growing up. A favourite pastime of my cohort was roof-hopping, where we'd race down the city block, leaping from roof to roof. If a kid did this today they'd either be arrested, institutionalized, or their parents would be fined, jailed and the kids removed.

[AiniA]

Originally Posted by Mike OReilly

Thanks Ann. Yes, it's starting to feel like it might happen this year. Of course, given that our winter cover completely disintegrated a month ago, I fear for what we're coming back to. But anything will better than this purgatory or limbo we've been going through.



I'd love to hear what they tell you. When were you planning to head off to The Rock? And where are you headed? Maybe there's a meet-up possibility. And of course, if there is anything I can do to assist, I'm always happy to do what I can.

Thanks for the assistance, we are planning to go along the northern shore of the St Lawrence as far as the southern tip of Labrador and then cross to the island. At this point we are thinking about hauling for the winter in Lewisporte. Sent an email to them a long time ago and did not get a response. Maybe you can help. Do they haul mast up or mast down? Can you get the boat shrink-wrapped? What do they charge haul/pressure wash/store/launch? I imagine we would be bit cheaper than you at 30'. As to timing, what would be a good time to get to Labrador? Would end of June make sense?

[AiniA]

Heard a report on the news that Ontario is using waste water sampling to determine case counts. They must have considerable confidence in the methodology since they pinpointed a particular date when they thought the maximum number of cases happened (late last week). Apparently the lack of testing means that they do not have a good idea of how many cases there have been since Omicron hit. One number that was suggested was two million (popn is about 14 million). The head of the science table seemed to be equating two shots and a booster to two shots and a recent infection. The higher the number of infections the better for the next few months.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Macblaze

One of the problems we as a society have is that we have been moving towards a "any death is preventable—and should be prevented" model for several decades. Which is reasonable up to a point. But where that point is, is a matter of great contention and very viewpoint oriented and I believe Covid is going to be a watershed moment for how we treat risk.

Let's not lose sight of two things:

1) This is really the first time the world has mounted such a concerted effort against such a widespread pandemic... and many many lives have been saved. Vaccine technology has been pushed forward by a generation. History will judge how successful the effort was, but still, in many regards, it has been remarkable.

2) We're close to done, and now is finally the time that we can (soon) reasonably manage the overall risk from COVID without the spectrum of restrictions and mandates. So maybe the "watershed" moment is that we are nearing the time where we can now actually open up at an acceptably low risk.

Which makes it kind of ironic that we are having the big protests now, as restrictions are currently being relaxed anyway. (in Canada, he said, striving to stay on topic.)

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by AiniA

Heard a report on the news that Ontario is using waste water sampling to determine case counts. They must have considerable confidence in the methodology since they pinpointed a particular date when they thought the maximum number of cases happened (late last week).

Yeah, sewage testing is widespread. The advantage is that the amount of virus measured gives a reasonably accurate overall picture of the amount of sickness in an area, without regards to how many people bother to get tested.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by AiniA

Thanks for the assistance, we are planning to go along the northern shore of the St Lawrence as far as the southern tip of Labrador and then cross to the island. At this point we are thinking about hauling for the winter in Lewisporte. Sent an email to them a long time ago and did not get a response. Maybe you can help. Do they haul mast up or mast down? Can you get the boat shrink-wrapped? What do they charge haul/pressure wash/store/launch? I imagine we would be bit cheaper than you at 30'. As to timing, what would be a good time to get to Labrador? Would end of June make sense?

I can help with most of your questions. I sailed most of your expected passage (missed a small portion when we headed across the Gulf, but from north of Anticosti). But I'll send you a PM so as not to send this thread off on our personal tangent.

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

2) We're close to done, and now is finally the time that we can (soon) reasonably manage the overall risk from COVID without the spectrum of restrictions and mandates. So maybe the "watershed" moment is that we are nearing the time where we can now actually open up at an acceptably low risk.

Love your always-hopeful perspective LE (seriously -- honestly!). I'm trying to get there, but I just still see too many unknowns, and am ever-cautious of humans' tendency for optimism-bias.

But I dearly hope you are correct. My boat beacon...

[hjohnson]

I’ll probably get shot for this, but I kind of miss the restrictions. Summer 2020 was some of the best cruising I ever had on the BC coast. Did a 2 week trip up to Desolation Sound, and virtually had it as our own personal playground. I never once ran into a full anchorage, and there was room in any Marina we wanted to hit. Heck, Smuggler’s Cove was relatively quiet on the August Long Weekend!

Ahh well… I guess we had to re-open the border and let the hoards back in.

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by hjohnson

I’ll probably get shot for this, but I kind of miss the restrictions. Summer 2020 was some of the best cruising I ever had on the BC coast. Did a 2 week trip up to Desolation Sound, and virtually had it as our own personal playground. I never once ran into a full anchorage, and there was room in any Marina we wanted to hit. Heck, Smuggler’s Cove was relatively quiet on the August Long Weekend!

Ahh well… I guess we had to re-open the border and let the hoards back in.

Well, I'd happily accept the hordes instead of ever seeing Covid-19... and I live in hordesville (Whistler, if you get my drift).

But I understand your thoughts, Desolation and Broughtons in 2020 were nice without the "extra" boats... always hated going to an anchorage in Desolation and there being no room because 75% of them were from away (though there sure seemed a lot of Cdn boats in Desolation by August)!

[JPA Cate]

In terms of what to expect, an article in today's NYT discussed the subject. Here's a link: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/31/o...demic-end.html. It is an opinion piece.

A difference no one seems to comment on, but which I think changes things is that we are inundated with information these days, we share it, and we are far more aware of how this pandemic is affecting people all over our world. Fwiw, my sense is that this increases fears, generally. And one affect of that is that some people delay needed medical procedures, especially if the procedure is distasteful in some way. This is not a staffing problem, it is from too much fear around, and that many are not able to self-soothe the same ways as they were used to.

Ann

[N Coast Murray]

Regarding Canadian mask/mandate protestors.

The approximate median number of Covid deaths per million, per country worldwide is 3000 (see link below).

Canada, because of mandates, has had 'only' 889 Covid deaths per million. (34,000 people, so far).

If we had relaxed masking, mandates, and restrictions to the meet the global death by Covid average, we'd of had over 110,000 deaths.

Would the protesters really trade 80,000+ dead people so they could shop, travel, and go to bars freely?

The protesters are a real head scratcher to me!

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Macblaze]

Originally Posted by hjohnson

I’ll probably get shot for this, but I kind of miss the restrictions. Summer 2020 was some of the best cruising I ever had on the BC coast. Did a 2 week trip up to Desolation Sound, and virtually had it as our own personal playground. I never once ran into a full anchorage, and there was room in any Marina we wanted to hit. Heck, Smuggler’s Cove was relatively quiet on the August Long Weekend!

Ahh well… I guess we had to re-open the border and let the hoards back in.

Ah no, I missed the last two seasons and looked longingly of images of a mostly empty Prideaux Haven. Its not that I don't like the Americans but most (ok, ok, a lot of them...) of them have big honking powerboats with big tenders, generators and sound systems. So I am jealous you managed a few years of your own backyard in relative peace and quiet.

We generally cruise in May-June and always seen the long parade of US boats heading north as we head back south. In fact we usually play a game called American or Canadian—the winner is the person who can call the nationality from furthest away—the Americans do tend to want them bigger but there are enough deep-pocketed cruisers from Vancouver to make it interesting.

[hjohnson]

Originally Posted by Macblaze

Ah no, I missed the last two seasons and looked longingly of images of a mostly empty Prideaux Haven. Its not that I don't like the Americans but most (ok, ok, a lot of them...) of them have big honking powerboats with big tenders, generators and sound systems. So I am jealous you managed a few years of your own backyard in relative peace and quiet.

We generally cruise in May-June and always seen the long parade of US boats heading north as we head back south. In fact we usually play a game called American or Canadian—the winner is the person who can call the nationality from furthest away—the Americans do tend to want them bigger but there are enough deep-pocketed cruisers from Vancouver to make it interesting.

We went up to PLI in the Well before the May long weekend last year and it was glorious. It was during the freshet, and I think we counted 90 waterfalls in the inlet. Also, Chatterbox Falls was absolutely roaring. Absolutely stunning, yet there was only one other boat on the dock, and one night we had the entire dock to ourselves. When we left on the Saturday of the long weekend, we counted at least a dozen boats going the other way in Jervis Inlet.

But yeah, maybe I’m a more hardy soul than most, but in my opinion, sailing season ends in late May, and starts up again in early September. Summer is for doing boat maintenance, and day sailing. The off season is for cruising. There’s nothing quite like waking up to 3 inches of snow on deck.