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Old 16-11-2019, 18:41   #91
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by ahun View Post
Re atoll's comments:

I wonder if this going to be the most influential sailing event of the century, where we throw away the parroting of certain restrictions of geological and time limitations regarding of sailing. Based on smartness instead of strength (of vessels) we might create brand new routes and ways of transporting tourists from A to B. I'm am still sceptical though about their success, and a bit concerned how many future 'sailors' will try the same thing, and fail (potentially lost) because they don't realise the background effort put in thist stunt.
possibly influential,due to their social media presence,but the technology has been there for a while and commonly used on all transoceanic racers these days who often are sailing in the wrong season on trans equitorial passages.

what is interesting is that it is becoming affordable to mainstream yachting and the new generation of yachts are becoming faster and more autonomous with built in redundancy ie,multiple auto pilots,passive power generation, real time sat data comms etc
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Old 16-11-2019, 19:00   #92
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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possibly influential,due to their social media presence,but the technology has been there for a while and commonly used on all transoceanic racers these days who often are sailing in the wrong season on trans equitorial passages.

what is interesting is that it is becoming affordable to mainstream yachting and the new generation of yachts are becoming faster and autonomous with built in redundancy ie,multiple auto pilots,passive power generation,sat data
comms etc
I'd just offer concern that schmucks like me might become too emboldened with the technology such that the # of rescues at sea would go up as people pushed their luck. I assume that this would, in the long-term, have a deleterious effect on rescue efforts and/or other hard to predict issues that the larger community wouldn't like.

As it is, people have enough problems with the conservative routes and more than a few cruisers don't even buy into AIS. Certainly high-end types can afford all the best and do better, but it's a slippery slope.
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Old 16-11-2019, 19:04   #93
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La Vagabonde's crossing

I think the number of people that can actually afford all the bells and whistles to say noting of the boat, then factor the number of those people who actually will, and you end up with I believe a pretty small number.

Of course I’ve been wrong before, I guess there are more idle rich than I suppose.

However add that to the theoretical speed I keep hearing bout, but don’t see, I see speeds more in line with what we are seeing here, sure maybe they can go much faster, but maybe it’s safer and not so hard on the boat, as well as the people to not to?
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Old 16-11-2019, 19:04   #94
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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the technology has been there for a while and commonly used on all transoceanic racers
Yea, I’ve been using grib files at sea since around 2000. The quality of the forecasts has vastly improved, as has the comm equipment, since then. In the early days I would really only look at 2 days forecast. Now, while you can’t trust the details at all, the 16 day forecast does give you a useful feeling for the longer term routing/options/risk possibilities.

It does sometimes allow you to see “clever” possibilities. It usually gives you a decent about of warning So you can prepare for changes coming. And sometime it is just dead wrong even about “current conditions”.
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Old 16-11-2019, 19:14   #95
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

[QUOTE=DDouglasone;3017351]They're basically between Hatteras and Bermuda with 30kts from the nne with storms approaching from the sw and s. [quote]


I'm not seeing that at all. Winds have been from south / south west.


And in another 24 hours they could be seeing gusts up to 40 kts from the same direction with seas to 4 m.
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Old 16-11-2019, 19:19   #96
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Having been a professional pilot for a lot of my life, I can tell you with absolute certainty that forecasts are often wrong, and I’m talking about today’s forecasts, not those several days away.
You start believing the weather guessers and your rolling the dice, eventually your going to come up snake eyes.
Pretty good point.
The fancy graphics on PredictWind for 7 days out look exactly like the fancy graphics for the same afternoon. I think some people misunderstand this. Zatara showed planning from Fiji to NZ where they seemed to take the future picture as gospel.

LaVagabonde has a baby onboard for a seriously challenging crossing. I took flak from concerned grandparents of a baby we took on a simple day sail. Can't imagine the grandparent angst for this one.
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Old 16-11-2019, 19:40   #97
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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I think you mean "downwind".
Yes. Thanks for catching that.
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Old 16-11-2019, 19:43   #98
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Yea, I’ve been using grib files at sea since around 2000. The quality of the forecasts has vastly improved, as has the comm equipment, since then. In the early days I would really only look at 2 days forecast. Now, while you can’t trust the details at all, the 16 day forecast does give you a useful feeling for the longer term routing/options/risk possibilities.

It does sometimes allow you to see “clever” possibilities. It usually gives you a decent about of warning So you can prepare for changes coming. And sometime it is just dead wrong even about “current conditions”.
i think if you want to use the technology succesfully you also need to have the confidence and ability to sail your boat in 40 knots,and not be heaving too in those conditions or stuck in port.

most cruising yachts use the technology to sail in benign conditions!
many of them end up motoring downwind on ocean passages to arrive in the next port before the reinforced trades arrive,and those are the ones who sail in the correct season!

given that crews are often just couples i guess that is fair enough,but it is not really sailing,more RVing (with sails for those 10-15 knot days.)

funny thing is after spending a week with 40 knots blowing you along,when it drops to 30 knots and the speed drops to 4knots you want to get out and put some more sail up,do some dishes,have a wash ,cook some proper food etc.
its all realative,considering you probably would not leave port in 30 knots to start a voyage.
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Old 16-11-2019, 19:57   #99
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Having been a professional pilot for a lot of my life, I can tell you with absolute certainty that forecasts are often wrong, and I’m talking about today’s forecasts, not those several days away.
You start believing the weather guessers and your rolling the dice, eventually your going to come up snake eyes.

Now if you have to go, then by all means use every resource there is, I wouldn’t even be above sacrificing a chicken or two, but intentionally going out to dance with a Hurricane is well, foolish.

Always remember the Titanic...
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Old 16-11-2019, 22:09   #100
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by atoll View Post
i think if you want to use the technology succesfully you also need to have the confidence and ability to sail your boat in 40 knots,and not be heaving too in those conditions or stuck in port.

most cruising yachts use the technology to sail in benign conditions!
many of them end up motoring downwind on ocean passages to arrive in the next port before the reinforced trades arrive,and those are the ones who sail in the correct season!

given that crews are often just couples i guess that is fair enough,but it is not really sailing,more RVing (with sails for those 10-15 knot days.)

funny thing is after spending a week with 40 knots blowing you along,when it drops to 30 knots and the speed drops to 4knots you want to get out and put some more sail up,do some dishes,have a wash ,cook some proper food etc.
its all realative,considering you probably would not leave port in 30 knots to start a voyage.
Very good point Atoll! And anything less than 20kt and you are effectively becalmed. I'm a bit intrigued to reverse thinking about sailing seasons.

Some "wussies" seem to think a 16 year old is a baby but some youngsters are better sailors than any of them, or me, will ever be.
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Old 16-11-2019, 22:55   #101
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

They are doing 8+knots CMG, and will have effectively downwind sailing conditions for more than a week coming.
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Old 16-11-2019, 22:58   #102
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Interview with Riley on ABC radio:

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/perth/p...ouple/11700864

He says he's got the best weather router in the world helping them. Sounds pretty impressed with you Greta. It sure will make for some interesting YouTube episodes.
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Old 16-11-2019, 23:48   #103
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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They are doing 8+knots CMG, and will have effectively downwind sailing conditions for more than a week coming.

Between 5 and 7.5 knots over the last 4 hours and their last 2 hours looks like they may be changing course for Bermuda (currently tracking around 100°)
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Old 16-11-2019, 23:51   #104
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

[QUOTE=StuM;3017402][QUOTE=DDouglasone;3017351]They're basically between Hatteras and Bermuda with 30kts from the nne with storms approaching from the sw and s.
Quote:


I'm not seeing that at all. Winds have been from south / south west.


And in another 24 hours they could be seeing gusts up to 40 kts from the same direction with seas to 4 m.
I went to windy.com to have a look at current winds/gusts in the area.
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Old 17-11-2019, 00:09   #105
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Budawang View Post
Interview with Riley on ABC radio:

https://www.abc.net.au/radio/perth/p...ouple/11700864

He says he's got the best weather router in the world helping them. Sounds pretty impressed with you Greta. It sure will make for some interesting YouTube episodes.

I wonder if he still feels the same way after a few days at sea with her
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