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Old 16-11-2019, 12:45   #76
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
And if they maintain their heading they'll be upwind of Bermuda. But still a long way's off so too early to say if they're planning to stop.
I think you mean "downwind".


In 36 hours, the models show winds from south and they will be about 75 NM north of Bermuda if they hold their current track.
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Old 16-11-2019, 12:52   #77
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

FWIW, Elayna posted on instagram:
Quote:
Day 3. Long days and long nights for this one. It’s a tough life being a captain. Making all of the tough decisions, checking the weather over and over. A week ago we were cruising the Chesapeake, thinking we had a month to get down to Charleston for the winter.. and then we were running around like headless chooks trying to get our boat ready for this trip. HAHA. Life just continues to surprise us. Luckily, we love that and we can’t wait to see what events the remaining weeks bring. It’s the beauty of having a home and a job that moves around with you. This mission was just what we needed ����. We’re headed towards Bermuda right now (but not stopping by, as much as I’d love to!). I’ll let Riley give you a full weather update when he wakes up.

Ps we have the best crew!! @_nikkihenderson is an unbelievably good sailor and @gretathunberg is keeping @lenny.lavagabonde entertained for hours. Gretas dad is on coffee duty as well as cleaning and he also makes us laugh. Spirits are high onboard La Vagabonde. #sailinglavagabonde #gretathunberg
So they are skipping Bermuda at this point.

And Riley posted :
Quote:
La Vagabonde is currently 33°11’N 72°10’W . We’re safe and south of the 60 knot gusts and 6m waves according to all weather models we are running onboard.

A massive thanks to @predict_wind for helping us out here and our northern hemisphere man Christian Dumard. It’ll be a very rough night ahead but we’re looking good! #sailinglavagabonde
So they do have some external weather routing going on.
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Old 16-11-2019, 13:10   #78
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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And with less stress on the rig, less stress on the structure?
Wind stresses the rig, seas stress the structure..
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Old 16-11-2019, 13:16   #79
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Wind stresses the rig, seas stress the hull.


And an overly stressed rig also stresses the hulls.
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Old 16-11-2019, 13:48   #80
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Jeeze, sustained 30kt winds where they are.

Gonna be fun! ��
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Old 16-11-2019, 15:27   #81
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

I continue to be a bit surprised at the boat speed. The wind angle has now rotated decently far back and they did not accelerate - still at 7.3 kts.

The pictures they have posted don't make the sea state look bad at all - and yea I know photos flatten the sea and I am factoring that in - there are like not even any white caps visible.

It could be a conscious 'routing' decision. IDK. Not criticizing, they have done well so far, I am curious about it, had expected different - thought they would be doing at least 9 kts in these conditions.
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Old 16-11-2019, 15:44   #82
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

The same thoughts ran through my head. My only conclusion is they are being extremely conservative. It's a long run, and it's just beginning. They carry two youngsters on board. In a way they are shorthanded, they end up being a crew of three if antyhing. On one hand you expect cat numbers. On the other, you understand they are sailing to get there, and I would as skipper probably err on the side of caution too.

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I continue to be a bit surprised at the boat speed. The wind angle has now rotated decently far back and they did not accelerate - still at 7.3 kts.

thought they would be doing at least 9 kts in these conditions.
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Old 16-11-2019, 16:06   #83
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Maybe Nikki figures reaching Lisbon in upto16 days with an unbroken boat is good enough..
Theres a night train with sleeping coaches from Lisbon to Madrid.
Its a long way to go yet with only the Azores in between.
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Old 16-11-2019, 16:06   #84
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
I continue to be a bit surprised at the boat speed. The wind angle has now rotated decently far back and they did not accelerate - still at 7.3 kts.

The pictures they have posted don't make the sea state look bad at all - and yea I know photos flatten the sea and I am factoring that in - there are like not even any white caps visible.

It could be a conscious 'routing' decision. IDK. Not criticizing, they have done well so far, I am curious about it, had expected different - thought they would be doing at least 9 kts in these conditions.

It’s a relatively lightweight boat and average speeds above 8 knots (means surges into low teens) in a steep sea are uncomfortable due to launching off waves. We have an Outremer 55 and even with 3m more waterline and some extra weight we also limit our speed if the seas are rough.

As has been pointed out, they are not racing and are short handed. That means being reefed for the gusts at all times, which means underpowered during the average and lulls. With shifting and changing wind strengths it’s a PITA but also keeps the rig stresses low and lessens the movement on board.
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Old 16-11-2019, 16:20   #85
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Looks perfectly find for them no? 1.8m waves and winds in the 20s gusting over 30 but calming down after Monday. They are by Bermuda so well away from those nasty deep dark purple zones



Blogging equipment? I've probably got more than they have and it would be less than 15kg in weight easily.

I am curious though, what is the interest in the weather for this crossing opposed to say Uma's crossing a while back, or Delos going east to west?
This maybe interesting because they are doing it at the wrong time of the year.
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Old 16-11-2019, 16:44   #86
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

F
Quote:
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Wind stresses the rig, seas stress the structure..
& those climate-change hysterics are going to stress environment, finances & nerves...
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Old 16-11-2019, 16:56   #87
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by svlamorocha View Post
This maybe interesting because they are doing it at the wrong time of the year.
i find it interesting because they are going against the conventional wisdom of jimmy cornell's yachting guides,who had plagarised the older admiralty "ocean passages of the world" that was taken from wisdom gained from all the square rigger routes that crossed the atlantic and other oceans under sail at any time of the year.

given that the square riggers had very few navigation aids and relied on the stars , planets,sea state ,clouds and barometric pressure for nav and weather observation.

the interesting part is with technology and a bit of skill,that now with satellite weather forecasts,route prediction/planning and a vessel capable of making over 3degress (180nm) in 24 hours,can potentially dodge bad weather and safely cross oceans during hurricane season and remain with favourable winds in relative warm waters,whilst still making use of the prevailing westerly winds more common in higher lattitudes.
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Old 16-11-2019, 17:41   #88
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

They're basically between Hatteras and Bermuda with 30kts from the nne with storms approaching from the sw and s. Seas are probably are, or soon will be, very confused.
Which may account for slow progress.
Gonna be an interesting next 12-18 hrs.
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Old 16-11-2019, 18:20   #89
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Re atoll's comments:

I wonder if this going to be the most influential sailing event of the century, where we throw away the parroting of certain restrictions of geological and time limitations regarding of sailing. Based on smartness instead of strength (of vessels) we might create brand new routes and ways of transporting tourists from A to B. I'm am still sceptical though about their success, and a bit concerned how many future 'sailors' will try the same thing, and fail (potentially lost) because they don't realise the background effort put in thist stunt.
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Old 16-11-2019, 18:30   #90
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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the interesting part is with technology and a bit of skill,that now with satellite weather forecasts,route prediction/planning and a vessel capable of making over 3degress (180nm) in 24 hours,can potentially dodge bad weather and safely cross oceans during hurricane season and remain with favourable winds in relative warm waters,whilst still making use of the prevailing westerly winds more common in higher lattitudes.


Having been a professional pilot for a lot of my life, I can tell you with absolute certainty that forecasts are often wrong, and I’m talking about today’s forecasts, not those several days away.
You start believing the weather guessers and your rolling the dice, eventually your going to come up snake eyes.

Now if you have to go, then by all means use every resource there is, I wouldn’t even be above sacrificing a chicken or two, but intentionally going out to dance with a Hurricane is well, foolish.
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