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Old 19-11-2019, 08:53   #241
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by daletournier View Post
Actually id suggest it was a problem if blowin 50k, life gets much harder with wind like that, repairing anything in that wind is hard. I wonder if hes ever experienced 50k+ before? most trade wind sailors never see that kind of wind . Id prefer not to leave the cockpit when its blowin that hard.

I was surprised just how much wind 50k is when i experienced it at sea, its not 20k more than 30k, it seems alot more......but i admit Im a tad more fragile than the average cruisers forum sailor
Was quoting Nikki's statement as with the wind they had they were on minimum sail anyway.. and it appears they have since fixed it with the decrease in seas and weather.
For something to be done at the bow one slows the boat and sails downwind.. replacing a furling line is not rocket science.. and only hard work if the sail is right out and one has to hand furl it all in.. 1/2 a dozen turns on the drum, run though the feeds back to the cockpit and its done..
Good practice for Nikki, sounds like her first time doing it.
Glad all seems well otherwise.
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Old 19-11-2019, 09:00   #242
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Terje Vigen View Post
That was hours ago.
Say hello to Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...nd120#contents
Good grief.

I just pray La V. is not pressured and is smart enough to either dodge all these storms or at least turn back to Bermuda if it's not too late already.

Certainly interesting following along on this thread.

Worried about them all but especially the innocent.
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Old 19-11-2019, 09:02   #243
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by boatman61 View Post
...replacing a furling line is not rocket science.. and only hard work if the sail is right out and one has to hand furl it all in.. 1/2 a dozen turns on the drum, run though the feeds back to the cockpit and its done..
Good practice for Nikki, sounds like her first time doing it...
From her posting I understood that they had to use some brain cells as well (and not only elbow grease on the drum)
Maybe the line is lead through some internal piping back to the cockpit?
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Old 19-11-2019, 09:11   #244
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Terje Vigen View Post
From her posting I understood that they had to use some brain cells as well (and not only elbow grease on the drum)
Maybe the line is lead through some internal piping back to the cockpit?
Don't know their boat but the norm on all cats and monos I have sailed its an open faced drum with ring feed to one side then a series of blocks usually at the base of stanchions back to the cockpit.. the 1st block being the crucial one set at a height that allows the line to feed onto the drum as neatly as possible as the sail unfurls.. done wrong it leads to jamming.
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Old 19-11-2019, 09:16   #245
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Terje Vigen View Post
From her posting I understood that they had to use some brain cells as well (and not only elbow grease on the drum)
Maybe the line is lead through some internal piping back to the cockpit?
When a furling line breaks the sail generally unfurls, did this happen? trying to tame a unfurled headsail in big winds isnt always easy and shakes the crap out of the rig until it is under control.
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Old 19-11-2019, 09:24   #246
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

According to Nikki it had snapped a few days earlier and I remember them saying they kept making sail changes so either they have an inner or double forestay or.. they removed the genoa and have been on heavily reefed main and storm jib since.. minimal sail in other words.
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Old 19-11-2019, 09:53   #247
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Terje Vigen View Post
That was hours ago.
Say hello to Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...nd120#contents
yea, the Americans are just now catching up the euro's, which has been forecasting this closed circulation for several days.

So, we will see, but in all likelihood Euro model beats GFS again.

Confirms decision to slow down and let it get out front. If necessary, if the track or speed changes, they can still just fully park the boat and have a good meal or two.

But the system movement has been relatively consistent between the two models and over time, its just been a question of whether this more intense closed circulation would develop.
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Old 19-11-2019, 10:03   #248
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

euro model for 21st at noon:

Click image for larger version

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and GFS:

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now consistent - euro has the low center a bit higher
but the bigger inconsistency uncertainty is gone from the forecast models
which would feel good at sea - now know what you are dealing with and how to handle it.
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Old 19-11-2019, 10:42   #249
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Here are 'paired' 'hypothetical' (if they kept up cruising speed) routings - the top two are latest GFS and EURO going to the same upper (fastest theoretical) waypoint; and the bottom two are similarily euro and gfs going to the more relaxed waypoint. The models are quite close now, and the actual differences (average speed and such) between the two route options (upper and lower) are minimal.

Click image for larger version

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Now that the model uncertainty is resolved one can be a bit more comfortable looking at 'clever' more precise routing. But on the other hand, when you are playing with a circulating subtropical it pays to be extra careful and give it lots of distance.

I have the feeling they have agreed to a simple plan - just go due east at around 5kts until perhaps mid-night the 20th.
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Old 19-11-2019, 11:15   #250
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Here's probably what I would aim to do . . .

I think they could still benefit longer-term from gaining a little latitude, and short-term that also creates a bit more distance and time to the frontal system. So I would aim to head up just a bit at about 5 kts average.

Click image for larger version

Name:	slow <a title=route.jpg Views: 172 Size: 309.0 KB ID: 203407" style="margin: 2px" />

The X here is noon the 21st and you can see the front is a reasonable distance in front, and moving away pretty rapidly. That would feel 'safe enough' for me, as I could always park if things change.


This is the modeled speed, just cruising along with a small sail plan aiming for 5kt average (or a bit less)

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With this plan peak winds the night of the 20th, but below gale (still will be some gusts) - you could park early the 20th if you wanted even lower peaks but this would feel ok for me I think.

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and the angles are nice

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but as I said in post above, I do suspect their plan is 5kts due east, which seems equally fine.
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Old 19-11-2019, 11:24   #251
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Seen from my arm chair while also cooking the dinner and drawing on my very limited ocean crossing experience (zero), I think they're going too fast. That cold front will materialise in all its dark red glory about 30 hours from now, about 100 miles ahead of their current position. Seems they're cutting it tight. I would hold back more.
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Old 19-11-2019, 12:37   #252
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by HeinSdL View Post
Seen from my arm chair while also cooking the dinner and drawing on my very limited ocean crossing experience (zero), I think they're going too fast. That cold front will materialise in all its dark red glory about 30 hours from now, about 100 miles ahead of their current position. Seems they're cutting it tight. I would hold back more.
The front will be moving to NE quite fast so breaks on until the wind is from the west. After that if they hit it (south winds) just stop and wait a while for westerlies again..
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Old 19-11-2019, 13:44   #253
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by atoll View Post
wind speed is cubed ie X3,so yes a lot more than 20knots difference.


The force of wind speed increases as the square of the wind velocity not the cube!
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Old 19-11-2019, 13:56   #254
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by boatman61 View Post
Don't know their boat but the norm on all cats and monos I have sailed its an open faced drum with ring feed to one side then a series of blocks usually at the base of stanchions back to the cockpit.. the 1st block being the crucial one set at a height that allows the line to feed onto the drum as neatly as possible as the sail unfurls.. done wrong it leads to jamming.
In the US and EU seeing more new boats where the furling line dives into a fairlead and an under deck tube back to the cockpit. Usually at least one fairlead and two significant turning blocks. High friction but pretty. On cats - at least one fairlead five-plus blocks.
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Old 19-11-2019, 14:45   #255
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Auspicious View Post
In the US and EU seeing more new boats where the furling line dives into a fairlead and an under deck tube back to the cockpit. Usually at least one fairlead and two significant turning blocks. High friction but pretty. On cats - at least one fairlead five-plus blocks.
A quick check on the boats specs shows it has a single line furling system as opposed to the more common drum reefing.. the brain cells were likely used on how to rejoin it without it jamming or jumping the teeth.
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