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Old 16-11-2019, 10:58   #61
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by CatNewBee View Post
Nope.

It is quite irresponsible from the Vaga crew to do the trip with a baby under this conditions, just to bring this brat to Europe. She could have used any other safe transportation.


If brat is the definition of someone her age fighting for something that may greatly effect her generation so be it. I would think courageous would be a better word.
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Old 16-11-2019, 11:17   #62
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

i wish her handlers had suggested a solution instead of a purely tantrumming method of trying to prove a point. tantrumming gains nothing but contempt. sorry is fact. yes, programmed brat. screaming is so 3 yr old. figure a solution is more 16 yr old mentation.
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Old 16-11-2019, 11:20   #63
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Think I preferred it more when people were talking about the weather....
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Old 16-11-2019, 11:22   #64
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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It’s a great thing she is on a zero carbon footprint boat. No petroleum based products on that vessel, not a single zero carbon emitting processes used to make any of that technology.. Pffft
What did you expect, when inconsequential, publicityaddicted people get together ? BS to the nth power!
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Old 16-11-2019, 11:24   #65
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Without debating the issue, this is a hastily made, money driven, poor decision on many levels.

A person with martyr syndrome puts everyone else’s needs above his or her own so that he or she can suffer for the sake of others and thus give his or her life meaning. However, people with martyr syndrome often suffer needlessly while expecting those around them to shower them with affection because of their sacrifices.
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Old 16-11-2019, 11:24   #66
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

so, I tuned the polar down another 10% to reflect their continued 7.5 kts. The polar is still a bit faster than their average todate, but I dont want to over correct.

Interesting this reduction in speed improved their outlook. They move in behind that potentially developing low on the 22nd, and see a max of 30kts sustained. And 30 is currently the max for the whole route.

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the weather patterns do seem more quickly variable than normally, and that is on top of the typical inaccuracy beyond 2 or 3 days.

But I personally, would keep on keeping on, given the current picture.

Interestingly the fastest routing has them essentially passing thru the azores, but the high centers would allow them to sail a bit lower (latitude) in lighter winds.

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This is the weather picture as the approach the azores, the big "X" is the boat position at the shown weather time. And you can see there is wind down lower. I do have an option in the routing program to set cut points for motoring, and I have set it to zero because of the mission here - which means it absolutely routes to avoid any dead spots.
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Old 16-11-2019, 11:34   #67
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

They've been on a consistent heading for awhile now that's N of E, about 75º. Not really consistent with a stopover in Bermuda, unless its makes for a more comfortable ride.
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Old 16-11-2019, 11:39   #68
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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They've been on a consistent heading for awhile now that's N of E, about 75º. Not really consistent with a stopover in Bermuda, unless its makes for a more comfortable ride.
yea, agreed.

I would just guess that they have both shore routing and that pro they have onboard brought her own routing software (I sure would have), as so far they have been spot on. And the pro has seen a lot of stuff (southern ocean etc), this atm is not going to look too scary to her - just so long as the boat is holding together and everyone medical condition is ok (no dehydration from seasickness).
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Old 16-11-2019, 11:43   #69
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Exile View Post
They've been on a consistent heading for awhile now that's N of E, about 75º. Not really consistent with a stopover in Bermuda, unless its makes for a more comfortable ride.
i would guess they want more boat speed to move away from the low that some forecasts are showing moving more east,bringing backing S winds before moving off to the NE.
and still be close enough if nessacary to make a quick stop
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Old 16-11-2019, 11:55   #70
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

I am curious about the preparations made prior to the crossing. You don’t just wake up one day and say let’s sail to Spain. It takes time to inspect vessel,provision, and make crew planning decisions. When did they connect and begin working this out?
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Old 16-11-2019, 11:55   #71
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Forecast inconsistency is always a signal to take the most conservative routing strategy, and we have some pretty serious inconsistency atm.

This is euro model

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and this is GFS

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personally I would route using the euro data in this sort of situation.

Fortunately even in the euro scenario this secondary low is a pretty compact system. Just need to give the core a miss
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Old 16-11-2019, 12:01   #72
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by mikedefieslife View Post
They are by Bermuda so well away from those nasty deep dark purple zones

Still a long way to go before they are "by Bermuda" Another 270 NM to go as at 1900Z.


Last 7 hours: 50 NM @ 79°. (7.1 kt) At that rate another day and a half to be "by Bermuda".
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Old 16-11-2019, 12:09   #73
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Still a long way to go before they are "by Bermuda" Another 270 NM to go as at 1900Z.


Last 7 hours: 50 NM @ 79°. (7.1 kt) At that rate another day and a half to be "by Bermuda".
And if they maintain their heading they'll be upwind of Bermuda. But still a long way's off so too early to say if they're planning to stop.

At least by my eye it looks to be a "complex" weather scenario they're navigating through, but probably not such a big deal for the pro they have onboard.
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Old 16-11-2019, 12:19   #74
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

just looking at bermuda . . . .

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the routing has them heading slightly above but pretty close until tomorrow (noon utc). So they don't need to make a decision until then.

Tomorrow they look at the forecasts and see what they think about this low, and either turn to follow the routing, or keep going a bit lower to make Bermuda more of an option.
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Old 16-11-2019, 12:26   #75
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Delos is actually going west to east (not east to west as previously mentioned) they left Florida a short while ago,planning a Bermuda Azores trip. Uma arrived in uk for the Southampton boat show via North Atlantic and put up a short video most days.
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