Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Macblaze

Oooh, skirting the ad hominum. And I thought this was the bear-poking thread—at least to some people.

You're bear poking?


Have you got links to analysis on lockdown vs no lockdown or are you just here to eat some popcorn?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by tp12

Still keen to see some more modelling on lockdowns Vs no lockdowns if anyone can link it.

You have the links, and we all know you can see them. Why do you pretend otherwise? What kind of stupid game is this? Post 709.


Also note that "vs no lockdown" is not the question -- no one proposes no measures at all. It is a big fallacy to try to frame the question as "lockdown" vs "no lockdown". Every country chooses from a menu of different measures to control the epidemic. You have to analyze each measure; the choice is NOT binary.

[Dockhead]

I've been praising the openness and science-drivenness of the policy-making in the Nordic countries. Now today I am a little embarassed, after reading this:


https://www.thelocal.dk/20200529/lea...-health-agency


This is crazy! Emails leaked by someone in the Danish Health Authority shows that the Danish prime minister fudged the infection rate -- supressed news of a drop in the r0 rate -- to justify a lockdown which the Health Authority considered unjustified!!


". . . This allowed the government to ignore the authority's opinion that Covid-19 was not a sufficiently dangerous disease to permit the government to impose compulsory interventions on the public under Denmark's epidemic law.

"As late as March 15, the Danish health Authority, argued there was insufficient ground for banning public events and gatherings of ten people under the law."


Yikes! This is brewing up as a real political scandal! It's very uncharacteristic of Nordic political culture.

[Montanan]

Norway and Denmark drop mutual border controls - but exclude Sweden

Norway’s prime minister, Erna Solberg, said at a simultaneous Oslo event that Norway would admit only Danish citizens for now, but that her government was talking to Sweden, Finland and Iceland about including them at a later date.

Solberg said she had twice spoken to the Swedish prime minister, Stefan Löfven, but had entered a bilateral agreement with Denmark “because we have a similar infection situation … The infection situation looks different in Sweden”.

While her objective was “a common Nordic regulatory framework”, she said, “it is going to be hardest to find a solution for Sweden. But there are regions in Sweden with a low level of infection where we might be able to find a solution.

Sweden’s 4,350 deaths represent a toll of 419 per million inhabitants, compared with 44 in Norway, 98 in Denmark and 57 in Finland. Its per million tally is, however, lower than the corresponding figures of 548, 570 and 580 in Italy, the UK and Spain.

Frederiksen, who placed Denmark in strict lockdown as early as 11 March, said she hoped solutions might be found to allow travel between Denmark and certain Swedish regions. A decision on travel from other countries in Europe’s passport-free Schengen zone would be taken later, she said.

From 15 June, Finnish, Norwegian and Icelandic visitors to Denmark may visit Copenhagen for the day but may not stay overnight, the government said, while visitors to other parts of the country would have to book in advance to stay at least six nights.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...en-coronavirus

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Norway and Denmark drop mutual border controls - but exclude Sweden

Norway’s prime minister, Erna Solberg, said at a simultaneous Oslo event that Norway would admit only Danish citizens for now, but that her government was talking to Sweden, Finland and Iceland about including them at a later date.

Solberg said she had twice spoken to the Swedish prime minister, Stefan Löfven, but had entered a bilateral agreement with Denmark “because we have a similar infection situation … The infection situation looks different in Sweden”.

While her objective was “a common Nordic regulatory framework”, she said, “it is going to be hardest to find a solution for Sweden. But there are regions in Sweden with a low level of infection where we might be able to find a solution.

Sweden’s 4,350 deaths represent a toll of 419 per million inhabitants, compared with 44 in Norway, 98 in Denmark and 57 in Finland. Its per million tally is, however, lower than the corresponding figures of 548, 570 and 580 in Italy, the UK and Spain.

Frederiksen, who placed Denmark in strict lockdown as early as 11 March, said she hoped solutions might be found to allow travel between Denmark and certain Swedish regions. A decision on travel from other countries in Europe’s passport-free Schengen zone would be taken later, she said.

From 15 June, Finnish, Norwegian and Icelandic visitors to Denmark may visit Copenhagen for the day but may not stay overnight, the government said, while visitors to other parts of the country would have to book in advance to stay at least six nights.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...en-coronavirus

Note that "strict lockdown" is factually incorrect in regard to Denmark. There was never any "lockdown" in Denmark in the sense it's used in other countries -- never any stay at home orders, businesses and factories never closed, small gatherings never banned.



It's understandable at first glance that borders would not open between Sweden and Nordic neighbors, because the epidemic is much more progressed in Sweden and the populations in the other Nordic countries are almost completely vulnerable.

However, the Swedish province opposite Denmark -- Skania -- has the same or lower level of infection than Denmark, so people around the Oresund are angry about this decision. A lot of separated friends and business partners.

Denmark is, however, allowing lovers to cross the border from Sweden, other Nordic countries, or Germany -- provided you can show 6 months of chats or Facebook posts or other evidence that you in a LTR: https://www.thelocal.dk/20200526/reu...-denmark-again, and provided you've actually met in person and it's not just an online romance. I wouldn't like to be the border guard trying to evaluate those cases

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

This is crazy! Emails leaked by someone in the Danish Health Authority shows that the Danish prime minister fudged the infection rate -- supressed news of a drop in the r0 rate -- to justify a lockdown which the Health Authority considered unjustified!!


". . . This allowed the government to ignore the authority's opinion that Covid-19 was not a sufficiently dangerous disease to permit the government to impose compulsory interventions on the public under Denmark's epidemic law.

"As late as March 15, the Danish health Authority, argued there was insufficient ground for banning public events and gatherings of ten people under the law."


Yikes! This is brewing up as a real political scandal! It's very uncharacteristic of Nordic political culture.

Full blown political scandal with formal investigation:


https://www.thelocal.dk/20200528/exp...ng-of-pandemic


Into why the government ordered "lockdown" against the advice of the Danish Health Authority, and suppressed data showing that it was unnecessary.



"The decision follows reports in several newspapers indicating that Denmark's government opted for a much more restrictive lockdown than its own health agencies had recommended.

"Denmark's prime minister Mette Frederiksen has been pushing for the evaluation of the government's actions to be organised by the ministry of justice, but has been blocked by the other parties.

"Nick Hekkerup, Denmark's justice minister, last week told Politiken that it was still too early to begin appraising the successes and failures of the response, as the crisis was far from other."

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Norway and Denmark drop mutual border controls - but exclude Sweden

Norway’s prime minister, Erna Solberg, said at a simultaneous Oslo event that Norway would admit only Danish citizens for now, but that her government was talking to Sweden, Finland and Iceland about including them at a later date.

Solberg said she had twice spoken to the Swedish prime minister, Stefan Löfven, but had entered a bilateral agreement with Denmark “because we have a similar infection situation … The infection situation looks different in Sweden”.

While her objective was “a common Nordic regulatory framework”, she said, “it is going to be hardest to find a solution for Sweden. But there are regions in Sweden with a low level of infection where we might be able to find a solution.

Sweden’s 4,350 deaths represent a toll of 419 per million inhabitants, compared with 44 in Norway, 98 in Denmark and 57 in Finland. Its per million tally is, however, lower than the corresponding figures of 548, 570 and 580 in Italy, the UK and Spain.

Frederiksen, who placed Denmark in strict lockdown as early as 11 March, said she hoped solutions might be found to allow travel between Denmark and certain Swedish regions. A decision on travel from other countries in Europe’s passport-free Schengen zone would be taken later, she said.

From 15 June, Finnish, Norwegian and Icelandic visitors to Denmark may visit Copenhagen for the day but may not stay overnight, the government said, while visitors to other parts of the country would have to book in advance to stay at least six nights.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...en-coronavirus

Certainly puts to bed any notion of a 'Nordic-wide' consensus, or any consensus for that matter, that Sweden has things under control. Solberg doesn't want to open Norway to the risk level of Sweden and fair enough. The numbers bear that out. This is smart.

Especially this comparison between Sweden (8th on list with 419 deaths per million) to Italy (548 - 6th on the list), UK (570 - 5th on the list) and Spain (580 - 4th on the list). Sweden isn't that far in numbers and is being compared to some of the worst hit countries in the world. This comparison is only useful to say that Sweden is not doing the worst globally.

International travel will look like this at the first stage of return, whenever that is. Australia is negotiating for the same thing with New Zealand and there are other countries, who also have their risk level reduced, who are wanting to join that bubble. Depending of course, on their risk appetite. This will have economic benefits that, along with being able to stage the lifting of restrictions earlier, that countries with high residual risk levels won't have. Solberg's position with Sweden is a good example of what that will look like.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by tp12

Certainly puts to bed any notion of a 'Nordic-wide' consensus, or any consensus for that matter, that Sweden has things under control. Solberg doesn't want to open Norway to the risk level of Sweden and fair enough. The numbers bear that out. This is smart.. . . ..

One thing does not logically follow from the other. The population in Norway is too vulnerable, to have a lot of visitors from a country where the epidemic is further along, as they Norwegians say. You are seeing only what you want to see in all of this

[Dockhead]

Estonia opened COMPLETELY on Monday:


https://vm.ee/en


That was unexpected! Now anyone from any European country can come to Estonia. Great news for Baltic cruisers.

[Dockhead]

But here is the bad news:

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200529/den...thers-tourists

Denmark apparently has no intention of opening generally this summer. This is very bad. Even Norwegians are not allowed to stay in Copenhagen -- they must prove that they have a place to stay outside of Copenhagen.

What they are doing is negotiating with other Nordic countries to connect REGIONS with similar infection rates. So it means that the border between Sweden and Denmark may open to re-connect the Oresund region, but Finland and Denmark may NOT open to each other because there are no regions to connect, and the infection rate in Copenhagen is much higher than in Helsinki.

This really throws a monkey wrench into everything. I'm not even sure I can get back to my berth in Denmark after my summer cruise -- damn!

[Dockhead]

According to this: https://www.timesunion.com/news/arti...s-15302900.php Danish borders will be open only to Norwegians, Germans, and Icelanders until after summer. Not to Finns. Damn!! This is contrary to all expectations, and puts all my plans in doubt. I will not be able to get back to my berth in Denmark; maybe I should give it up.



This will affect a lot of Baltic cruisers' plans.

[Montanan]

Controlled re-opening of the Danish borders
Updated 29/5/20

https://www.visitdenmark.com/denmark...ls/coronavirus

The Danish government closed the borders with Denmark to control the spread of the corona virus. Danish citizens are allowed to re-enter the country and visitors from other countries can now enter Denmark again under certain conditions.

From June 15 2020, tourists from Germany, Norway and Iceland are allowed to return to Denmark and must show documentation of a valid booking on their arrival. This booking must be for a stay taking place outside the capital Copenhagen (Copenhagen Municipality and Frederiksberg Municipality) and must last at least six nights. Residences with the postcodes 1000 through to 2500 are considered to be in those locations. Tourists are allowed to visit Copenhagen but their stay must be outside it.

If a tourist wishing to enter shows clear signs of sickness, for example a cough, fever, or similar, they will not be allowed to cross the border.

For all other countries, the border closure is in operation until August 31. Borders may reopen earlier for Sweden and Finland.

From May 25, people with a permanent residence in one of the five Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden) or Germany will be allowed to re-enter Denmark if they fall into the following categories:

People who own a summer house in Denmark
Persons who have a relationship with a person living in Denmark or who are engaged to a person living in Denmark
People who have grandparents in Denmark
Business trips to and from Denmark if they are carried out responsibly in terms of health, may be resumed if the applicable precautionary measures are followed. Business trips must comply with industry-specific security precautions.
Except for the above, general family visits, tourism trips, business trips, study trips or similar are not grounds for entry into Denmark that are worthy of recognition. For further information on the documentation required to prove you have a relationship with someone living in Denmark,

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

. . . precautions.
Except for the above, general family visits, tourism trips, business trips, study trips or similar are not grounds for entry into Denmark that are worthy of recognition. . . .

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

You just wait and see. I think your boat slip in Denmark can be counted as a summerhouse
ps. Besides if you can go to the allowed countries for a couple of weeks and from there to Denmark. It was not restricted by nationality or residence but only where you are coming from AFAIK

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

You just wait and see. I think your boat slip in Denmark can be counted as a summerhouse

Well, they let me in two days after the borders closed. And were very friendly about it.


But damn -- can't they just open the borders? To Finns at least???? What possible benefit is closing the borders to other countries with lower infection rates??