Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by barnakiel

ARC, that rally for cruisers, has just announced some guidelines on their website.


Probably relevant to those sailing out of EU North this summer to join the fleet in the Canaries.



The Canaries have not announced any take on this yet. Apparently sailing will be welcomed past July 1st.


Except no-one knows what if there is a second wave in the fall!


It would be pretty hopeless to leave the continent only to be trapped in Las Palmas later.

b.

Astute perspective. It would be foolhardy to cruise other than locally.

Copied from the Finish State Department website. English Translation there of. https://um.fi/ajankohtaista/-/asset_...mista-edelleen

Similar warnings have been in place since early March worldwide, nothing has changed in this regard.

"The corona pandemic is a global threat - avoid further travel

The coronavirus and its spread continue to pose a major global risk. Due to a pandemic, the situation in any country or region can change suddenly and unpredictably.

Restrictions in different countries may also surprise the tourist: local quarantine regulations, restrictions on movement, traffic congestion, restrictions on leaving the country, closures of services, incl. food availability apply to everyone. Several countries still have quarantine regulations in place that must be followed. Quarantines can be imposed abroad on different grounds and with a lower threshold than in Finland.

Another risk factor for travel is that booked flights or other connections may be canceled abruptly and the outbound or return journey will be blocked. Airlines may also require passengers to wear face masks, which the passenger must book with them. Traveling in itself increases the risk of infection.

The ability of the State Department to help those in need in a pandemic situation is limited. Globally, exceptional circumstances or emergencies and fundamental rights exist or may be restricted in almost all countries. Travel insurance may not necessarily help in a pandemic situation either.

Avoid unnecessary travel

The State Department's worldwide travel recommendation is: “avoid unnecessary travel”. Unnecessary travel in a pandemic situation means, for example, leisure trips. In the Ministry for Foreign Affairs' country-specific travel bulletins, travel recommendations may be even stronger because of war, for example."

[Montanan]

Hmmm,

Coronavirus May Be a Blood Vessel Disease, Which Explains Everything
Many of the infection’s bizarre symptoms have one thing in common

https://elemental.medium.com/coronav...g-2c4032481ab2

In April, blood clots emerged as one of the many mysterious symptoms attributed to Covid-19, a disease that had initially been thought to largely affect the lungs in the form of pneumonia. Quickly after came reports of young people dying due to coronavirus-related strokes. Next it was Covid toes — painful red or purple digits.

What do all of these symptoms have in common?

An impairment in blood circulation. Add in the fact that 40% of deaths from Covid-19 are related to cardiovascular complications, and the disease starts to look like a vascular infection instead of a purely respiratory one.
Months into the pandemic, there is now a growing body of evidence to support the theory that the novel coronavirus can infect blood vessels, which could explain not only the high prevalence of blood clots, strokes, and heart attacks, but also provide an answer for the diverse set of head-to-toe symptoms that have emerged.

“All these Covid-associated complications were a mystery. We see blood clotting, we see kidney damage, we see inflammation of the heart, we see stroke, we see encephalitis [swelling of the brain],” says William Li, MD, president of the Angiogenesis Foundation. “A whole myriad of seemingly unconnected phenomena that you do not normally see with SARS or H1N1 or, frankly, most infectious diseases.”

. . .

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Sweden is rushing to launch a formal inquiry into its no-lockdown coronavirus strategy, as its death rate remains among the world's highest

Sweden is accelerating its review into the success of its coronavirus strategy, which controversially did not involve a lockdown and kept many businesses open.

Prime Minister Stefan Löfven previously said Sweden would hold an inquiry after the outbreak, but told the Aftonbladet newspaper on Monday that a commission would be appointed sooner.

Sweden is facing criticism as its death toll rises to one of the world's highest. It is also not meeting its target for testing.

Around half of Swedish virus deaths take place in care homes, a major point of contention.

But the government has said the no-lockdown plan is helping to reduce the chance a second wave, and said it's not clear if a lockdown would have had a better result.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/sweden-ru...122428968.html

As my username indicates I am a Montanan, our State locked down early literally minutes before the first documented death by Covid and is now entering into a Phase 2 of reopening, Phase 1 was Stay At Home starting March 26th. The State has a population of just over 1 million thus about 1/10th that of Sweden. Our State has recorded 523 confirmed cases and 17 deaths. 461 have recovered and there are 41 active cases. Test, trace and isolate protocols are in place and testing if ramping with a goal to be at 60,000+ per month. The total number of tests completed in the state increased to 40,657 with 859 tests completed during the previous 24-hour reporting period. Presently, two [2] people are hospitalized. We added 4 new cases yesterday.

We are having a bit of an outbreak in a couple of prisons. By comparison to most other places in the USA and much of Europe, Montana has so far progressed well through the pandemic [as have the States of Hawaii and Alaska].

We fear that new infections may arise as the fourteen day quarantine upon entry to the State has been lifted as of June 1st and that now allows for out of state tourism to initiate, especially being drawn to the two major national parks [Yellowstone and Glacier] which each park individually having summer time visitors of more than double of our State's entire resident population. Vast waves of tourists arrive in June, July and August. The four seasons of Montana being June, July, August and Winter.

The Canadian border forms the entirety of the northern border of Montana and remains closed to just essential travel and the Canadian border and Canada's adjoining National Park form the northern boundary of Glacier National Park. We miss our Canadian neighbors. The Blackfoot Nation has closed up its large reservation from non-member travel which effectively closes access to Glacier National Park from the East entrances and that leaves just the single western entrance to the National Park which Park is slated to have limited service opening in mid-June. Yellowstone National Park is opened for access from the State of Wyoming side but remains closed from the Montana side which is typically the major entry side to the very popular and famous park. Montana is expected to open access around mid-June. Yellowstone and Glacier will operate with greatly reduced services and internal access restrictions and are closely coordinating with the State, County and local municipalities as to the opening and operation of the parks. The local gateway towns rely heavily on Park tourism, but also fear the contagion that has essentially been not community spread in those communities to date. They welcome the tourists but not the virus.

This will not be a normal summer from a travel or tourism perspective.

Hope everyone stays healthy and safe and aids by keeping social distancing and limiting contacts to essential purposes.

Let's see who they appoint to run the inquiry. It may very well end up being an attempt to justify their approach instead of any genuine attempt to understand the approach. It's certainly a welcome piece of news.


On worldometers data they tied with France for 7th on the deaths/million of population today. Tomorrow they'll take 7th outright.

[Jonte]

Stefan Löven didn't want the inquiry before the pandemic was over now the other parties force him to take the decision.

Anders Tegnel still believes Sweden's way is working good.
He said if it happens again and we now what we now we should end up somewhere between what we do and the rest of the world.

Probably stop visiting on elderly care home's . And they should be better prepared there.

And maybe not closing high school cause it probably didn't have much effect.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Jonte

Stefan Löven didn't want the inquiry before the pandemic was over now the other parties force him to take the decision.

Anders Tegnel still believes Sweden's way is working good.
He said if it happens again and we now what we now we should end up somewhere between what we do and the rest of the world.

Probably stop visiting on elderly care home's . And they should be better prepared there.

And maybe not closing high school cause it probably didn't have much effect.

There is a lot of soul-searching going on everywhere, where there is any intellectual honesty. Last week the Norwegian health chief declared that the lockdown there (if you can call it that) was a mistake. Policies were being made in the absence of any real knowledge about how the epidemic works. And although we know more now, it's still very little.

It's too early to make conclusions. This is just the beginning of this thing.

[Montanan]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/architect...132103531.html

The architect of Sweden's no-lockdown plan suggested the strategy was a mistake based on what we now know about the coronavirus

Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, told Swedish radio station Sveriges Radio on Wednesday that while the country would have implemented tougher restrictions, they would still likely not have been as strict as in many countries.

"If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,"

Sweden's coronavirus strategy has differed so widely from the rest of the world that, if found to be successful, it could guide other countries as they open up and also be used to scrutinize countries that implemented harsh lockdowns.

But Sweden's death rate has steadily risen to among the highest in the world.

As of Wednesday, the country has recorded 40,803 coronavirus infections and over 4,400 deaths — yielding a death rate of over 10%.

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Montanan

https://www.yahoo.com/news/architect...132103531.html

The architect of Sweden's no-lockdown plan suggested the strategy was a mistake based on what we now know about the coronavirus

Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, told Swedish radio station Sveriges Radio on Wednesday that while the country would have implemented tougher restrictions, they would still likely not have been as strict as in many countries.

"If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done,"

Sweden's coronavirus strategy has differed so widely from the rest of the world that, if found to be successful, it could guide other countries as they open up and also be used to scrutinize countries that implemented harsh lockdowns.

But Sweden's death rate has steadily risen to among the highest in the world.

As of Wednesday, the country has recorded 40,803 coronavirus infections and over 4,400 deaths — yielding a death rate of over 10%.

And as of today they're now 7th in the world for deaths per million and closing on Italy in 6th. After previously admitting he underestimated the death toll it's good to see him saying this. Hopefully he'll come to the understanding that he didn't need today's knowledge, he just needed to understand what he didn't know and not make assumptions.

[Jonte]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

There is a lot of soul-searching going on everywhere, where there is any intellectual honesty. Last week the Norwegian health chief declared that the lockdown there (if you can call it that) was a mistake. Policies were being made in the absence of any real knowledge about how the epidemic works. And although we know more now, it's still very little.

It's too early to make conclusions. This is just the beginning of this thing.

Yes I suppose it is.

But they reported that tourists start coming to Sweden. By land anyway. So the cruisers may not be far away.

Maybe it doesn't help in you're planning but it's some good news anyway.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Jonte

Yes I suppose it is.

But they reported that tourists start coming to Sweden. By land anyway. So the cruisers may not be far away.

Maybe it doesn't help in you're planning but it's some good news anyway.

Yes, well, other than borders, things start to be normal again. Everything is open everywhere in the Nordics -- except borders. This is where I spent the evening in Helsinki yesterday:



People have missed restaurants and social life; they are going after it in a big way. First evening I've spent in a restaurant in a couple of months; it was nice, let me tell you.

The social distancing does not seem very good. In Denmark they had to close a popular beach because people were just packing it in. We shall see whether there is a new wave of infections.

My own summer plans are now clear. I will sail to Germany on the 15th, when that will be allowed. From there I will sail to the top of the Gulf of Bothnia. One of my crew has a house up there. It's just 40 miles below the Arctic Circle; it will be great to get back to those latitudes. Then we will cruise the Höga Kusten and the Archipelgo Sea. If there's time left, we will cruise the East Coast a bit, or visit Gotland. I will need to be back in Denmark by the end of July.

So yes, mostly Swedish waters this summer. Only thing which is still unclear is whether or not I will be allowed back in Denmark by then. If not I will sail back to England I guess, or maybe find a place in Germany to overwinter.

As for other Baltic cruisers -- unless something changes soon with the borders, I think most of us will be staying in our home waters. So far only Germany, Sweden and Estonia are for sure open to foreign cruisers. Danish sailors have the best situation as they are allowed in all the neighboring countries including Norway. Finnish sailors can go to Estonia as they love to do, or Sweden, so they don't have it too bad either.

We already have white nights and summer weather here in Helsinki; can't wait to at last be out on the water and leave this quarantine nightmare behind, these strange and horrible months.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by tp12

And as of today they're now 7th in the world for deaths per million and closing on Italy in 6th. After previously admitting he underestimated the death toll it's good to see him saying this. Hopefully he'll come to the understanding that he didn't need today's knowledge, he just needed to understand what he didn't know and not make assumptions.

It was impossible everywhere to make policy without making assumptions. No one had any choice but to make assumptions, and most assumptions were wrong, everywhere.

In Norway, the health chief admits to having made wrong assumptions about the speed of spread of the disease, and declares lockdown in Norway a mistake:

https://www.thelocal.no/20200522/nor...n-health-chief

Interesting, will the authorities in Australia be as honest as the Norwegians? The mistakes were much more serious there; the Norwegians had a very mild "lockdown" with no stay at home orders. What was done in Australia was immensely destructive.


We can agree on one thing -- it is key to know what you don't know. What we don't know now is how this all turns out, and we won't know for another year or more. Neither the course of the epidemic, nor the economic and other consequences of what different countries did in an attempt to control the epidemic.

[Wotname]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

............

Interesting, will the authorities in Australia be as honest as the Norwegians? The mistakes were much more serious there; the Norwegians had a very mild "lockdown" with no stay at home orders. What was done in Australia was immensely destructive.
...........

I'm curious - what were the mistakes (so far) in Australia and against what criteria are you making the judgement immensely destructive?

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I'm curious - what were the mistakes (so far) in Australia and against what criteria are you making the judgement immensely destructive?

Must be our 124th position in deaths/million of 4

I think we know where immensely destructive comes from...

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Wotname

I'm curious - what were the mistakes (so far) in Australia and against what criteria are you making the judgement immensely destructive?

I am only speculating because, as I said, no one knows how this is going to turn out.

Australia opted for maximum lockdown which causes the greatest disruption of economic and social life.

The policy was based on the Imperial College projections on infectiousness which turned out to be grossly wrong.

So the targets of reducing infection were greatly over-achieved, like almost everywhere.

So whatever the calculation was as to how much disruption and economic damage was worth how many lives, was wrong.

Whether that means the policy was wrong or not -- we don't know yet.

But as a hint -- in Norway, they are already declaring the "lockdown" there was a mistake, as the disease turned out to be much less infectious than they assumed. Note that the "lockdown" in Norway was much milder than in Australia so much less destructive.

If tomorrow a vaccine is discovered and next month is widely distributed, then the Australian policy will look like genius. That's because then life can go completely back to normal, and the one-time lockdown stopped the epidemic completely.

If on the other hand, this drags on for two more years and the Australian economy is destroyed, and there will be no possibility to do another lockdown when the second wave hits in the autumn, so that the number of infections and deaths catches up with the rest of the world (as Giesecke predicted), then the policy will look like it was disastrously wrong.

We don't know. All these policies are based on guesses about a ton of things we don't and can't know at this stage.

That is why it is idiotic to rag on one country's or another's policies at this point in time.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by tp12

Must be our 124th position in deaths/million of 4

I think we know where immensely destructive comes from...

You will need to wait and see the economic results. One more time: this is not a football game, and we are only at the beginning of this. Way too early to tally up scores.


Unemployment in Australia has already hit 15%, and we are only in the third month of this thing, which may go on for a couple more years. You end up with 15% or 20% long term unemployed, and you're going to have hunger. People die not only from infection, but from lack of food, lack of health care, from the breakdown of civilization which occurs if economies break down.

[Dockhead]

One other extremely important factor:


There is no such thing as "lockdown" as a unitary concept. There is a menu of different measures which can be employed in different combinations. Different countries are using different combinations. In the Nordic countries, only very light measures are being used, nowhere here has there ever been a stay at home order or mass closing of businesses.


We are only just starting to understand which measures are effective and which are not. It is now widely agreed that closing schools is almost useless -- so was a mistake wherever this was done. In Denmark, scientists are saying now that the one measure which seems to be really effective is banning mass gatherings, and that all the other ones have questionable value. They are also saying that the TIMING of the measures is the key thing, not which measures -- there is no correlation between the "hardness" of the measures and the results.



I don't think we know any of this for sure yet, but if it is proven that this is true, then all the "hard lockdowns" were a mistake, causing needless economic damage.


It is highly possible, and I have a feeling that it is really so, that the world grossly overreacted to this and inflicted economic meltdown for no purpose. That the epidemic could have been controlled with very fast action using mild measures.


But I am speculating -- no one knows this yet. We shall see in a year's time.