Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Montanan]

Sweden has passed a law on Friday that will allow the government to close restaurants, shops, and public transport to combat the spread of COVID-19.

The new legislation signals a major shift away from the country's initial no-lockdown approach to the pandemic. It also introduces fines for people who break social distancing rules.

Upper secondary schools will also be closed until at least January 24

It was passed, the day after Sweden suffered its highest ever daily death toll from the pandemic, with 277 deaths on Thursday. Sweden had recorded a total of 9,433 COVID-19 deaths by Friday, compared to less than 600 in Finland and less than 500 in Norway, both of which have populations around half the size of Sweden's. More than 2,000 of the deaths reported in Sweden have come in the last month alone.

[Exile]

And on the other side of the pond, the Gov of NY just announced a rather surprising policy reversal, indicating that lockdowns/restrictions should be lifted despite increases in daily infection rates that now well exceed what they saw back in March/April. With soaring state deficits and businesses reeling, Gov. Cuomo cited concerns over the continued well-being of citizens in the midst of a failing economy.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, you could model it to see what makes the most sense.


Even if you count lives only by absolute lives, it is not clear that vaccinating vulnerable people directly will save more lives than vaccinating spreaders. If every large scale spreader infects dozens of people, then one vaccination into such a person might save more lives than one vaccination into one vulnerable person. Even more when you consider the dynamic effects -- one spreader infects x number of people who infect further y number of people in turn infect z number of people -- STOPPING THE PANDEMIC is the ultimate goal, and we will save a ton of lives if we can do that faster. Whether it's more lives than would be saved by going directly to the most vulnerable is not obvious. It's really a math question, depending on the structure of spreading and the R0 or whatever of the virus. I don't know the answer, but equally I think I can say that the answer is not obvious.





If the vaccine prevents transmission of the virus, which I think the experts think is likely, then this is not a good approach -- we want to get as many people as possible vaccinated so that the population reaches herd immunity. Society is not indifferent to people spreading the virus around, just because they don't get very sick themselves.

I hear you about the absolute lives and agree, but that is not always a very popular way of thinking in today's society, when there are old and infirm involved. Also as we now know a lot more about the virus and those who are at risk from all age groups, it is a lot easier to target those people than worry about groups who we know are not at risk. With any virus like the flu or measles there will be those with unexpected side effects, but with proper management this should be negligible.



I always thought the aim was to flatten the curve to remove the pressure from the health system, which in turn allows all the procedures and treatments to again start happening which in itself will save many lives.


I really do not understand this obsession with eradication, as it simply will not happen, however many people you vaccinate - Are you going to vaccinate 7.6 billion people every year, year after year? As you reach herd immunity the virus will mutate and find a way to infect, which is what they do or the Vaccination effectiveness will wear off.


We need to get to a stage down the line where we treat it like the flu, vaccinate the at risk groups (like the Flu every year) and not worry about everyone else who is not at risk.


Flu vaccination rates range from under 10% to over 75% for those at risk depending on the country - on average the EU is over 44% and the States are 69%. This is an awful lot of vaccinations but a long way from perfect and in a Bad year 650,000 will die from the flu, So imagine if we had full vaccination rates for Covid for those at risk, I'm pretty certain that the annual death rate would be substantially less than a bad flu year. The other thing that will occur over time is that for those that are not seriously effected by the virus, there will be a natural herd immunity built up which will adapt over time to the mutations, as people will catch them and have natural immunity to the new strain. The overall effect is the reduction in fatalities.


If we go down the path of eradication, the world is never going to be the same again and borders may open up but with major caveats - Why try to achieve the impossible?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by UFO

. . . I really do not understand this obsession with eradication, as it simply will not happen, however many people you vaccinate - Are you going to vaccinate 7.6 billion people every year, year after year? As you reach herd immunity the virus will mutate and find a way to infect, which is what they do or the Vaccination effectiveness will wear off.. . .

If we go down the path of eradication, the world is never going to be the same again and borders may open up but with major caveats - Why try to achieve the impossible?

I'm not sure what you're referring to, but for the record, very few countries have even attempted eradication -- Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, China maybe. All other countries are merely trying to keep infections and deaths down to a manageable level until we can vaccinate enough people to get herd immunity. They are doing it with different cocktails of measures and with varying degrees of success.

I don't see the future like you do -- once this is under control, life will return to something like normal. WHO is saying it won't be this year. But I guess once a significant part of the population is vaccinated, even far short of herd immunity, there will be a completely different dynamic and no need for any really burdensome restrictions.

Sure, it will mutate, but we will have new vaccines. We get a new flu vaccine every year; this shouldn't be any different. This one was a one in a hundred year new virus; will there be another one this bad, already next year? I doubt it. Life went back to normal after the last really bad pandemic in 1918.

We will at the same time be learning about how to manage this with less and less interference with normal life.

So in my opinion things are going to get dramatically better by this coming summer. The pandemic won't be completely over and there will still be some measures but it will be nothing like last year.

Now let's just hope that we don't have economic collapse. It will be cold comfort for the pandemic to be easing up if the global economy melts down. We're in really unknown territory now where that's concerned. We may live to regret that we weren't more careful with the economy.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I'm not sure what you're referring to, but for the record, very few countries have even attempted eradication -- Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, China maybe. All other countries are merely trying to keep infections and deaths down to a manageable level until we can vaccinate enough people to get herd immunity. They are doing it with different cocktails of measures and with varying degrees of success.

I don't see the future like you do -- once this is under control, life will return to something like normal. WHO is saying it won't be this year. But I guess once a significant part of the population is vaccinated, even far short of herd immunity, there will be a completely different dynamic and no need for any really burdensome restrictions.

Sure, it will mutate, but we will have new vaccines. We get a new flu vaccine every year; this shouldn't be any different. This one was a one in a hundred year new virus; will there be another one this bad, already next year? I doubt it. Life went back to normal after the last really bad pandemic in 1918.

We will at the same time be learning about how to manage this with less and less interference with normal life.

So in my opinion things are going to get dramatically better by this coming summer. The pandemic won't be completely over and there will still be some measures but it will be nothing like last year.

Now let's just hope that we don't have economic collapse. It will be cold comfort for the pandemic to be easing up if the global economy melts down. We're in really unknown territory now where that's concerned. We may live to regret that we weren't more careful with the economy.

My point about eradication is that people seem to be under the assumption that the vaccine will eradicate it, which is not the case, hence me saying once we get it under initial control through the vaccines, in following years we should treat it like they do the flu and vaccinate those that are at risk and let the others who are not at risk simply catch it like the flu. Otherwise you are vaccinating 7 Billion people every year (pretty impractical and very expensive) and the fear will remain.



We need to have some acceptance that we will have to live with this virus for years and probably decades to come and that people will catch it and people will die, but not in uncontrollable amounts - Like the Flu it is managed each year. If we do not accept this then the borders are always going to have some restriction on them even for the vaccinated as every time a new strain comes out that dodges the vaccine you will need to be vaccinated for it or else you won't be allowed in without quarantine etc and this is also going to continue damaging economies.

[goboatingnow]

I now think 2021 will be a write off. The expectations here are that the population won’t be completely vaccinated until late 2021. This means we see travel restrictions and so forth continue all through this year.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

I now think 2021 will be a write off. The expectations here are that the population won’t be completely vaccinated until late 2021. This means we see travel restrictions and so forth continue all through this year.

I am very optimistic about 2021.
By the time summer arrives in the Northern hemisphere, almost all the vulnerable will have been vaccinated (at least in developed countries). I think deaths will plummet by March/April and for the rest of the year actually be less than average for the countries that have been harder hit, as extra elderly have already died this past year.

I expect countries will require proof of a negative test before entry (or on entry), but that is a fairly minor stumbling block. I am guessing proof of vaccination won’t be needed until most people have access to the vaccine. It is not known how many countries or airlines will demand this anyway.

After a bad start to the year, I think we will have a good summer. After all the restrictions and doom and gloom I think summer will taste especially sweet.

[UFO]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I am very optimistic about 2021.
By the time summer arrives in the Northern hemisphere, almost all the vulnerable will have been vaccinated (at least in developed countries). I think deaths will plummet by March/April and for the rest of the year actually be less than average for the countries that have been harder hit, as extra elderly have already died this past year.

I expect countries will require proof of a negative test before entry (or on entry), but that is a fairly minor stumbling block. I am guessing proof of vaccination won’t be needed until most people have access to the vaccine. It is not known how many countries or airlines will demand this anyway.

After a bad start to the year, I think we will have a good summer. After all the restrictions and doom and gloom I think summer will taste especially sweet.

I'll raise a glass to that. I am looking to head off by May when the cyclone season up north finishes, so I am hoping that Indonesia, Malaysia & Thailand are open by then, otherwise its back to the East Coast of Oz.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I am very optimistic about 2021...
... After a bad start to the year, I think we will have a good summer. After all the restrictions and doom and gloom I think summer will taste especially sweet.

Originally Posted by UFO

I'll raise a glass to that. I am looking to head off by May when the cyclone season up north finishes, so I am hoping that Indonesia, Malaysia & Thailand are open by then, otherwise its back to the East Coast of Oz.

Where are you, both, now?

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by UFO

I'll raise a glass to that. I am looking to head off by May when the cyclone season up north finishes, so I am hoping that Indonesia, Malaysia & Thailand are open by then, otherwise its back to the East Coast of Oz.

That is not a shabby alternative .

We headed up to the Whitsundays every June for many years. The cruising guide “100 Magic Miles” could not have been more aptly named.

[Pete7]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

A short-term reduction in death statistics achieved by vaccinating nursing home residents will make a minimal direct contribution towards the overall aim, and an even more minimal contribution to saving life-years.

There may be a political aspect to this in the UK as the Gov was heavily criticised during the first lock down for not doing enough for care homes, particularly providing PPE. The fact that there wasn't enough anyway is a minor point.

Also those in care or even sheltered accm are generally elderly and therefore more likely to have complications that put them in hospital, as apposed to those who can rough it out at home. They then soak up huge amounts of resources which can only come from other hospital areas, so routine operations are cancelled. No staff to operate or look after patients afterwards.

There has been some criticism that hospital beds and wards are empty and therefore what is this Covid problem? The truth is that hospital beds are a very crude way of measuring the workload. Yes there are general wards empty, because all the nurses are in critical care wards which requires far greater numbers of staff around the clock. The only place they can come from is to close general wards, hence empty beds.

Can we inoculate 1 million people a week so the whole of the UK is done by Xmas? probably. Can we do it again next year on an annual basis? Wow that's a tough one.

Pete

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Where are you, both, now?

North west Scotland, Gord. At anchor. Last time we tied up anywhere was over 18 months ago.

[Sos]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

North west Scotland, Gord. At anchor. Last time we tied up anywhere was over 18 months ago.

You must have seen you fair share of storms so far !!


We are hoping to sail up that way later this year if restrictions allow.
Would like to see the West coast of Ireland but once again not sure on how that is going to pan out.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Sos

You must have seen you fair share of storms so far !!

We are hoping to sail up that way later this year if restrictions allow.
Would like to see the West coast of Ireland but once again not sure on how that is going to pan out.

We saw 81 knots with Storm Aiden!

I would love to see the west coast of Scotland too. As a private foreign yacht we were refused entry this summer.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I am very optimistic about 2021.
By the time summer arrives in the Northern hemisphere, almost all the vulnerable will have been vaccinated (at least in developed countries). I think deaths will plummet by March/April and for the rest of the year actually be less than average for the countries that have been harder hit, as extra elderly have already died this past year.

I expect countries will require proof of a negative test before entry (or on entry), but that is a fairly minor stumbling block. I am guessing proof of vaccination won’t be needed until most people have access to the vaccine. It is not known how many countries or airlines will demand this anyway.

After a bad start to the year, I think we will have a good summer. After all the restrictions and doom and gloom I think summer will taste especially sweet.

You beat me to it. Pretty much exactly my view.

I think summer must be great this year -- it wasn't bad even in 2020, remember? By the time we get to summer 2021, we will have a ton more community immunity from natural immunity plus vaccinations, so the natural summer downturn should be much more pronounced. Don't you think?

By autumn 2021, when we would otherwise be expecting a new wave, surely by then we will have vaccinated enough people to at least make exponential growth impossible, even if are not yet at full herd immunity.

So I reckon that by late spring, no more hard measures will be necessary, and from then until herd immunity we will just have various combinations of the non-destructive, sustainable Nordic type measures.

Within Europe, travel should be no problem by summer, I guess. No one wants border restrictions; it's bad for everything. By summer 2021, I guess focus will shift to getting economies working and so there will be a strong aversion to hard measures, nor will they be necessary anymore.

I guess there will some kind of vaccination passport or immunity passport. Up here where the quarantines are almost all voluntary, the passport or even the fact of vaccination on your honor, will free you from them. What concerns borders, I expect things to get back to what they were in summer-early autumn with internal borders basically open, with a requirement here and there to test or voluntarily self-isolate.

That's what my crystal ball tells me. Of course, we shall see. I think a few months more of pain and then things should start to look up.

Remember also that even without measures or vaccination, pandemics pass. Spanish flu without vaccination was gone in a couple of years. Viruses don't typically mutate in a way which makes them more deadly; that makes them spread less. I think with our suppression measures we may have delayed any natural end, but we should have a lot of people vaccinated by summer.

I think when death rates crash it will likewise be a big moral boost to the population, and this is really important. The fear is really harmful in all kinds of ways, including public health, including the economy. The moral boost will help life get back to normal, and get the economy working too.


Here's to that sweet summer ahead!