Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[nextis12]

Originally Posted by Hermia II

No! Scientists do not agree. IPCC is following an agenda based on Climate Change through CO2 emissions. Nobody has proven that CO2 increases the temperature on earth. The "proof" is the "Climate Models" which can prove anything depending on what parameters you put into them. Values of CO2 in the atmosphere is often measured in Hawaii where the meteorological station is close to a leaking volcano.

Predictions of rising sea levels determined that the Maldives would be below the sea surface years ago. I have checked myself, the shoreline is still in its' old place. The coral reefs in Australia are absolutely fine.

The whole "Climate Change" agenda is a political tool with a multi facetted purpose. Do not buy it.

Awesome! you checked it out and it’s all good. We can keep burning coal, oil whatever else we can find, no worries. It’s not like massive amounts of pollution/CO2 can have any consequences - right? Why would we trust scientist when you so cleverly pointed out the shoreline is still in its old place. Turns out it’s all just a few sensors next to a “leaking” volcano.

You convinced me, we should continue with this massive uncontrolled experiment and if the scientist are right we could be really screwed, but that is far better than a solution that would result in cleaner air, jobs and new technological break throughs.

[LargeMarge]

Originally Posted by Gaia

.
.
[edited for brevity]
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...change is obviously now proven to be real...
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[snip]
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.
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Good!
We can obviously now put-to-bed that whole 'attempting to predict the weather but failing exactly half the time' business.
Accordingly, I think it's high-time we work on obviously now proving gravity and magnetism to be 'real'.

Show of hands... who is with me!
[key the 'Germans bombed Pearl Harbor' rally parade]

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Exile

... "Recent research [Univ. of Plymouth in the UK] shows that low-lying coral islands rise naturally along with sea levels, as waves push sediment onto the land;
Sea walls that enclose islands may be doing more harm than good, by compromising their ability to adjust to rising sea levels."
https://www.scmp.com/lifestyle/trave...ing-sea-levels (citing Reuters)

Thanks for alerting us to news of that study.


“Island ‘drowning’ is not inevitable as sea levels rise” ~ University of Plymouth
An international study [1] led by the University suggests coral reef islands across the world could naturally adapt to survive rising sea levels.
The results show that islands composed of gravel material can evolve in the face of overtopping waves, with sediment from the beach face being transferred to the island’s surface.
This means the island’s crest is being raised as sea level rises, with scientists saying such natural adaptation may provide an alternative future that can potentially support near-term habitability, albeit with additional management challenges, possibly involving sediment nourishment, mobile infrastructure and flood-proof housing.
More about ➥ https://www.plymouth.ac.uk/news/isla...ea-levels-rise


The actual study:
[1] “Coral reef islands can accrete vertically in response to sea level rise” ~ by Gerd Masselink, Eddie Beetham, and Paul Kench
➥ https://advances.sciencemag.org/cont.../eaay3656.full

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Thanks for alerting us to news of that study.


“Island ‘drowning’ is not inevitable as sea levels rise” ~ University of Plymouth
An international study [1] led by the University suggests coral reef islands across the world could naturally adapt to survive rising sea levels.
The results show that islands composed of gravel material can evolve in the face of overtopping waves, with sediment from the beach face being transferred to the island’s surface.
This means the island’s crest is being raised as sea level rises, with scientists saying such natural adaptation may provide an alternative future that can potentially support near-term habitability, albeit with additional management challenges, possibly involving sediment nourishment, mobile infrastructure and flood-proof housing.
More about ➥ https://www.plymouth.ac.uk/news/isla...ea-levels-rise


The actual study:
[1] “Coral reef islands can accrete vertically in response to sea level rise” ~ by Gerd Masselink, Eddie Beetham, and Paul Kench
➥ https://advances.sciencemag.org/cont.../eaay3656.full

This is a real stretch of the imagination. I've spent the last 2 months sailing the Maldives. There is no way these islands are adding landmass. With one big exception and that is the large scale and very small scale filling of sand bags from uninhibited islands and transporting them to inhabited islands. You see this all over atolls. Small, outboard boats moving 10 bags at a time, along with big diggers creating new land.
The Maldives are a petri dish for sea temperature rise as well as sea level rise effects. Coral bleaching from increased seawater temperature has killed the majority of the reefs. Really sad.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Paul L

This is a real stretch of the imagination. I've spent the last 2 months sailing the Maldives. There is no way these islands are adding landmass ...

I think a careful study of the actual paper might be in order [I've only read the paper quickly], but it doesn't seem to [quite] say what the headlines might imply.


Excerpted from the paper’s Abstract:
“... Our results indicate that such natural adaptation of reef islands may provide an alternative future trajectory that can potentially support near-term habitability on some islands, albeit with additional management challenges. Full characterization of SLR vulnerability at a given reef island should combine morphodynamic models with assessments of climate-related impacts on freshwater supplies, carbonate sediment supply, and future wave regimes.”

Excerpted from the paper’s Discussion:
“... The morphological modeling approach adopted here considers coral reef island response to climate change only as a result of rising sea level. However, increased ocean water temperature is expected to increase the intensity of tropical storms, resulting in enhanced coastal flooding (31), thereby accelerating the rollover process identified in this study, and also has substantial adverse effects on the health of coral reef systems that may modify carbonate sediment production regimes that contribute to island building and maintenance (32). In addition, island habitability is not only a function of island freeboard it also depends on the island planform area, which, without sediment input from the reef structure, may reduce as a result of rollover.
Storlazzi et al.(4) have demonstrated that enhanced coastal flooding due to SLR is expected to lead to increased contamination of the freshwater aquifer, where they occur, a process not accounted for in the present numerical modeling approach. It is also important to emphasize that the reef island modeled here is made of gravel, and because of the reduced mobility and increased hydraulic conductivity of gravel compared with that of sand, it could be argued that gravel islands may be particularly responsive and able to keep up with rising sea level. ...”

[captwylie]

80 percent of scientific theory is eventually disproven. That's why they call it theory. When Joe Biden shut down the Keystone pipeline he increased the amount of carbon pollution associated with the movement of that crude. I am not sure how many barrels of crude per day that line would move but we ran a 24 inch diameter pipeline from Midland, Texas to Houston, Texas a couple of years ago and it is now moving 500,000 barrels per day. A tanker truck moves 180 barrels. Do the math. How much pollution do 7,778 trucks emit driving 500 miles across Texas? Train cars haul a similar amount and trains are polluters as well.
We are still dependent on oil. Why would you want to move it in a manor that produces thousands of times more carbon emission's?
That's why we should have engineers decide how to move a product and environmental scientists should stick to their theory's.

[hpeer]

Nearly 8 billion people releasing millions of years of sequestered carbon changing the atmospheric balance. Humans and our feed animals account for over 50% of Earths animal biomass, not including our crops. Human culture has become the most under used food source ever. We are using fossil water orders of magnitude faster than replenishment rates. And our economy is seeking salvation based on rare solutions to algorithms because they are more “real” than the current fiat currency.

But nothing bad has happened yesterday so shat could go wrong.

[BelizeRumRunner]

I am a scientist, an Oceanographer. Climate change? Of course, it changes all the time. Has for billions of years. Man made? Even a fly exerts a force when it lands. If it lands on you then you notice it. Hurricanes, cyclones how many, how strong? When there are alterior motives and lots of money to chase I tend to agree with Samuel Clemens' observation " There are lies, damn lies, and statistics!" I just hope I dont get sunk by a piece of sky when it falls from the eye of a hurricane.

[BelizeRumRunner]

And the great oceans sucking in that sequestered CO2, combining with shells of fish to form Calcium Carbonate, only to fall to the bottom of the sea and be caught again in the cycle of the great washing machine, earth. CO2 is a good thing. Without it all life on the planet dies. Over fishing, or the industrialization of that activity, is a different story.

[BelizeRumRunner]

Hear, hear!

[BelizeRumRunner]

Originally Posted by Paul L

This is a real stretch of the imagination. I've spent the last 2 months sailing the Maldives. There is no way these islands are adding landmass. With one big exception and that is the large scale and very small scale filling of sand bags from uninhibited islands and transporting them to inhabited islands. You see this all over atolls. Small, outboard boats moving 10 bags at a time, along with big diggers creating new land.
The Maldives are a petri dish for sea temperature rise as well as sea level rise effects. Coral bleaching from increased seawater temperature has killed the majority of the reefs. Really sad.

It is only a theory that temperature correlations with coral depletion. Hard to agree with when there are corals thriving in areas where water temperatures are increasing. Another theory is that nutrients the coral need are becoming more scarce because fish populations are diminishing. Coral loves fish poop. The bottom line is that there are so many interconnected pieces of the great planet puzzle that mere humans can only guess at how they fit together. God put animals, minerals, plants and fish together and gave man the power to rule it all. Seeking his guidance is a good start.

[MHTinkler]

Wrong.

[Montanan]

Sea level rise is killing trees along the Atlantic coast, creating 'ghost forests' that are visible from space.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...?ocid=msedgntp

Throughout coastal North Carolina, evidence of forest die-off is everywhere.


Rising seas are inundating North Carolina’s coast, and saltwater is seeping into wetland soils. Salts move through groundwater during phases when freshwater is depleted, such as during droughts. Saltwater also moves through canals and ditches, penetrating inland with help from wind and high tides. Dead trees with pale trunks, devoid of leaves and limbs, are a telltale sign of high salt levels in the soil.


As the trees die, more salt-tolerant shrubs and grasses move in to take their place

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by BelizeRumRunner

It is only a theory that temperature correlations with coral depletion. Hard to agree with when there are corals thriving in areas where water temperatures are increasing. Another theory is that nutrients the coral need are becoming more scarce because fish populations are diminishing. Coral loves fish poop. The bottom line is that there are so many interconnected pieces of the great planet puzzle that mere humans can only guess at how they fit together. God put animals, minerals, plants and fish together and gave man the power to rule it all. Seeking his guidance is a good start.

Seeing the coral reef die off over hundreds of miles here in the Maldives, smack in the middle of the Indian Ocean, it is really pretty hard to assign its cause to your theory - lack of fish poop. Since the corals died directly after the measured ocean temperature increases in 2015-16, the immediate cause is pretty clear. Now what the cause of the ocean warming was might be more open to wild conjecture.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Seeing the coral reef die off over hundreds of miles here in the Maldives, smack in the middle of the Indian Ocean, it is really pretty hard to assign its cause to your theory - lack of fish poop. Since the corals died directly after the measured ocean temperature increases in 2015-16, the immediate cause is pretty clear. Now what the cause of the ocean warming was might be more open to wild conjecture.

You've described coral bleaching. This has been occurring long before climate change became a thing. More a weather related phenomenon than hard evidence of climate change.