Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

[hpeer]

Gord,

Here is a book you might appreciate.

Sort of a summary of the mental processes that move the deniers.

https://www.amazon.com/Dont-Even-Thi.../dp/163286102X

Though the book is a bit light in all specifics, it is true to the source where I have read deeper.

I am about 2/3 through.

Amazon summary.

Most of us recognize that climate change is real yet we do nothing to stop it. What is the psychological mechanism that allows us to know something is true but act as if it is not? George Marshall’s search for the answers brings him face to face with Nobel Prize-winning psychologists and Texas Tea Party activists; the world’s leading climate scientists and those who denounce them; liberal environmentalists and conservative evangelicals. What he discovers is that our values, assumptions, and prejudices can take on lives of their own, gaining authority as they are shared, dividing people in their wake.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by donradcliffe

That's funny, I was in the Maldives in 2004, and the reef was dead then. They said it was due to bleaching. Must have been a miraculous recovery.

Not sure I see the humor. There was another sea temp heat wave in 1998 that also killed off the reefs. But my understanding is that it was not near as bad as this last one. 90%+ of the coral in the reefs are dead. It is pretty astounding. We've seen lots of places that had dead sections of reef and talk of bleaching across the Carib, Pacific, Australia and Indo islands, but we could always look the other way and head off to colorful, healthy reef near by. Not so here, it is major destruction.

If this was simply a weather event, then I would have expected the corals to have adapted over the decades.

Interesting paper on the Indian Ocean coral bleaching here
https://link.springer.com/article/10...38-019-01821-9

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by OldManMirage

Not wanting to start a fight but...lol...remember that the leading scientists of the day back then also didn't think that manned flight would ever be viable...

According to the Smithsonian Institution, and Fédération Aéronautique Internationale, the Wrights made the first sustained, controlled, powered heavier-than-air manned flight at Kill Devil Hills, North Carolina, four miles (8 km) south of Kitty Hawk, North Carolina, on December 17, 1903.


It is useful to remember, however, that even leading up to the Wright Brothers' triumph, the idea of powered flight was viewed by many experts* of the day as an impossible aspiration.

*Eg:

"Is it not demonstrated that a true flying machine, self-raising, self-sustaining, self-propelling, is physically impossible?" ~ Joseph LeConte, November 1888

"It is apparent to me that the possibilities of the aeroplane, which two or three years ago were thought to hold the solution to the [flying machine] problem, have been exhausted, and that we must turn elsewhere." ~ Thomas Edison, November 1895

"I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible." ~ Lord Kelvin, 1895
"I have not the smallest molecule of faith in aerial navigation other than ballooning, or of the expectation of good results from any of the trials we heard of. So you will understand that I would not care to be a member of the Aeronautical Society." ~ Lord Kelvin, 1896

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

In Breaking News

Boat insurance companies have revised their coverage areas due to the hurricane forecast science. From now on boats are required to be north of Long Island USA and south of Rio de Janeiro Brazil during the hurricane season of May 1 and April 29

SailorBoy



Thank you for the guidance. Well at least northwest Montana appears to remain in qualifying hurricane safe zone for coverage. That is a relief to know. The four seasons in Montana being June, July, August and Winter. Received some fresh snow on the mountains outside of town last night, but the lawns are greening in the valley. Time to start up the mower for the first cutting of the season today or tomorrow.

The surface temperature of the water is warming which means hurricane season must be approaching, it is a pleasant 41 degrees Fahrenheit this morning.

[wolfgal]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

In Breaking News

Boat insurance companies have revised their coverage areas due to the hurricane forecast science. From now on boats are required to be north of Long Island USA and south of Rio de Janeiro Brazil during the hurricane season of May 1 and April 29

there is an interview out there with warren Buffet in which he responds to how worried he gets about potentially being on the losing end with the insurance companies he owns and the increasingly expensive disasters (hurricanes and such).

he responded that HIS experts researched and gave him their assessment, after which he could easily chose to rewrite policies from one year to the next.

[Lateral Hazard]

Not abstract at all. Climate scientists using current weather trends over a long time is climate change. Increase of substantial rains in some locations and increased drought over others for years is indicative of a changing climate model.
There may be years where it does not happen but OVER TIME if it happens it is climate change

Originally Posted by Exile

Very true in the abstract, but how many times do we see short-term weather events or natural disasters being cited as evidence of long-term climate change? Or the opposite, i.e. relatively benign periods dismissed as evidence of long-term CC, and instead attributed to short-term weather? Most of this is not the fault of mainstream scientists, but rather partisans who are distorting the science for their own preferred political goals, or media outlets who stand to gain from spouting unsupported alarmism.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lateral Hazard

Not abstract at all. Climate scientists using current weather trends over a long time is climate change. Increase of substantial rains in some locations and increased drought over others for years is indicative of a changing climate model.
There may be years where it does not happen but OVER TIME if it happens it is climate change

Over WHAT period of time?

[Lateral Hazard]

Originally Posted by Exile

Over WHAT period of time?

Roughly 30 years

On a side note, Google is your friend, just type and find.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Lateral Hazard

Roughly 30 years
On a side note, Google is your friend, just type and find.

Indeed.
According to NOAA:
Scientists traditionally define a Climate Normal as an average over a recent 30-year period.
Close to a century ago, the International Meteorological Organization, now known as the World Metrological Organization, instructed member nations to calculate Climate Normals using 30-year periods, beginning with 1901–1930. Also, a general rule in statistics says that you need at least 30 numbers to get a reliable estimate of their mean or average.
So, scientists have traditionally defined Normals as averages over 30 years simply because that is the accepted convention - not because a 30-year average is the only logical or “right” way to define a Climate Normal.

[Copacabana]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

In Breaking News

Boat insurance companies have revised their coverage areas due to the hurricane forecast science. From now on boats are required to be north of Long Island USA and south of Rio de Janeiro Brazil during the hurricane season of May 1 and April 29

Rio lies on the tropic of Capricorn. There are no hurricanes on the coast of Brazil, either north or south of Rio. South of Rio there are some pretty violent winter storms that come up from Argentina (cold fronts), but no hurricanes. Perhaps they mean south of the tropic of Capricorn on other continents.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lateral Hazard

Roughly 30 years

On a side note, Google is your friend, just type and find.

Originally Posted by GordMay

Indeed.
According to NOAA:
Scientists traditionally define a Climate Normal as an average over a recent 30-year period.
Close to a century ago, the International Meteorological Organization, now known as the World Metrological Organization, instructed member nations to calculate Climate Normals using 30-year periods, beginning with 1901–1930. Also, a general rule in statistics says that you need at least 30 numbers to get a reliable estimate of their mean or average.
So, scientists have traditionally defined Normals as averages over 30 years simply because that is the accepted convention - not because a 30-year average is the only logical or “right” way to define a Climate Normal.

The bolded part is exactly my understanding as well, and is a concise and appropriate way of explaining it. The use of the 30-year average for statistical purposes is universally accepted even by climate scientists who are otherwise well-known skeptics. It's use as a baseline average for comparison to recent weather events and/or current trends is controversial, with many critics claiming 30 years is not nearly a long enough time span to make such comparisons. It is nevertheless frequently used by non-scientist lay people to bolster their case that CC is to blame. Maybe it is or maybe it isn't, but Google is not your friend if it only leads to secondary sources of information produced by people with the same predispositions and biases as you have.

[Montanan]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

In Breaking News

Boat insurance companies have revised their coverage areas due to the hurricane forecast science. From now on boats are required to be north of Long Island USA and south of Rio de Janeiro Brazil during the hurricane season of May 1 and April 29

Originally Posted by Copacabana

Rio lies on the tropic of Capricorn. There are no hurricanes on the coast of Brazil, either north or south of Rio. South of Rio there are some pretty violent winter storms that come up from Argentina (cold fronts), but no hurricanes. Perhaps they mean south of the tropic of Capricorn on other continents.

Copacabana:

SailorBoy was pranking us and did a great job of it. I was very much amused, after first saying to myself, WTF!. Note especially the hurricane period being all but two days of the year; that be the give away.

An excellent example of Poe's Law.

I think the insurance companies may expand the hurricane zone to range from south of the north pole and north of the south pole.

All the best.

[Lateral Hazard]

Originally Posted by Exile

The bolded part is exactly my understanding as well, and is a concise and appropriate way of explaining it. The use of the 30-year average for statistical purposes is universally accepted even by climate scientists who are otherwise well-known skeptics. It's use as a baseline average for comparison to recent weather events and/or current trends is controversial, with many critics claiming 30 years is not nearly a long enough time span to make such comparisons. It is nevertheless frequently used by non-scientist lay people to bolster their case that CC is to blame. Maybe it is or maybe it isn't, but Google is not your friend if it only leads to secondary sources of information produced by people with the same predispositions and biases as you have.

I have always believed the experts.
I do not argue with my surgeons if 3 of them say I need an operation and my next door neighbor, (who is not a Surgeon nor a medical Dr), tells me I do not need one. In life and death decisions I listen to the experts.
Funny, but it always seems to work out.

[Montanan]

Scientific American Magazine:

We Are Living in a Climate Emergency, and We’re Going to Say So
It’s time to use a term that more than 13,000 scientists agree is needed

By Mark Fischetti on April 12, 2021

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...e8872-45326354

"Given the circumstances, Scientific American has agreed with major news outlets worldwide to start using the term “climate emergency” in its coverage of climate change. An official statement about this decision, and the impact we hope it can have throughout the media landscape, is below."
. . .

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Lateral Hazard

I have always believed the experts.
I do not argue with my surgeons if 3 of them say I need an operation and my next door neighbor, (who is not a Surgeon nor a medical Dr), tells me I do not need one. In life and death decisions I listen to the experts.
Funny, but it always seems to work out.

So do I, but in your example if my next door neighbor is also a qualified surgeon who questions whether an operation is necessary, then I would at the very least look into it further. Like many, it sounds like you may be assuming that the strong scientific consensus over the mere existence of CC carries over into the much less certain causal connection between CC and recent weather/environmental events. Not unlike the remedies many people like to propose for mitigating claimed (but not necessarily credible) CC impacts, there are risks involved with having surgeries which may turn out to be unnecessary and cause more harm than good.