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Old 30-03-2021, 04:47   #1
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Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track


Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones
https://news.sciencebrief.org/press-...ical-cyclones/

A new report [1], in the ScienceBrief Review website, published last week, now suggests that many regions affected by hurricanes will likely experience storms of greater intensity, as a result of Earth's changing climate. Maximum wind speeds in hurricanes could rise five per cent, if the planet warms by 2 C by 2100, the review of more than 90 peer-reviewed studies found.
The report [1] said the intensity of hurricanes will "probably" increase as a result of climate change, but it is hard to be certain due to several factors, including a lack of historical data. Since 1979, hurricanes of Category 3 or higher have increased by roughly five per cent, but it's difficult to say how much of a role climate change has played in this.
The report, which analyzed peer-reviewed literature, was published as part of a series on climate change issues ahead of the United Nations' COP26 climate conference scheduled for Nov. 1–2 in Glasgow. [2]

[1] “Climate change is probably increasing the intensity of tropical cyclones” ~ by Thomas R. Knutson et al
https://sciencebrief.org/topics/clim...ience/cyclones
https://sciencebrief.org/uploads/rev...ES_Mar2021.pdf

[2] COP26https://ukcop26.org/

Tropical Cyclone “Maximum Intensity” is Shifting Toward Poles
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/tropi...g-toward-poles

Over the past 30 years, the location where tropical cyclones reach maximum intensity has been shifting toward the poles in both the northern and southern hemispheres at a rate of about 35 miles, or one-half a degree of latitude, per decade according to a study [3], published in Nature.

[3] “The Poleward Migration of the Location of Tropical Cyclone Maximum Intensity” ~ by James P. Kossin et al
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature13278
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Old 30-03-2021, 05:21   #2
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

Probably a valid opinion based on incomplete data and author bias.
Do you have any papers by Miss Henny Penny?

http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/histor...User_Guide.pdf

Here's a link to historical data in an interactive app.
Do your own research and draw your own conclusions.
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Old 30-03-2021, 05:37   #3
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

Not ‘by’, but ‘about’, Foxy-Woxy:
https://www.sacred-texts.com/neu/eng/eft/eft21.htm

Henny-Penny is a fairy tail, with a moral: trying to incite panic can result in opportunists like Foxy-woxy doing real harm.
The iconic story was published in English Fairy Tales*.
https://books.google.ca/books?id=a-I...page&q&f=false
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Old 30-03-2021, 05:49   #4
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

Quote:
Originally Posted by GordMay View Post
Not ‘by’, but ‘about’, Foxy-Woxy:
https://www.sacred-texts.com/neu/eng/eft/eft21.htm

Henny-Penny is a fairy tail, with a moral: trying to incite panic can result in opportunists like Foxy-woxy doing real harm.
The iconic story was published in English Fairy Tales*.
https://books.google.ca/books?id=a-I...page&q&f=false
That was entirely my point
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Old 30-03-2021, 05:58   #5
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

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Originally Posted by Rucksta View Post
That was entirely my point
And mine was that you may be the opportunist, like Foxy-woxy, doing real harm.
Truce?
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Old 30-03-2021, 06:22   #6
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

I'm not a scientist, but I do live in a cyclone area and have for many years. My observations suggest that the intensity of cyclones is increasing at a rate proportional to the increase in technology that is used to monitor them. I'd say the "level playing field" measure of the seasonal number of cyclones - which has decreased - should also be considered which for some reason is often glossed over.

Weird, aye?
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Old 30-03-2021, 06:46   #7
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

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Originally Posted by GordMay View Post
Truce?
A truce would involve you desisting from proselytising your new religion.
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Old 30-03-2021, 08:15   #8
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rucksta View Post
A truce would involve you desisting from proselytising your new religion.
"... Maximum wind speeds in hurricanes could rise five per cent, if the planet warms by 2 C by 2100, the review of more than 90 peer-reviewed studies found.
The report [1] said the intensity of hurricanes will "probably" increase as a result of climate change, but it is hard to be certain due to several factors, including a lack of historical data. Since 1979, hurricanes of Category 3 or higher have increased by roughly five per cent, but it's difficult to say how much of a role climate change has played in this..."

Hardly a religious fervor, and certainty.
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Old 30-03-2021, 10:00   #9
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

Wonder why some non-scientists can always be found to question or criticize the collective work of qualified scientists well beyond their capacity to do so? Is it perhaps because of a reluctance to accept the validity of the warnings? An ostrich like approach?

Human caused climate change is obviously now proven to be real. Its effects on us living on the water will be the least of societie's worries. The very least we can do is vote for those taking the threat seriously enough to act.

Thanks for posting Gord.

Jim sv Gaia
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Old 30-03-2021, 10:12   #10
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

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Originally Posted by Gaia View Post
Wonder why some non-scientists can always be found to question or criticize the collective work of qualified scientists well beyond their capacity to do so? Is it perhaps because of a reluctance to accept the validity of the warnings? An ostrich like approach?

Human caused climate change is obviously now proven to be real. Its effects on us living on the water will be the least of societie's worries. The very least we can do is vote for those taking the threat seriously enough to act.

Thanks for posting Gord.

Jim sv Gaia

People seem to trust science that works for them. They will get on a plane without questioning the science but refuse to believe it if it isn't something they don't want to hear. The bias regarding science is usually in the person receiving the results and not the scientists.
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Old 30-03-2021, 11:31   #11
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

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Originally Posted by nortonscove View Post
People seem to trust science that works for them. They will get on a plane without questioning the science but refuse to believe it if it isn't something they don't want to hear. The bias regarding science is usually in the person receiving the results and not the scientists.

Getting on a plane is trust in technology.
Where science was involved it was researched and tested by Engineers and test pilots.

The paper that was quoted uses terms such as probably, hard to be certain & lack of historical data.

It also proposes a theory that this uncertain, incomplete and untested data regarding cyclone frequency & intensity may be related to climate change.

This is a line of enquiry that needs further research to prove or disprove the proposition

In this case the poster (GM) processed this proposition and interpreted it as a fact.

This kind non critical thinking does a disservice to the climate movement and legitimate research.

It provides deniers with a club to beat legitimate science around the ears.
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Old 30-03-2021, 12:15   #12
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

Why so few in 2018, 2019 and 2020 compared to 2017?
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Old 30-03-2021, 12:18   #13
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

Quote:
Originally Posted by Gaia View Post
Wonder why some non-scientists can always be found to question or criticize the collective work of qualified scientists well beyond their capacity to do so? Is it perhaps because of a reluctance to accept the validity of the warnings? An ostrich like approach?

Human caused climate change is obviously now proven to be real. Its effects on us living on the water will be the least of societie's worries. The very least we can do is vote for those taking the threat seriously enough to act.

Thanks for posting Gord.

Jim sv Gaia
Maybe because those "Scientists" work on grant money. Kill the grant money system and go back to real science and you will eliminate fake science and fake scientists. Same thing with the Covid-19 Pandemic.
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Old 30-03-2021, 12:29   #14
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

The global warming religious zealots should research global "warming" in relation to solar activity over the last 1,5 million years and the correlation to C02 in the atmosphere. Also follow the research money and who will profit from the hysteria caused by these zealots. C02 has been 800% to 1000% higher in the past and the earth flourished- plants like C02.


The earth's magnetosphere and gravity is decreasing causing increased cosmic ray activity which increases cloud formations and jet stream fluctuations-- rather than a generally smooth jet stream around the northern hemisphere we will have a flow which extends from Mexico to mid Canada causing more varied and unseasonable weather.



The earth is a capacitor.



Perhaps some have been wearing masks too long


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Old 30-03-2021, 14:40   #15
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Re: Changes in Tropical Cyclone Intensity & Track

I have lived in Florida 60 or so years and can tell you from my non scientific view it changes like the wind. Some years we get 6 or more ( 2004) for example and then some years we don't get any. 1935 was a cat 5 in the Keys. Irma hit us 3 years ago and beat things up a bit. prior to that we went years with non. I remember 1985 Hurricane Elana I think it was went up and down the west coast for about 3 days. Bottom line there is never any way to be sure so always keep a eye and ear out. Never say never. Now as always science is a best guess when it comes to forecasting these things. Some years they are real close and some they miss it by a mile.
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