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Old 22-11-2019, 11:18   #481
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

[QUOTE=Breaking Waves;3016517]Discussion of weather, routing, seamanship of La Vag's crossing - no politics or climate discussion pls...

Hahaha, you might want to rethink how you shorten La Vagabonde. La Vaga I believe is what her owners call her 😂

Respectfully,

JC
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Old 22-11-2019, 11:21   #482
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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The routing news today is No News.

The crush zone/frontal is well in front of them, the sub-tropical low is looking even less threatening, there is some wind forecast for the 26th and 28th (low pressure which has long been forecast for them over Azores) on the fastest route but they can minimize that by staying a bit further south.

They are probably sighing a bit of relief - just settle in and enjoy sailing the boat.

There will be an ongoing routing balance between going north to chase more wind and speed, and staying further south to knock off the peak winds as the lows go overhead. I am guessing they will stay systematically more south than the optimal routing - but we will see - Nikki's racing drive may kick in, but they may also be able to get more out of this boat in somewhat lighter winds/flater seas.

My current routing eta is Dec 6th, but that ofc depends on boat speed which I still have not really gotten to grips with. Could be earlier.
Yes, ofc
And in addition to boat speed, also (as you are explaining) the strategy they choose (north or south) (which has consequences not only for the boat speed, but also for the distance to go).

So, the main number to emphasize on, is not the boat speed (SOG), but rather the Velocity Made Good (VMG). Last night they averaged an impressive 9 knots VMG (towards Lisbon, between 2250 GMT 21Nov and 1050 22Nov)
Does your routing take them north of the Azores? I guess that they'll pass that Portuguese archipelago in the middle of next week (Wednesday?). I note that there may be a small High pressure ridge building up there.
Maybe most favorable winds may be found if sailing between the islands?
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Old 22-11-2019, 11:25   #483
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

On the 25th they get run over by a high-pressure ridge between the low in the front and the low behind - there is no way to avoid this. Just sail as long as you can, and they get a good sleep and meal until the wind fills back in (or motor).

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Then the 26th they get rolled over by the front in the coming low, a short period of real gale. Again, pretty much no way to avoid this.

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And on the 27th they reach the peak of the routing, which is the fastest theoretical course. But I have marked in an alternative set of waypoints I would be considering in black circles (these marks are on the prior pics, just not curcled if you want to see how they they play out). I would basically sail the route until the 24th, and then think about being a bit lower along these black waypoints. The reason is twofold (a) a bit lower = a bit less risk of strongest winds and (b) a bit lower is less distance sailed and if you go higher you are potentially chasing extra speed which does not actually materialize. On the 24th I would evaluate the weather forecasts, things will have changed if it still says go highj and I feel the forecast is high confidence I would; but if it is lower confidence I would take the black circle route.

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Old 22-11-2019, 11:26   #484
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Just looked at the weather where they are at this moment. Looks pretty good.


As far as kids on board, more power to them so long as they are prudent sailors and use all the tools available to be as safe as possible. Me - I'd rather be out there doing that than driving cross town to run an errand. Granted, if the kids get sick, or the parents, it becomes more serious. But Life is a serious, risky business. They are living a far safer life than 90+% of the people on this planet. huge numbers of people all over the world are standing on dry land and are sick with fatal diseases and no doctors or medicine available. The sea is a far healthier place than many places. Fair winds......
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Old 22-11-2019, 11:28   #485
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Here is the wind histogram for the middle route. You can see the under 10kts in the high pressure ridge between the lows on the 25th and then the short frontal gale on the 26th.

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Old 22-11-2019, 11:29   #486
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Good deep angles, with a bunch of jybing.

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Old 22-11-2019, 11:32   #487
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

I did tune the polars up a little based on recent perfomance - the middle route here has an 8.8kt average, 4.99 low and 10.6kt max. Feels like it is in the ballpark, but may be just a little faster than they actually are . . . . but the next week will be interesting to see how the boat goes because they have every incentive to push it along (safely) - no more routing reasons to hold back
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Old 22-11-2019, 11:36   #488
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Maybe most favorable winds may be found if sailing between the islands?
From a sailing perspective, I would choose to sail either above or below the islands. In between the islands you can have wind shadows with no wind and then wind acceleration zones with twice the wind. It can be frustrating and is a ton more work and potential for mistakes and breakage.

But they are very pretty islands, and I guess only Nikki has seen them, so from a pleasure/tourist perspective it would be fun to sail close thru them.
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Old 22-11-2019, 12:17   #489
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Macallans,, well someone knows a thing or two about single malts ,, cheers LaVag
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Old 22-11-2019, 12:44   #490
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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From a sailing perspective, I would choose to sail either above or below the islands. In between the islands you can have wind shadows with no wind and then wind acceleration zones with twice the wind. It can be frustrating and is a ton more work and potential for mistakes and breakage.

But they are very pretty islands, and I guess only Nikki has seen them, so from a pleasure/tourist perspective it would be fun to sail close thru them.
I would opt for over the top of Terceira, with the Stream and predominant N winds it will put them on the best option for a Lisbon landfall.. and if they hit a 3 day wet S'Westerly it wont hurt much, just be a bit lumpy.
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Old 22-11-2019, 13:14   #491
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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My point is very simple, good seamanship is about making good decisions and minimizing risk, heading into the wrong ocean at the wrong time of year on a schedule when you dont have to is taking unnecessary risk. I'm all for adventure, been doing it for 10 years, would Riley of undertaken this passage if Greata wasnt involved, I doubt it.
The concept of good seamanship is a fundamental one and it's useful to critically assess our own decisions and those of others so that we learn and improve. I would add, however, that risk is only one side of the coin; we should also assess the reward resulting from the more or less risky decision.

My guess is that Riley and Elayna are genuinely concerned about climate change and they saw a tremendous opportunity to raise awareness. This opportunity or reward, in my opinion, would justify taking on more risk within reason. Perhaps part of the equation was wondering what kind of planet baby Lenny will be inheriting if the world continues on its course of inaction?

If the above is correct (and this voyage is not primarily about marketing and money), my respect for Riley and Elayna has greatly increased.
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Old 22-11-2019, 13:24   #492
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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I would opt for over the top of Terceira, with the Stream and predominant N winds it will put them on the best option for a Lisbon landfall..
Yeah, that was my thinking as well; on an ENE-ly course through the passage between the Westernmost (Flores) and Central (Horta, Faial, Terceira) island groups of the Azores
I was anticipating they would approach the Azores from a SW-ly direction, though, but if I understand Breaking Waves' optimal routing correctly, they will maybe be approaching from the NW?
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Old 22-11-2019, 13:56   #493
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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I would opt for over the top of Terceira,
You been there for the running of the bulls?

It's one of my strong memories from our early cruising. We had a Portuguese friend on board, whose father owned an old estate making Port. So, we were invited/accepted into the local scene and freely shared plenty of great old Port to drink. It was a special time. A bit like much later we were invited into Castle Dunvegan for a private string quartet recital and had tea and crumpets on the clan silver while John McCloud's son sang french love songs. . . . some special times leaving a warm memory for my old age

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optimal routing correctly, they will maybe be approaching from the NW?
Yes, that's the current scenario, but how high to go has bobbled back and forth depending on the forecast details. We will zero in better on the 24ths.
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Old 22-11-2019, 14:05   #494
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pirate Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Yup.!!!
Hilarious when one bull chased a bunch of guys who jumped off the quay to escape a bull.. which jumped right in after them.
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Old 22-11-2019, 14:34   #495
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

my guess is right round the top
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