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Old 24-11-2019, 06:43   #631
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by conachair View Post
Irrelevant on this thread.
I agree [emoji106]
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Old 24-11-2019, 06:50   #632
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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you are not impressed by a 15yr old getting to address the UN,,, well i guess someone somewhere was .,,
and what do you think about the weather , not impressed by that either ?
There are many people in the world who are in the right place at the right time. Ms. Thunberg is one of those who spoke up about something she doesn't really have the capacity to understand (witness her emphasis on PV solar).

She's on a big boat with accomplished sailors who have the infrastructure to get weather information on board and the expertise to apply it. The weather hasn't been bad. Just what, specifically, about weather is supposed to lead to being impressed with Ms. Thunberg? She's a passenger. Should I be impressed by a passenger on the lido deck of a cruise ship for the master's decision to swap a couple of stops due to weather?

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Science is not about consensus but about questioning and challenging the consensus.

Fridays for future would be meaningful if this kids go fridays to school and actually learn something for the future instead of marching on the streets and parroting paroles of some greenees not even knowing what the green in the plants is good for and how photosynthesis works.
I think I like you. Science is for contrarians. I don't trust anyone, including myself. Question conclusions. Question assumptions. Question methodology.

Have you noticed that student activists have walk-outs and "strikes" during school? Nowhere to be seen on the weekends. It leads me to question the motivation of the crowds of kids.
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Old 24-11-2019, 07:00   #633
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Auspicious View Post
There are many people in the world who are in the right place at the right time. Ms. Thunberg is one of those who spoke up about something she doesn't really have the capacity to understand (witness her emphasis on PV solar).

She's on a big boat with accomplished sailors who have the infrastructure to get weather information on board and the expertise to apply it. The weather hasn't been bad. Just what, specifically, about weather is supposed to lead to being impressed with Ms. Thunberg? She's a passenger. Should I be impressed by a passenger on the lido deck of a cruise ship for the master's decision to swap a couple of stops due to weather?



I think I like you. Science is for contrarians. I don't trust anyone, including myself. Question conclusions. Question assumptions. Question methodology.

Have you noticed that student activists have walk-outs and "strikes" during school? Nowhere to be seen on the weekends. It leads me to question the motivation of the crowds of kids.
And again, not that it does any good ....

Irrelevant on this thread.....

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
Discussion of weather, routing, seamanship of La Vag's crossing - no politics or climate discussion pls.
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Old 24-11-2019, 07:07   #634
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Auspicious View Post
There are many people in the world who are in the right place at the right time. Ms. Thunberg is one of those who spoke up about something she doesn't really have the capacity to understand (witness her emphasis on PV solar).

She's on a big boat with accomplished sailors who have the infrastructure to get weather information on board and the expertise to apply it. The weather hasn't been bad. Just what, specifically, about weather is supposed to lead to being impressed with Ms. Thunberg? She's a passenger. Should I be impressed by a passenger on the lido deck of a cruise ship for the master's decision to swap a couple of stops due to weather?



I think I like you. Science is for contrarians. I don't trust anyone, including myself. Question conclusions. Question assumptions. Question methodology.

Have you noticed that student activists have walk-outs and "strikes" during school? Nowhere to be seen on the weekends. It leads me to question the motivation of the crowds of kids.
well i wonder if that is an acceptable tangectory , i have not seen anything as yet about Gretas ability as a sailor or weather watcher , not my place to decide , my question to you about the weather was to try to guide you back onto original thread re weather etc,, but you seem to have your own agenda
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Old 24-11-2019, 07:10   #635
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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that Northern low has now long gone which might have left a calm patch but they might now just get the tail of the TS after all , is seems to be moving quite quick ,, 30 mph i believe
nope, Atolls TS seems to be passing throo the area rapidly , leaving a calm period in a day or two
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Old 24-11-2019, 07:45   #636
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

There used to be a time when talking about the weather was a safe friendly topic until someone made it their religion.[emoji57]

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Old 24-11-2019, 07:47   #637
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

LV quite close to yesterday's routing, just a bit south.

And current routing very close to yesterdays - no significant change.

So continue steady as she goes ENE. Continuing to look each model run at how high you need to go to stay in wind.

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Old 24-11-2019, 07:51   #638
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

They still run into lighter wind in ridge between the lows on the 25th, but if they are in luck 'lighter' will still be 15kts - if they are unlucky it will be under 10kts.

And on 26th get 30kts sustained in frontal edge of next low, but not for two long.

They cannot avoid these two features.
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Old 24-11-2019, 07:51   #639
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by conachair View Post
And again, not that it does any good ....

Irrelevant on this thread.....
Science is always relevant. Answering the questions and challenges of others is also relevant.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cherod View Post
well i wonder if that is an acceptable tangectory , i have not seen anything as yet about Gretas ability as a sailor or weather watcher , not my place to decide , my question to you about the weather was to try to guide you back onto original thread re weather etc,, but you seem to have your own agenda
I've put many more words into weather and other seamanship issues than Ms. Thunberg's capacity. Pushing back against silly or otherwise unfounded statements is itself part of the judgment of good seamanship. Do you throw docklines to some yahoo you have never met when docking? Push back.

Y'all have looked at the NOAA Atlantic brief that shows the fronts, right? No one seems to care about those but me, and perhaps the crew on La Vagabonde. I can assure you that they care.
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Old 24-11-2019, 07:56   #640
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

On the 27th there is a big ridge forming to the south. there will be a decision whether to go quite high/north to chase wind pressure, or to stay down near the edge of pressure and just sail along in light air.

weather 27th 0600 pictured here with black X on boat position along the two routing options

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They do not want to get caught in the middle of this ridge with no wind, so they do need to keep up some amount of northing now, but it will be a decision how high to go.

On the 28th a low fills in from behind, with another decently strong frontal edge, and I would prefer to be on the southern option shown here than the northern when that happens.

28th weather picture with X's for boat position as the front approaches

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from here you can basically start steering direct for Lisbon
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Old 24-11-2019, 08:02   #641
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Auspicious View Post
Science is always relevant. Answering the questions and challenges of others is also relevant.
Better off in your own thread then please. This thread is about weather/routing on a particular passage despite a few trying to derail it.
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Old 24-11-2019, 08:07   #642
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

The black line here is the euro forecast track for the TS from about a week ago.

That euro modeling was surprisingly accurate.

I have found that it helps accuracy a lot to not have any slack pressure areas on the map (eg with mushy ill-defined systems with middling pressure), to have it all filled up with strong well-defined systems (lows and highs), and that was the case here - strong high pressure pushing from the west and strong lows creating suction from above.

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CPA to the boat is about 420nm
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Old 24-11-2019, 08:15   #643
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

I just joined Cruisers Forum because I thought this thread was showcasing the supportive community that sailing represents, but am loosing that respect reading the recent posts.

Open discourse on issues and politics is important in society, but we've created social norms that prohibit 'talking politics'. I wonder if that is why we don't know how to respect others even we don't share the exact same world view- we weren't taught how, and we surround ourselves with people with like world views (confirmation bias), becoming even more deeply entrenched in our own perspectives.

This thread was specifically started to discuss weather/routing and seemed like it was trying to avoid falling into these gutters of trash talk and bullying. It's a shame its wavering from that- I was proud of the cruising community for refraining form that kind of dehumanizing school-yard behaviour.

I think if we focus on what values we all do share, instead of stances and positions, this forum could actually provide some meaningful support and insight to the cruising community about this journey. For example, I think we can all agree that the weather routing is interesting and valuable to learn from, we all wish these lovely (and very real) humans safe passage, we all want a healthy/clean ocean to explore, and we all want kids to have a great future. I doubt anyone would disagree with this, and I would think everyone has these values in common- we are just disagreeing on the 'how that's achieved' which needs to be discussed constructively and collaboratively with multiple world views.
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Old 24-11-2019, 08:16   #644
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by atoll View Post
good news is they are now,or will be soon within the range of the rescue services if they need airlifting off the cat.
lots of migrating whales in the area around the azores at this time of year,it would not end well hitting one at 10 knots with the boards down.

apologies , again , for any perceived transtangentering
Hitting a floating object with 10kts is really a bad thing to do. But I guess
it wouldn't cause too much harm to an Outremer. The daggeboards are
constructed to be sacrificial, their housing is strongly reinforced, so
they could probably continue they voyage.

The outremer cats are really made for bluewater cruising, lots of
safety features and absolutely seaworthy.

Jean-Pierre Balmès sailed a simliar boat (4X) single handed on the last
Route du Rhum Race from Saint-Malo (France) to Guadeloupe through
terrible storms in the atlantic (50kts sustained the first few days) and
finished 5th out of 21 in the RhumMulti class.
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Old 24-11-2019, 08:25   #645
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

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Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
On the 27th there is a big ridge forming to the south. there will be a decision whether to go quite high/north to chase wind pressure, or to stay down near the edge of pressure and just sail along in light air.

weather 27th 0600 pictured here with black X on boat position along the two routing options

Attachment 203666

They do not want to get caught in the middle of this ridge with no wind, so they do need to keep up some amount of northing now, but it will be a decision how high to go.

On the 28th a low fills in from behind, with another decently strong frontal edge, and I would prefer to be on the southern option shown here than the northern when that happens.

28th weather picture with X's for boat position as the front approaches

Attachment 203667

from here you can basically start steering direct for Lisbon
i guess it depends on which projections you are watching ,, for mine i would say go on up to the 40 N mark and then stay due E ,, although a period of calm may be , it is not any better further up and that could set them up nicely for the next westerly system , all the way home ( of course a bit difficult to project that far ahead )
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