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Old 20-11-2019, 17:22   #331
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

here is a track forcast from the ukmet office,interestingly the more westerly tracks are showing the strongest winds

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guid...120h_large.png

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guid...CENS_large.png
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Old 20-11-2019, 17:29   #332
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeepFrz View Post
Oh, the finger wagging, the clucking of tongues and the wringing of hands. Where oh where is the "just go" crowd when you need them?


Agree, they are out there living life being judged by the armchair crowd. But it is getting them plenty of publicity whether they want it or not.
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Old 20-11-2019, 17:52   #333
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeepFrz View Post
Oh, the finger wagging, the clucking of tongues and the wringing of hands. Where oh where is the "just go" crowd when you need them?
Haven't read too much that's overly critical, just some people expressing concerns over the well known hazards of such a passage this time of year that most offshore sailors -- experienced or not -- would be well aware of. Suggesting that this particular passage is a good candidate for a "just go" sort of approach can only mean you're inexperienced, unaware, or both.

Quote:
Originally Posted by smj View Post
Agree, they are out there living life being judged by the armchair crowd. But it is getting them plenty of publicity whether they want it or not.
Actually, in this thread anyway, it's not the armchair crowd expressing concerns, but the several who are widely known to be very experienced. Unless they've been yankin' our collective chains all these years.

Chances are LV & their capable crew will be just fine, and have taken and will continue to take all reasonable precaution.
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Old 20-11-2019, 17:53   #334
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Hope Gerta Thunberg and Lenny are doing well.
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Old 20-11-2019, 17:55   #335
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

They have shifted their course back a little.

Someone will have to report if this is explained in facebook (which I do not follow), but I am guessing perhaps they ran off deeper for a while to fix or adjust something.

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I am totally glad I don't have people watching my passages in micro detail like this
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Old 20-11-2019, 17:55   #336
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Haven't read too much that's overly critical, just some people expressing concerns over the well known hazards of such a passage this time of year that most offshore sailors -- experienced or not -- would be well aware of. Suggesting that this particular passage is a good candidate for a "just go" sort of approach can only mean you're inexperienced, unaware, or both.







Actually, in this thread anyway, it's not the armchair crowd expressing concerns, but the several who are widely known to be very experienced. Unless they've been yankin' our collective chains all these years.



Chances are LV & their capable crew will be just fine, and have taken and will continue to take all reasonable precaution.


Agree there is some great input in this thread, as well as the usual armchair sailors with their message of doom and gloom.
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Old 20-11-2019, 18:13   #337
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Everything suggests they have been making all the right decisions. They have a world class crew member and a competent skipper who are reportedly working well together. They have a good boat, although a catamaran would NOT be my first choice for such a passage. All in all, I'm impressed and respect their decision to do this. Their motivation is not necessarily just about fame and money. I'm sure, like many of us, Nikki and the La Vagas are genuinely concerned about the state of the planet.
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Old 20-11-2019, 18:21   #338
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

I'm struggling to see where we disagree.
Quote:
Originally Posted by daletournier View Post
I agree, I'm not seeing hasty judgements made, I'm seeing thought out opinions, not good or bad. These opinions are no less thought out than your own. We judge Dh, its human, judgement doesn't always have to be "judged as negative". Theres only one post here that I've seen that was a silly non thought out waste of time.

Anyway we are derailing a thread that breaking waves is putting alot of effort into.
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Old 20-11-2019, 18:24   #339
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Budawang View Post
Everything suggests they have been making all the right decisions. They have a world class crew member and a competent skipper who are reportedly working well together. They have a good boat, although a catamaran would NOT be my first choice for such a passage. All in all, I'm impressed and respect their decision to do this. Their motivation is not necessarily just about fame and money. I'm sure, like many of us, Nikki and the La Vagas are genuinely concerned about the state of the planet.
Personally I dont think the cats a issue, they seem to be sailing it conservatively. If they hit really bad stuff I personally see the cat as an asset, no, or minimal sail with dagger boards up, nothing to drip over, I see this as a good thing. I'm not sure it's more comfortable than a big mono in some of the conditions they have had but sailed well I believe it to be up the task.

And I'm a deep draft monohull sailor.
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Old 20-11-2019, 18:27   #340
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Breaking Waves View Post
They have shifted their course back a little.

Someone will have to report if this is explained in facebook (which I do not follow), but I am guessing perhaps they ran off deeper for a while to fix or adjust something.

Attachment 203489

I am totally glad I don't have people watching my passages in micro detail like this
i think the trick is to not sail during a period of active hurricanes,have a satellite tracker viewable by the public or announce it on social media whilst having a celebrity truant and baby onboard

i guess we will get a blow by blow account in the next 24hrs on the twitfeed
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Old 20-11-2019, 23:29   #341
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Quote:
Originally Posted by Budawang View Post
Everything suggests they have been making all the right decisions. They have a world class crew member and a competent skipper who are reportedly working well together. They have a good boat
I agree. You forgot to mention their professional shore based weather routing assistant.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Budawang View Post
All in all, I'm impressed and respect their decision to do this. Their motivation is not necessarily just about fame and money. I'm sure, like many of us, Nikki and the La Vagas are genuinely concerned about the state of the planet.
Again; I agree!
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Old 20-11-2019, 23:48   #342
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

The National Hurricane Center in Miami has upgraded their forecast on Tropical Storm SEBASTIEN.
The storm is now forecasted to reach Hurricane force (60 knots sustained winds) during the next 24 hrs.
The NHC Forecaster's discussion on the uncertainties is interesting:

Quote:
Sebastien made its anticipated turn to the north earlier today, and
the current motion is now 360/05 kt. The cyclone should turn to the
northeast tonight and begin to accelerate as it gets embedded in
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching cold front and
associated mid- to upper- level trough. The official forecast track
is near the previous one through 24 hours, and a little slower and
to the south of it beyond that time due to a shift in the model
guidance.

The approaching trough should provide a diffluent environment aloft
over Sebastien beginning tonight and persisting until the system
makes the transition to an extratropical cyclone in a couple of
days. This is expected to result in some intensification over the
next day or so. Once extratropical, the cyclone should gradually
become absorbed into a frontal zone through the end of the week.
I cross my fingers that SEBASTIEN will start moving NE soon!
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Old 20-11-2019, 23:54   #343
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Nikki Henderson's latest Facebook post. They're "still playing the tortoise not the hare" - but hoping that soon it will be "pedal down":

Quote:
Day 8

0540 ship's time and the dawn is nearly breaking the horizon. It’s been a serious night! We sailed through two or three thunderstorms - rain like a monsoon, thunder that made me nearly jump out of my skin ... I was just waiting to see if there were monsters under my bed ... bunk ... although we sleep in the saloon to avoid disturbing our precious crew mates ... so perhaps under the sofa? - and lightning. Wow. It was blinding - electric - stunning and terrifying at the same time. We avoided it all successfully.

We are still playing the tortoise not the hare - the weather looks possibly slightly better up ahead with the latest forecast, but we are keeping an eye on things and holding back until we are 100% happy. Then it will be pedal down and fast sailing east - I hope!
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Old 20-11-2019, 23:55   #344
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

Here are some links if you want to stalk them

https://cryptpad.fr/pad/#/2/pad/view...sVDW4/present/

Nikki posts a lot on her Facebook page.
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Old 21-11-2019, 01:05   #345
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Re: La Vagabonde's crossing

They jybed pretty much 'as scheduled' on the routing.

Based on Nikki's post, I am going to guess the couple back and forth course changes last night were to deal with wind shifts in thunderstorm squalls

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