Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooling

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

Any explanation that doesn't promote the MMGM Myth is poo pooed. Remember the reason for the panic has nothing to do with facts...but beleif.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

You have gotta feel sorry for the MMGW Cultists just a little because remember they are seeing their religious beliefs challanged challenged ...

“Owners of dogs will have noticed that, if you provide them with food and water and shelter and affection, they will think you are god.
Whereas owners of cats are compelled to realize that, if you provide them with food and water and shelter and affection, they draw the conclusion that they are gods.” ~ Christopher Hitchens

Such overwhelming scientific/religious evidence compels this dog bows down to you, the Cat.

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by newhaul

OK got an assignment. What if the "sea level rise" is actually due to the formation of new subsurface mountains ? Honestly I have seen no mention of that as a possible explanation. Heck that would mean that the ocean floor is rising up in some areas. That explanation would mean that people have not influenced the sea level rise. ( I personally haven't seen any rise of the ocean level beyond the daily rise and fall of the tides. )

Subduction and subsidence cause variations. Subduction is caused by tectonic plate action to the extent that the deep sea floor is no older than 200 million years. Subsidence caused by either the weight of buildings or the over extraction of ground water is actually the elephant in the room for doomsayers. For example the Maldives and some south pacific Islands aren't being flooded by sea level rise, they're actually sinking due to aforementioned subsidence. Interestingly enough, some studies show atolls and reefs have no trouble keeping up with sea level rise if left to their own devices.

Sent from my SGP521 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[JPA Cate]

Little Niue is one example of an upraised atoll. What used to be the freshwater lens is now well above sea level. The terrain is really jagged. Surrounded by the clearest ocean water i've ever seen.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

Subduction and subsidence cause variations. Subduction is caused by tectonic plate action to the extent that the deep sea floor is no older than 200 million years. Subsidence caused by either the weight of buildings or the over extraction of ground water is actually the elephant in the room for doomsayers. For example the Maldives and some south pacific Islands aren't being flooded by sea level rise, they're actually sinking due to aforementioned subsidence. Interestingly enough, some studies show atolls and reefs have no trouble keeping up with sea level rise if left to their own devices.

Sent from my SGP521 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

That and the rise of the seabed at the tectonic divergent zones.

[SailOar]

Atoll Formation | Wikipedia

In 1842, Charles Darwin explained the creation of coral atolls in the southern Pacific Ocean based upon observations made during a five-year voyage aboard the HMS Beagle from 1831 to 1836. Accepted as basically correct, his explanation involved considering that several tropical island types—from high volcanic island, through barrier reef island, to atoll—represented a sequence of gradual subsidence of what started as an oceanic volcano. He reasoned that a fringing coral reef surrounding a volcanic island in the tropical sea will grow upwards as the island subsides (sinks), becoming an "almost atoll", or barrier reef island, as typified by an island such as Aitutaki in the Cook Islands, Bora Bora and others in the Society Islands. The fringing reef becomes a barrier reef for the reason that the outer part of the reef maintains itself near sea level through biotic growth, while the inner part of the reef falls behind, becoming a lagoon because conditions are less favorable for the coral and calcareous algae responsible for most reef growth. In time, subsidence carries the old volcano below the ocean surface and the barrier reef remains. At this point, the island has become an atoll.

Atolls are the product of the growth of tropical marine organisms, and so these islands are only found in warm tropical waters. Volcanic islands located beyond the warm water temperature requirements of hermatypic (reef-building) organisms become seamounts as they subside and are eroded away at the surface. An island that is located where the ocean water temperatures are just sufficiently warm for upward reef growth to keep pace with the rate of subsidence is said to be at the Darwin Point. Islands in colder, more polar regions evolve towards seamounts or guyots; warmer, more equatorial islands evolve towards atolls, for example Kure Atoll...


Darwin's theory starts with a volcanic island which becomes extinct


As the island and ocean floor subside, coral growth builds a fringing reef,
often including a shallow lagoon between the land and the main reef


As the subsidence continues the fringing reef becomes a larger barrier reef
farther from the shore with a bigger and deeper lagoon inside


Ultimately the island sinks below the sea, and the barrier reef
becomes an atoll enclosing an open lagoon

Charles Darwin wrong about coral atoll evolution | UPI

...But a team of researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, using computer models to test Darwin's theory, found he underestimated the complexity and variety of atoll formations around the world.

Instead, the "see-sawing" rising and falling sea levels are at the heart of the distinct formations of the ringed reefs.

"Darwin actually got it mostly right, which is pretty amazing," Taylor Perron, a geologist at MIT and the study's co-author, told OurAmazingPlanet. But, Perron said, "he didn't know about these glacially induced sea-level cycles."...

"You can explain a lot of the variety you see just by combining these various processes -- the sinking of islands, the growth of reefs, and the last few million years of sea level going up and down rather dramatically," Perron said.

Darwin did his research in the Society Islands in the South Pacific, where the sinking of islands and rising sea level create perfect atolls.

But in places like Hawaii, where the water is colder and the volcano forming the Big Island is sinking rapidly, the reefs that form when sea level is lower can't keep up when glacial melt causes sea levels to rise...


The Keeling Islands, where Darwin studied, are a near-perfect example of atoll formation. (NASA EO-1)

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by SailOar

Atoll Formation | Wikipedia


Charles Darwin wrong about coral atoll evolution | UPI

Don't let the past influence your theories of everything..

[SailOar]

Originally Posted by newhaul

That and the rise of the seabed at the tectonic divergent zones.

That, and subsidence caused by collapse of meteor impact craters.

Chesapeake Bay impact crater | Wikipedia

Effects on local rivers

The continual slumping of the rubble within the crater has affected the flow of the rivers and shaped the Chesapeake Bay. The impact crater created a long-lasting topographic depression which helped predetermine the course of local rivers and the eventual location of Chesapeake Bay. Most important for present-day inhabitants of the area, the impact disrupted aquifers. The present freshwater aquifers lie above a deep salty brine, remnants of 100–145 million year old Early Cretaceous North Atlantic seawater,[6] making the entire lower Chesapeake Bay area susceptible to groundwater contamination.

The crater is also one of three factors contributing to the sinking of land near the Chesapeake Bay. For example, Hampton Roads is gradually sinking at a rate between 15 and 23 centimeters (5 and 7.5 inches) per century. This is occurring because of the slippage of the coast into the crater, the reverse effects of isostatic rebound of the crust of the earth from the weight of long absent glaciers north of Maryland, and groundwater removal.[7]

...and by Post-Glacial Rebound | Wikipedia

This layered beach at Bathurst Inlet, Nunavut is an example of post-glacial rebound after the last Ice Age. Little to no tide helped to form its layer-cake look. Isostatic rebound is still underway here.

...and also when major ocean currents change.

Sea level rise hotspot | Yale Climate Connection

...But as Kara Doran, an oceanographer with the U.S. Geological Survey explains, sea level rise is not that simple – or that even. Currents, tides, weather patterns, and even land masses themselves affect sea level. Take the Gulf Stream for example.

DORAN: “And when the Gulf Stream weakens, the water sort of sloshes and tilts back toward the coast. So as the Gulf Stream is slowing down, the water level can actually rise along the East Coast of the United States.”...

[SailOar]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q65O3qA0-n4

[StuM]

Originally Posted by conachair

Indeed, with the warmest year on record being 2014 with 2015 almost certain to be warmer........

Take your pick.

Let's be honest. As stated by the maintainers of the data, there is a 38% probability that 2014 was the warmest year on record according to the most alarmist of the four global temperature data sets. And by a whole 1/100th of a degree!

[jimbunyard]

And don't forget, gravity works sideways too...

[StuM]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

Subduction and subsidence cause variations. Subduction is caused by tectonic plate action to the extent that the deep sea floor is no older than 200 million years. Subsidence caused by either the weight of buildings or the over extraction of ground water is actually the elephant in the room for doomsayers. For example the Maldives and some south pacific Islands aren't being flooded by sea level rise, they're actually sinking due to aforementioned subsidence. Interestingly enough, some studies show atolls and reefs have no trouble keeping up with sea level rise if left to their own devices.

Sent from my SGP521 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

You've overlooked one other factor - volcanic subsidence. Darwin worked that out in his seminal 1842 paper along with how atolls and reefs keep up with changes.

But that doesn't fit the narrative so it has conveniently been forgotten as well.

[StuM]

"...But a team of researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, using computer models to test Darwin's theory, found he underestimated the complexity and variety of atoll formations around the world."

Never let the facts get in the way of a good model, eh!

Is that the same type of model that grossly over estimated the last 20 years temperature change?

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by StuM

You've overlooked one other factor - volcanic subsidence. Darwin worked that out in his seminal 1842 paper along with how atolls and reefs keep up with changes.

But that doesn't fit the narrative so it has conveniently been forgotten as well.

Noted!

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by StuM

Let's be honest. As stated by the maintainers of the data, there is a 38% probability that 2014 was the warmest year on record according to the most alarmist of the four global temperature data sets. And by a whole 1/100th of a degree!

Some perspective on that percentage

NOAA
Probability of
warmest year

2014 ~48%
2010 ~18%
2005 ~13%
2013 ~6%
1998 ~5%

2014 has the best chance of being the warmest year


GISS / NASA
Probability of
warmest year

2014 ~38%
2010 ~23%
2005 ~17%
1998 ~4%

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/briefings/201501.pdf

2014 has the best chance of being the warmest year.

NB - 1998 was the year of the strongest El Nino event of the previous 50 years. 2010 and 2005 were also El Nino years.

2014 was El Nino neutral