Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooling

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

Another take.

Computer simulations show that ice melting on Antarctica's land can feed sea-ice growth around the continent. Researchers are most concerned about land ice because it is the permanently frozen reservoir that, when it melts, will add to sea-level rise — which floating sea ice does not do.

Anyhoo, it's late Christmas Eve. My deceased business partner's ghost has just informed me that I will be visited by three ghosts, who will convince me that climate scientists are liars. Wish them luck.


As my gift to the world, I will not harrass anyone in these threads on Chrismas Day. Save your best material for Boxing Day. You're welcome.

My cousin, an airline pilot, had his shoulder operated on about two months ago and he was one sore flyboy. Hope that stops hurting soon GW.

Peace to all.

Thanks LE. Merry Christmas to you as well. I hope i don't have to have surgery. Seeing the specialist on Monday. Apparently the MRI is showing multiple micro tears. Oh. Looking on the bright side of melting ice on the land in Antartica this is great. Will make oil drilling a lot easier.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Going Walkabout

... I hope i don't have to have surgery. Seeing the specialist on Monday. Apparently the MRI is showing multiple micro tears.

Good luck, on Monday's appointment.

[StuM]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Do you bother to check the credibility of your sources?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nils-Axel_M%C3%B6rner

Nils-Axel Mörner is Wrong About Sea Level Rise

Nils-Axel Morner | DeSmogBlog

WTF? That question comes followed by links to Wikipedia, Skeptical Science and DeSmog?


Talk about irony*!


* a literary technique, originally used in Greek tragedy, by which the full significance of a character's words or actions are clear to the audience or reader although unknown to the character.

[Reefmagnet]

"Trust me, I'm a climate scientist"...

http://dailysignal.com//2009/11/17/g...lobal-warming/

:-)

Sent from my SGP521 using Cruisers Sailing Forum mobile app

[GoingWalkabout]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Good luck, on Monday's appointment.

Thank you very much GordMay

[jimbunyard]

Originally Posted by newhaul

OK here is a quote from one of jacks references

Climate change is real
There is now strong evidence that significant global warming is occurring. The evidence comes from direct measurements of rising surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures and, indirectly, from increases in average global sea levels.


And here is a quote from NASA that says something different
The cold waters of Earth’s deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005, according to a new NASA study, leaving unsolved the mystery of why global warming appears to have slowed in recent years.
https://www.nasa.gov/press/2014/octo.../#.Vn2B42U-mTm

First things first. The article reporting this 'new' study is from October 6, 2014.

So do you agree with the NASA article or not? Because these are the first two paragraphs of the article (not the study) that you link to:


"The cold waters of Earth’s deep ocean have not warmed measurably since 2005, according to a new NASA study, leaving unsolved the mystery of why global warming appears to have slowed in recent years.

Scientists at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in Pasadena, California, analyzed satellite and direct ocean temperature data from 2005 to 2013 and found the ocean abyss below 1.24 miles (1,995 meters) has not warmed measurably. Study coauthor Josh Willis of JPL said these findings do not throw suspicion on climate change itself."


The first paragraph is a little clumsily worded, and at first glance could be interpreted to mean that the deep ocean stopped warming in 2005, until one reads the second paragraph and realizes that this is an analytical study of the period from 2005 to 2013. Nothing is said about before 2005, so anything else inferred is just baseless assumption, and could possibly be construed as catering to an agenda...

The article continues to say:


" "The sea level is still rising," Willis noted. "We're just trying to understand the nitty-gritty details."

In the 21st century, greenhouse gases have continued to accumulate in the atmosphere, just as they did in the 20th century, but global average surface air temperatures have stopped rising in tandem with the gases. The temperature of the top half of the world's oceans -- above the 1.24-mile mark -- is still climbing, but not fast enough to account for the stalled air temperatures.

Many processes on land, air and sea have been invoked to explain what is happening to the "missing" heat. One of the most prominent ideas is that the bottom half of the ocean is taking up the slack, but supporting evidence is slim. This latest study is the first to test the idea using satellite observations, as well as direct temperature measurements of the upper ocean. Scientists have been taking the temperature of the top half of the ocean directly since 2005, using a network of 3,000 floating temperature probes called the Argo array.

"The deep parts of the ocean are harder to measure," said JPL's William Llovel, lead author of the study published Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change. "The combination of satellite and direct temperature data gives us a glimpse of how much sea level rise is due to deep warming. The answer is -- not much."

The study took advantage of the fact that water expands as it gets warmer. The sea level is rising because of this expansion and the water added by glacier and ice sheet melt.

To arrive at their conclusion, the JPL scientists did a straightforward subtraction calculation, using data for 2005-2013 from the Argo buoys, NASA's Jason-1 and Jason-2 satellites, and the agency’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites. From the total amount of sea level rise, they subtracted the amount of rise from the expansion in the upper ocean, and the amount of rise that came from added meltwater. The remainder represented the amount of sea level rise caused by warming in the deep ocean.

The remainder was essentially zero. Deep ocean warming contributed virtually nothing to sea level rise during this period.

Coauthor Felix Landerer of JPL noted that during the same period warming in the top half of the ocean continued unabated, an unequivocal sign that our planet is heating up. Some recent studies reporting deep-ocean warming were, in fact, referring to the warming in the upper half of the ocean but below the topmost layer, which ends about 0.4 mile (700 meters) down.

Landerer also is a coauthor of another paper in the same journal issue on 1970-2005 ocean warming in the Southern Hemisphere. Before Argo floats were deployed, temperature measurements in the Southern Ocean were spotty, at best. Using satellite measurements and climate simulations of sea level changes around the world, the new study found the global ocean absorbed far more heat in those 35 years than previously thought -- a whopping 24 to 58 percent more than early estimates."



So basically, it looks like all the article says is that NASA is using new tools to try and understand more completely the warming that virtually all the scientists in the world agree is happening and is driven increasingly by CO2 emissions created by man.

[SV THIRD DAY]

You have gotta feel sorry for the MMGW Cultists just a little because remember they are seeing their religious beliefs challanged....so cut them some slack as they warm up to the truth of no Warming in the last two decades, despite what was predicted in their holy Scriptures (models).

[conachair]

Originally Posted by SV THIRD DAY

You have gotta feel sorry for the MMGW Cultists just a little because remember they are seeing their religious beliefs challanged....so cut them some slack as they warm up to the truth of no Warming in the last two decades, despite what was predicted in their holy Scriptures (models).

Indeed, with the warmest year on record being 2014 with 2015 almost certain to be warmer........


Science and unsubstantiated opinion are certainly 2 different views of the planet.

Take your pick.

[newhaul]

OK got an assignment. What if the "sea level rise" is actually due to the formation of new subsurface mountains ? Honestly I have seen no mention of that as a possible explanation. Heck that would mean that the ocean floor is rising up in some areas. That explanation would mean that people have not influenced the sea level rise. ( I personally haven't seen any rise of the ocean level beyond the daily rise and fall of the tides. )

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

OK got an assignment. What if the "sea level rise" is actually due to the formation of new subsurface mountains ? Honestly I have seen no mention of that as a possible explanation. Heck that would mean that the ocean floor is rising up in some areas. That explanation would mean that people have not influenced the sea level rise. ( I personally haven't seen any rise of the ocean level beyond the daily rise and fall of the tides. )

Actually - since it is your hypothesis, you should find some supporting evidence.

In the meantime Sea Level Rise | Weather Underground

BTW - Sea Level Trends - NOAA Tides and Currents might help with understanding sea level changes.

Port Townsend. 1.69 mm per year rise
Seattle 1.99 mm per year rise

[SV THIRD DAY]

Any explanation that doesn't promote the MMGM Myth is poo pooed. Remember the reason for the panic has nothing to do with facts...but beleif.

[SV THIRD DAY]

Originally Posted by conachair

Indeed, with the warmest year on record being 2014 with 2015 almost certain to be warmer........


Science and unsubstantiated opinion are certainly 2 different views of the planet.

Take your pick.

Ha ha ha....classic myth.

[newhaul]

I will see what I can dig up. As far as the sea level numbers I don't believe that they represent a mean rise in sea level wouldn't a mean level rise be the same across the board not differing by a significant
Amount with the measurement locations you referenced being within 50 or so miles of each other?
Sounds more like variences in measurements that would fall well within the margin of error for such measures.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by conachair

Indeed, with the warmest year on record being 2014 with 2015 almost certain to be warmer........


Science and unsubstantiated opinion are certainly 2 different views of the planet.

Take your pick.

OK at is the accepted margin of error for the measurements personally I would guess the .004°c that they state being the deciding factor would be well within the error level. Heck I have a thermometer that will read up to 1°f different depending on weather it is oriented vertical or horizontal at the same centered level off the floor.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by newhaul

OK at is the accepted margin of error for the measurements personally I would guess the .004°c that they state being the deciding factor would be well within the error level. Heck I have a thermometer that will read up to 1°f different depending on weather it is oriented vertical or horizontal at the same centered level off the floor.

True, right on the edge of noise plus el nino year with heat being transfered from the oceans (how did it get there? ) , but the "it's not happening" really is head up the back side. There is no contention that big changes are happening extremely quickly to the energy content of the planet, the only discussion is just how much is down to humans changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere.