Do we need to be preparing for Arctic cruising strategies because of Global Cooling

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

It is 2 SD below the mean.

If you had an IQ -2 SD of the mean, it would be 70. About 97% of the population would be higher than you.

Jack if I really cared that comment would hurt my Id however I really am not bothered by such minor issues. And yes I do get the analogy however what does IQ ratings have to do with ice melt. ( just for the record my IQ was measured at 162)

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Jack if I really cared that comment would hurt my Id however I really am not bothered by such minor issues. And yes I do get the analogy however what does IQ ratings have to do with ice melt. ( just for the record my IQ was measured at 162)

OK - 97% of the recorded ice extents for this time of year were higher than the one recorded right now.

SD is a measure of variation within recorded data.

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

OK - 97% of the recorded ice extents for this time of year were higher than the one recorded right now.

SD is a measure of variation within recorded data.

Got that but now here's a new one this means that 3% of the readings in the data were lower than this current reading and if so how could is be the lowest on record?

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Got that but now here's a new one this means that 3% of the readings in the data were lower than this current reading and if so how could is be the lowest on record?

Currently 2012, a record, was lower. The month of June was a record, the ice extent was way below 2SD.

Check the graphs your self. http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ They are interactive.

BTW - how does an engineer with an IQ of 162 not understand statistics?

[StuM]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Currently 2012, a record, was lower. The month of June was a record, the ice extent was way below 2SD.

Check the graphs your self. Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag They are interactive.

BTW - how does an engineer with an IQ of 162 not understand statistics?

1 SD for IQ is about 15% with an margin of error for IQ of well under 4%

1 SD for Ice Extent at this time of year is less than 6% with a margin of error for extent of ???

(Strange that no one seems willing to say what that ??? is )

What does that tell you about trying to use an IQ of 70 for a comparison?

[jackdale]

Originally Posted by StuM

1 SD for IQ is about 15% with an margin of error for IQ of well under 4%

1 SD for Ice Extent at this time of year is less than 6% with a margin of error for extent of ???

(Strange that no one seems willing to say what that ??? is )

What does that tell you about trying to use an IQ of 70 for a comparison?

Huh?

What is standard deviation and how does it relate to sea ice extent?

Standard deviation is a measure of variation around a mean. One standard deviation is defined as encompassing 68% of the variation, and two standard deviations encompass 95% of the variation. Scientists use standard deviations as a way to estimate the range of variability of data. In the context of climate data like sea ice extent, it provides a sense of the range of expected conditions. Measurements that fall far outside of the two standard deviation range or consistently fall outside that range suggest that something unusual is occurring that can’t be explained by normal processes.

For sea ice extent data, the standard deviation is computed for each day of the year from the extent on that day over the 30 years of the baseline period, 1981 to 2010. Doubling the standard deviation to produce a 95% range means that 95% of the daily extents for the years 1981 to 2010 fall within that range.

In recent years, ice extent has declined and in the summer especially, it has regularly fallen outside of two standard deviations. This suggests that the recent decline in sea ice extent represents a significant change in conditions from 1981 to 2010 time period.

OK I was eye balling it and out by 2%

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by jackdale

Currently 2012, a record, was lower. The month of June was a record, the ice extent was way below 2SD.

Check the graphs your self. Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis | Sea ice data updated daily with one-day lag They are interactive.

BTW - how does an engineer with an IQ of 162 not understand statistics?

Jack in many of my posts here and the now closed thread have you not noticed my propencity to be the devils advocate . Which usually seems to stimulate the discussion in a healthier way.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

Well, I for one don't not believe there is a link between warming and atmospheric CO2 / greenhouse gas composition.

Originally Posted by StuM

Wot 'e sed!

Originally Posted by transmitterdan

Atmospheric CO2 contributes to atmospheric warming. It's a simple scientific fact.

Originally Posted by StuM

And 'im!

[Reefmagnet]

Originally Posted by conachair

I used a double negative to see who was paying attention.

[conachair]

Originally Posted by Reefmagnet

I used a double negative to see who was paying attention.

So there is

[Exile]

Originally Posted by Rustic Charm

I'm not sure if it's a case of you Reefy, Stu not understanding the science or that you have gone so far with your mocking that your simply way too proud to admit how wrong you have been

It sounds more like the dominance of El Nino (warmer) lately, and the predicted onset of La Nina (cooler). Seems to be quite a bit of scientific certainty accompanying that one. The longer term impact of MMGW due to rising CO2 is harder for the science to figure out.

Originally Posted by Factor

I read the thread, yes I know, I was bored - it was raining here. All I can say is that most of went went on here doesn't surprise me, from the people who think the moon landing was faked and aliens are real.

Fwiw, I don't think the moon landing was faked, have never questioned that the earth is round, believe that gravity and evolution are sound scientific theories, accept the link btwn. smoking and bad health effects, but don't have a clue about the existence of aliens. Oh, and I can easily go along with the scientific fact that humans have increased CO2 through their fossil fuel emissions, that CO2 is a GHG, that more GHG can cause more warming, but that 97% of CO2 in the atmosphere is derived from "natural" sources.

Beyond that, all I can do is try and better understand the competing theories, assume that almost all statements from politicians, the media, and politically obsessed zealots are biased and thus often bogus, and hope that one day climate scientists can get their act together and publish an objective, professional survey of their opinions. Maybe this will reflect a more honest and credible consensus on the state of the science that more of the public can believe, and that policymakers may then be able to act responsibly on. This seems more effective than the approach of Dr. Mann and other alarmists who, in a myriad of ways, are basically telling us we are doomed but offer no realistic remedies.

Sound reasonable, or did I miss something?

[Exile]

Originally Posted by newhaul

Jack in many of my posts here and the now closed thread have you not noticed my propencity to be the devils advocate . Which usually seems to stimulate the discussion in a healthier way.

But that's where you've faltered Newhaul. That sorta talk isn't appreciated by some around here!

[newhaul]

Originally Posted by Exile

But that's where you've faltered Newhaul. That sorta talk isn't appreciated by some around here!

Actually my biggest error was in telling all what my purpose on these type threads is.

[SV THIRD DAY]

Dr Mann...the fake Hokey Stick Graph...what else do you need to know about the MMGW Cult...halarious.

[GoingWalkabout]

So I ask. Do we need to be preparing for antarctic cold weather cruising strategies because of global cooling?

The question has changed a little since we are seeing differences now between the southern and northern polar regions.

While Russia may well succeed in opening up a new year round shipping chanel in the northern polar region aided by pan century shifts in northern climate we are seeing overall cooling events in the southern polar regions that perhaps shows a trend that may well be indicating cooling accross a large part of the planet.

Hence the question. Should we be needing to carry as standard equipment cold water immersion suites along with warm wet gear while sailing south and perhaps north of the equator?

Putting the question another way. Will we ever be seeing a white Christmas in the Bahamas?