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Old 24-04-2017, 06:50   #751
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

I suggest you read Taleb's book 'The Black Swan'. Next talk to Vincent Riou who by your 'incalculably small odds' hit an abandoned ocean buoy, cut his topsides and the waterstay of his outrigger and abandoned.

Incalculably small can actually count much more than we like to think. This is called a cognitive bias.

And then I can tell you my first hand experiences from hitting objects in the open sea.

You mention lottery tickets but you do not mention people win. Just in this lottery you lose. And it can as well be your life.

I am not sure where you sail. We cross oceans. I have seen very many very dangerous objects and we hit some. We were very lucky not to hit the "wrong" ones.

In some threads we discuss the number of collisions with UFOs, in another we claim UFOs are not dangerous.

Probably a subject for a new thread.

This boat got abandoned and has not been retrieved yet. Let's hope she washes up somewhere on a sandy beach and her owners can get her go places one day.

Cheers,
b.
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Old 24-04-2017, 07:42   #752
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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Originally Posted by barnakiel View Post
I suggest you read Taleb's book 'The Black Swan'. Next talk to Vincent Riou who by your 'incalculably small odds' hit an abandoned ocean buoy, cut his topsides and the waterstay of his outrigger and abandoned.

Incalculably small can actually count much more than we like to think. This is called a cognitive bias.

And then I can tell you my first hand experiences from hitting objects in the open sea.

You mention lottery tickets but you do not mention people win. Just in this lottery you lose. And it can as well be your life.

I am not sure where you sail. We cross oceans. I have seen very many very dangerous objects and we hit some. We were very lucky not to hit the "wrong" ones.

In some threads we discuss the number of collisions with UFOs, in another we claim UFOs are not dangerous.

Probably a subject for a new thread.

This boat got abandoned and has not been retrieved yet. Let's hope she washes up somewhere on a sandy beach and her owners can get her go places one day.

Cheers,
b.
I think what we're discussing is not cognitive bias but more likely a cognitive disorder. Believing that the captain was irresponsible for not scuttling his ship because you're afraid you might run into it sounds more like OCD than a rational argument. Everyone knows there is a lot of stuff in the ocean you can run into. If you really felt safer because the OP sent his life savings to the bottom that would be foolish indeed.
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Old 24-04-2017, 08:26   #753
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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Originally Posted by barnakiel View Post
I suggest you read Taleb's book 'The Black Swan'. Next talk to Vincent Riou who by your 'incalculably small odds' hit an abandoned ocean buoy, cut his topsides and the waterstay of his outrigger and abandoned.

Incalculably small can actually count much more than we like to think. This is called a cognitive bias.

And then I can tell you my first hand experiences from hitting objects in the open sea.
Twice at sea I had to dodge to avoid collisions with other sailboats. Once was daytime coastal, both boats on AP, the other skipper must have set his course and gone below. I was on deck and stand on vessel. Watched as our courses converged and finally altered to pass astern where I could see that there was no one on deck.

The other time was middle of the night, hundreds of miles from the nearest land. I thought I saw a shadow or something dead ahead. About 100' away I could finally make was another sailboat on a head on collision course. No lights, no one deck. I altered course again and we passed port to port about 50' apart.

Both situations I would call very small odds of occurring but they did. So far have not hit any UFOs.
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Old 24-04-2017, 09:30   #754
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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Twice at sea I had to dodge to avoid collisions with other sailboats. Once was daytime coastal, both boats on AP, the other skipper must have set his course and gone below. I was on deck and stand on vessel. Watched as our courses converged and finally altered to pass astern where I could see that there was no one on deck.

The other time was middle of the night, hundreds of miles from the nearest land. I thought I saw a shadow or something dead ahead. About 100' away I could finally make was another sailboat on a head on collision course. No lights, no one deck. I altered course again and we passed port to port about 50' apart.

Both situations I would call very small odds of occurring but they did. So far have not hit any UFOs.
I'm not sure which side of the argument you're on here. No collision happened in either case so your stories indicate that a prudent sailor would not collide with an abandoned vessel.
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Old 24-04-2017, 09:39   #755
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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Originally Posted by barnakiel View Post
I suggest you read Taleb's book 'The Black Swan'. Next talk to Vincent Riou who by your 'incalculably small odds' hit an abandoned ocean buoy, cut his topsides and the waterstay of his outrigger and abandoned.

Incalculably small can actually count much more than we like to think. This is called a cognitive bias.

And then I can tell you my first hand experiences from hitting objects in the open sea.

You mention lottery tickets but you do not mention people win. Just in this lottery you lose. And it can as well be your life.

I am not sure where you sail. We cross oceans. I have seen very many very dangerous objects and we hit some. We were very lucky not to hit the "wrong" ones.

In some threads we discuss the number of collisions with UFOs, in another we claim UFOs are not dangerous.

Probably a subject for a new thread.

This boat got abandoned and has not been retrieved yet. Let's hope she washes up somewhere on a sandy beach and her owners can get her go places one day.

Cheers,
b.

If one worries about such things, given the low probabilities, then perhaps there are no safe endeavors for that person.

People hit other ships (and sometimes bouys) because they ply the same waters. That is not random chance. Hitting an abandoned sailing yacht is a random occurrence and highly unlikely. I have never heard or read a first hand account about it in fact.

Only stupid people who can't do math win the lottery. Winning does not make them smart. In reality, winning the lottery is shown to shorten one's life expectancy. If I bought a lottery ticket I would be more worried I would win than the odds of hitting an abandoned yacht.
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Old 24-04-2017, 09:46   #756
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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Why should the insurer pay because someone crashed into it by failing to keep a lookout? in fact that could really back fire if you caused damage to an abandoned yacht not under command by failing to keep a look out

Pete
Indeed. A collision like that will almost certainly be at least 50% the fault of the vessel which was manned at the time.
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Old 24-04-2017, 09:49   #757
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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Ok , so then, the question that needs asking is : In the same circumstances would you have ridden it out or scuttled Your boat? Can that even be answered?
If it were just me, I'd like to think I would have stayed aboard until I figured something out.
However, in this case I believe he had family, and small children.
That changes things drastically, I believe your primary duty in that case is to them, to ensure their safety.
Had to be a tough decision for him, but I'd like to think that in the same circumstance I'd do what he did, I think he make the tough choice and did the right thing.
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Old 24-04-2017, 09:51   #758
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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Originally Posted by transmitterdan View Post

(...)

Hitting an abandoned sailing yacht is a random occurrence and highly unlikely.

(...)
Does it equal 'random occurrences are highly unlikely'?

Or does the guest appearance of the word 'boat' make the case special?

I am afraid I learned probability theory from different books.

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Old 24-04-2017, 09:58   #759
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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Sorry, no radar here.
One abandoned sailboat is just a rounding error, on the list of things you may smash into at night in the ocean, if you don't have radar. Going out into the ocean without radar is a certain risk which may or may not be reasonable, but in any case, the OP has not even moved the needle of your total risks.



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If the boat was not sinking, or sunk, it should not be abandoned. The crew can be transferred to another ship, then the skipper can keep on limping on. Or is Atlantic there, at this time, too dangerous for such an attempt? . . .
I disagree. No rudder and not able to jury rig something is a perfectly reasonable case for abandoning. Have you ever been on a sailboat with a broken rudder? In the ocean? There are a dozen other reasons (at least) besides sinking, which justify abandoning ship. What about fire? Whole crew dying of food poisoning? Single-hander with a heart attack or any other serious health crisis?
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Old 24-04-2017, 10:17   #760
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

Yep.

When we hit something it is CAN be also our fault (even when we hit it in a rain squall though ?). Yes. It can be. Do not tweet and drive. Herzog was right.

But we can only hit something that is there. If the thing is not there, we cannot hit it.

So either we are in favour of throwing rubbish into oceans or we are against it. We however get penalized only if we are in favour of throwing it.

If we had another discussion and the drifting object were an oil platform suddenly all hypocrites would claim NOW the risk is real and the oil company are pigs.

But. We are drifting wildly now no? If we get hit by the mods, is this the mods' fault, or ours?

Be coherent.

b.
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Old 24-04-2017, 10:27   #761
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

No radar Barnakiel? My god man, don't you know you shouldn't leave your dock without turning on your radar and AIS? Actually you should leave your AIS on while at the dock so other boaters know where you are, cuts down on collisions don't you know? Next you'll tell me your sailing without a washing machine, how barbaric can you get:-)
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Old 24-04-2017, 10:54   #762
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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(...)

I disagree. No rudder and not able to jury rig something is a perfectly reasonable case for abandoning. Have you ever been on a sailboat with a broken rudder? In the ocean? There are a dozen other reasons (at least) besides sinking, which justify abandoning ship. What about fire? Whole crew dying of food poisoning? Single-hander with a heart attack or any other serious health crisis?
Yes.

The catalogue of possible reasons is probably more lengthy than we imagine heading offshore.

Why were they not able to rig a jury control? There were some boats that did make it under jury steering. Just last year there were at least two I know of. One across most of the Atlantic and another one from the Coral Sea, round the Barrier Reef, to Australia.

Too bad few boats carry a spare rudder. Given the rate of rudder failures, it makes a perfect sense to set off with one, or else have a tested and viable alternative.

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Old 24-04-2017, 11:00   #763
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

I tried a small "fishing" sea anchor as a drogue. Once I learned I needed to run the lines through my mid ship cleats, it seem to work very well.
But, it was mild weather and almost no sea state, and I'm a full keel, and the rudder was still attached.
I need to get something more substantial than the fishing sea anchor, but it seems a drogue at least on my boat will work.
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Old 24-04-2017, 11:06   #764
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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. . .Too bad few boats carry a spare rudder. Given the rate of rudder failures, it makes a perfect sense to set off with one, or else have a tested and viable alternative.. . .
We can certainly agree on that.

I am guilty of not having a spare rudder. Will probably not attempt to arrange one on this boat, but the next boat will definitely have something.

Those with wind vanes are automatically covered.
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Old 24-04-2017, 11:08   #765
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Re: Urgent help needed to recover abandoned yacht NW Barbados

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No radar Barnakiel? My god man, don't you know you shouldn't leave your dock without turning on your radar and AIS? Actually you should leave your AIS on while at the dock so other boaters know where you are, cuts down on collisions don't you know? Next you'll tell me your sailing without a washing machine, how barbaric can you get:-)
Ha! ;-)

And more seriously: not sure our power budget would allow us running one (other than brief periods). Having a radar onboard and not using it could be as good as not having one. Where we sail, there are no fogs, but there are rain squalls and then there are long periods of torrential rain - a radar would be a great help then, I think.

So, as is, we are sailing with an AIS receiver (switched OFF, at the dock) and this time we will likely step up to a transceiver. I do look at radars now and then again - esp last two years that they seem to be getting much smaller, lighter and better - but I cannot see a viable way to set one up here.

Interestingly, what you mention about the AIS active at the dock ;-) ... there is something to it too - should your boat leave the dock without you onboard ... you can fire up MarineTraffic on your smartphone and pay the new 'owner' a surprise visit! (BTW the same can be done with any DSC radio if you leave it on!)

So, not all hope is lost.
b.
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