Watch out for Patricia

[donradcliffe]

According to the NHC, Patricia is taking aim at Zeehag and is forecast to come ashore as a major hurricane. What do the local pundits say??

[zeehag]

patricia is a category 5 monster fromhell taking aim at sw mexicoast. she is a beautiful formation, and as such will be deadly as hell
the center is to hit mexicoast some few miles from here. so...
right now i am out of the cone of death. i hope we stay out here.

this mayhem will make a destruction of all in path. we are luckily in a protected arwa. lets hope it is protected enough.
we have neighbors, yes, they are staying on boat. we have megas and cruisers..
i see there will be much damages to the beachfront towns. what wasnt gone in jova in 2011 will be gone from this one. it is most sad.
but inhere, inside the marina puerta nueva, it is somewhat diffeerent.. we will se ehow protected as this progresses.
i will notify folks of my imminent demise. or i might do that notification of death thing after the storm passses

[travellerw]

Oh man.. I have been so focused on the Caribbean that I missed this..

My thoughts are with you.... I sure hope something changes.

[SaltyMonkey]

Be careful zee zee !!!!

[Jacko]

Hang in there Zeehag I well know how you feel we are heading into the Cyclone season down here in Far North of Aust so thinking of you Good Luck

[Viking Sailor]

Originally Posted by zeehag

patricia is a category 5 monster fromhell taking aim at sw mexicoast. she is a beautiful formation, and as such will be deadly as hell
the center is to hit mexicoast some few miles from here. so...
right now i am out of the cone of death. i hope we stay out here.

this mayhem will make a destruction of all in path. we are luckily in a protected arwa. lets hope it is protected enough.
we have neighbors, yes, they are staying on boat. we have megas and cruisers..
i see there will be much damages to the beachfront towns. what wasnt gone in jova in 2011 will be gone from this one. it is most sad.
but inhere, inside the marina puerta nueva, it is somewhat diffeerent.. we will se ehow protected as this progresses.
i will notify folks of my imminent demise. or i might do that notification of death thing after the storm passses

Sweetie,

Keep your head down, and your power dry!

Best of luck,

Paul

[Strait Shooter]

Hang tough Zee!

[Tx J]

I hope y'all stay as safe and sound as possible, Zee and all the others in that area.
I've been following Patricia closely since it's beginning (WX nut).
The NHC this morning (0900UTC report) announced that Patricia is the strongest hurricane/cyclone yet measured in BOTH the Eastern Pacific AND the Atlantic. It is a monster of historic proportions:
Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion
"Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing."

Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Advisory
"HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.5W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 880 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 175 KT WITH GUSTS TO 215 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT.......150NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..135NE 240SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 105.5W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 105.4W
(following near future fcst indicates further strenghting expected):
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W MAX WIND 180 KT...GUSTS 220 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. "

NOW: Steady winds- 175KT/201mph, gusts to 215KT/247mph
FCST soon: Steady winds- 180KT/207mph, gusts to 220KT/253mph

There isn't much that can withstand winds like that...especially the effect of gusting.
I went through (slightly inland) a weakened Hurricane Allen (and many others), which held the most intense/or second storm record, awesome scary stuff. Twice experienced steady winds of 100-110mph+ in the house, cannot imagine 200mph+ in a house or aboard a boat...

Some links, NHC and NESDIS satellite:
NHC
National Hurricane Center

Latest Satellite Imagery (index):
Latest Satellite Imagery

East Pacific Tropical Products:
East Pacific Tropical Page - Satellite Products and Services Division - Office of Satellite and Product Operations

Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters:
Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm Floaters - Satellite Products and Services Division - Office of Satellite and Product Operations

Patricia IR:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...o-animated.gif

Patricia RB:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...o-animated.gif

And of course for the really detailed stuff there is the NMOC and others.

Again, hoping for the best for those in the path of Patricia.
I cannot image anyone actually out on the water anywhere close to this could survive it, even aboard large ships.

[HappyMdRSailor]

Originally Posted by Tx J

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 880 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 175 KT WITH GUSTS TO 215 KT.
(following near future fcst indicates further strenghting expected):
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W MAX WIND 180 KT...GUSTS 220 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 130NW. "

NOW: Steady winds- 175KT/201mph, gusts to 215KT/247mph
FCST soon: Steady winds- 180KT/207mph, gusts to 220KT/253mph

Holy Crap....

[jimbunyard]

Well, at least two less bad things:

From the NHCs' most recent public advisory.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

So at least the worst of it is relatively compact (for now, anyway).

And secondly, the strongest, northeastern quadrant winds will be offshore, initially blowing the water out and somewhat dampening swell.

Still, 200 is a unimaginable to me (I stayed here during Katrina) and I wish everyone in the path the best possible luck.

[Tx J]

Originally Posted by HappyMdRSailor

Holy Crap....

Way understated...

207-253mph sustained winds are like being in an F4 or F5 tornado for hours on end, just unimaginable.
What the steady 200+ winds don't do, the buffeting from the 253+ gusts will finish.
I remember pics from the Jarrett, TX (Central, N of Austin) F5 tornado, it not only disappeared whole subdivisions, but peeled many road pavements away and gone.

I forgot to mention that we in South Texas (and across Mexico) will be getting some very severe conditions from the future remnants of Patricia as they track over us.
Hurricane PATRICIA

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=enh&inv=0&t=cur®ion=ea&expanddiv =hide_bar

Unisys Weather - Satellite Surface Map - Current

(By the way, those "weather.unisys.com" pages have some of the best WX anywhere, just dig around them. Been using them since the 1990's myself.)

By late Saturday into Monday we are forecast to get torrential downpours from an unholy trinity of Patricia remnants, a cyclone that is forming in the western Gulf of Mexico and expected to move inland here, and a frontal system coming down from the NW. Up to 12-15 inches of rain, and much of Central/South Texas is the world's flash flooding capitol.
Similar WX conditions in 1998 and 2002 here resulted in tremendous property damage and considerable loss of life (though I know it will not compare to what is in store for the SW Mexican coast and inland areas). It started raining yesterday, will be ramping up steadily.


That's one of the things about hurricanes/cyclones/typhoons, their "inexorability", they just keep building, for hours, even days; seems like no end.

[skipmac]

Originally Posted by HappyMdRSailor

Holy Crap....

YES!!!

This sounds like a very, very bad hurricane.

Good luck Zee. Batten down, get out extra lines and chafe protection.

If good thoughts from a lot of friends will help then you're in good shape.

[Tayana42]

Best wishes for you Zee to ride this out safely. And I hope for the best for everyone, cruisers and locals in the area. Patricia looks frightening.


S/V B'Shert

[Sailor g]

I just heard about this on the news today. This is one scary storm!

Zee and others-I hope you are safe and have no problems. Please keep us informed of how it is going, if you are able. I am sending positive thoughts your way!

[Cottontop]

Run away.

Get on the other side of the mountains.