Watch out for Patricia

[SaltyMonkey]

Originally Posted by atoll

that would be replacement "Indians",wrong continent old boy

It was a clean the closet moment...

http://www.ilivehere.co.uk/bradford-...o-i-start.html

chavs

[ryon]

I know how much you love that boat, zeehag. But this could be one of those exceptional times when love, and experience, and bravery mean nothing. This is weather at its worst, in confined quarters, with other boats close by. When there's nothing you can do to make things any better, take the safe option and get out. I'm worried for you. Buena suerte!

[Tx J]

Originally Posted by autumnbreeze27

I've been watching it for a while and was surprised there wasn't a thread on it sooner. I figured there was some other forum that more PV cruisers hung out on.

We head south from San Diego in a few days, so I've been watching the forecast on windyty. There are some wild things forecasted. Last night they were showing 2 seperate spinning storms smacking in to PV by hooking around the point and coming right in from the bay. I was going to link to them but the forecast has already changed.

I'm wondering if we should be loading aid on the boat to take there.

Depends on what your planned destination is/was. If it's anywhere near where this monster Patricia strikes, there likely won't be any 'there' there.
Taking some relief aid would be good, they will need it.
I expect there will be some effort made from CF'ers (and of course many others) later as needed.

Of course, with a little luck perhaps Patricia will weaken as it approaches landfall. I've seen a few here on the GOM do that.

[senormechanico]

Another good look at it:
http://images.intellicast.com/WxImag..._None_anim.gif

Yesterday, it was only a small blob of white only clouds at the very bottom of that image. It formed extremely quickly.

[Cheechako]

Yep, Patricia looks very ugly. It appears she will hit south of PV, So the wind waves may be more away from the beach rather than into it....initially... hopefully that will soften the blow a little.... but I wouldn't count on it! They are predicting 200 mph wind when it hits land last night.

[Rough Magic]

You must leave. The destructive force of this storm is unimaginable. This is the most powerful hurricane EVER recorded in the Americas. A Cat 5 storm, which starts at 157 mph, is 500 times more destructive than a Cat 1 at 75 mph. Patricia really should be a Cat 6 (if there were such a thing) at 200+ mph. Storm surge may be as high as 30 feet! Katrina had a surge of 31 feet in Mississippi, and it was a Cat 3 at landfall. The surge went 3 miles inland, and took everything with it. To say nothing of New Orleans, which is 60 miles from the coast.

I hope you miss the worst of it, but I'd get on shore, get to high ground, as far from the shore as I had time for.

My thoughts are with all of you in the area.

[darylat8750]

My thoughts are with you Zee and any others in the area.

Find a cave or deep crooked canyon someplace high. Nothing stands in sustained 200 mph wind.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Tx J

FYI: The US National Hurricane Center in Miami began issuing Advisories on (what became Patricia) on Tuesday, 20 Oct, at 1500UTC, some of us picked up hints of it from satellite views on Sunday.
Mexican (and other) outlets probably picked it up soon after.
Hurricane PATRICIA Advisory Archive

If you're depending on domestic USA 'news' sources, you're missing a lot; the quality has diminished greatly in the last decade or two.
If you depend on those sources that inhabit an "alternate universe" entirely, you're better off with nothing at all (particularly that one run by that Aussie and his Saudi and Chinese partners) .

Thanks for the link.

The last report at 1500 UTC today terrifyingly reads:

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 175 KTS...200 MPH...325 KM/H.

Hope it weakens dramatically soon. Good luck to everyone in its path.

[Joel E Felt]

Line heavy, and hold on . Our prayers and thoughts are with you.

[Steadman Uhlich]

Saw this quote today:

"It's a beautiful morning in my neighborhood," said Jane Gorby, a California native who has lived for 15 years in the town of La Manzanilla. She said the severity of the pending storm snuck up on residents in a region used to hurricanes, and left them scrambling for a potentially unprecedented event.

"People were complacent, blasé, cavalier, but there's never been a storm like this before," Gorby says. "It's been a (Category) 1, 2, 3, 4. Now I wake up and it's a 5."

Gorby, like most residents, planned to ride out the storm in La Manzanilla, last hit hard by Hurricane Jova in 2011. "I have tequila. I have cat food. I have things to calm my nerves," she said. "I don't know how you prepare for something like this."

Thousands flee as fiercest-ever hurricane nears Mexico

[TacomaSailor]

Patricia is a record strong storm but is quite compact.

The 1500 UDT data shows that 64 knot winds extend only 20 - 25 NM from the center. 50 knot winds only extend 50 NM from the center.

SO - unless you are within 30 - 40 miles of the landfall you will not experience any serious winds.

Ipala to the north and Manzanillo to the south are both outside the projected 50-knot wind zone.

Unfortunately, two of my favorite Gold Coast anchorages are within the hurricane force winds - Chemela and Tenacatita. Both of those anchorages are very susceptible to storm surge. The year before I was in Tenacatita a relatively minor hurricane wiped out everything on shore when the storm surge came up and over the coastline.

Damage in Mexico will be caused by the rain and possibly by storm surge but the winds will very localized.

UPDATE - new landfall has been moved 17 NM NW on the coast to Punta Roca Negra.

That means Ipala and Chemela will bear a more direct hit but Tenancatita may be spared wind damage since it will be 40 NM SE of the landfall and the 50 knot winds only extend 40 NM in that quadrant.

Manzanillo will be quite a ways from the landfall (~ 65 NM) and will probably only see TS winds.

[Michael Hubman]

Good Luck to you Zee.
I am safe in Los Angeles Area.
I was just wondering why the US news cycle took soo long to pick up this story.
Good Luck and Safety to all who are in the region.

[MarkJ]

Zee, if its going to hit you get the hell off the boat.
I have done 2 hurricanes on board and there is sweet bugger all you can do in 200knots... or 100 knots. So if its going to come close get off and go stay in a hotel for the night.
I really mean it sweetheart.

And keep up with Levi Cowan on www.tropicaltidbits.com

Mark

[Tx J]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Thanks for the link.

The last report at 1500 UTC today terrifyingly reads:

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PATRICIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 175 KTS...200 MPH...325 KM/H.

Hope it weakens dramatically soon. Good luck to everyone in its path.

SL, See my previous comments with many links given.
Patricia was actually forecast to strengthen from that.
I posted some numbers, 1800UTC fcst gave 180KT sustained, gusts 215KT. 215KT is 253MPH+, almost nothing in it's path will survive that.
If it holds or strengthens those before it will need more than algo buena suerte.

A current sat image I just looked at, that thing is insane:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...o-animated.gif


We're long downpath from it and are bracing for a major weather event Sat/Sunday from Patricia and two other WX factors here in S. TX.
NWS Corpus Christi TX
National Weather Service Text Product Display
NWS Austin/San Antonio

[bella]

Originally Posted by Michael Hubman

I follow the world news very closely. I am curious why Patricia came onto the scene with less that 24 hours advance notice.

It has been around IF you follow meteorlogical stuff.. Just the here in the US and elsewhere its a nonstarter what with whatever the MSM choses to feed to the public... same with say, the BBC or Al Jazeera.

I just pulled up google earth and it shows on GE... Coast is Colima .
Puerto Vallarta is a quite a bit to the north. looks like the aim is straight for Colima.
Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : Hurricane Patricia Hits Category 5 En Route to Mexican Coast | Weather Underground

Dr Masters blog is pretty good... recommend it to all.
Weather Channel is covering the storm. Fairly good coverage... WATCG this... great coverage in fact.. just turned it on.

For those asking "why is this not been covered more" You only have to see how the msm in the US covered the tsunami ten yrs ago, the recent earthquake in tibet.. and so on.. its not not a titilating story... as say, a former first lady being grilled by a bunch of other people... sigh... <---nonstarter for me ... weather stuff is more fun to watch...

Paryers for all in harms way.. hope minimal life is lost. Mexican EMS is pretty good, so is their Civil Protecion lets hope they got the word out and people move inland..