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TacomaSailor · 05-09-2017, 20:10

ECMWF (hurricane track predictor with best long term record) is predicting IRMA will make a direct hit on our marina (east shoreline of Charlotte Harbor) with 120 knot winds Monday morning. Other models take the storm a bit further east with winds here staying below 80-knots. The GFS model takes the storm way east of Miami/Vero Beach and we will not see more than 25-knots in that case.

BUT - more and more models are converging on Irma making a northerly track over SW and SE Florida and it feels like we are in the bullseye.

I've been working on hurricane prep on our boat since Monday noon. Tomorrow (Wednesday) I will move our boat to a much larger slip with pilings that are three feet taller and 2" bigger in diameter.

I will place eight or nine 3/4' AND 5/8" lines on EACH side of the boat to tie to five pilings and two dock cleats. I've make making new chafe guards for each line. I've been stripping everything off the exterior of the boat.

...etc I've been on the boat off and on for six hours during the last two days.

My dock has 46 38' slips and almost all of them are filled with sailboats.

I've seen only ONE ( 1 !!) other boater working on their boat and that was just to take stuff out of the interior.

Most of the boats have awnings, biminis, and dodgers up. All have their sails furled and many have dinghies hanging on davits. About half the boats have only four slack lines attached and bang into their pilings in any wind over 10-knots.

Are all those 30 or so boat owners just waiting to know what to do? Are they ignorant of the danger? Do they not care? Or - am I just being overly frantic?

I've been thru three hurricanes at anchor and a dozen or so 60+ knot wind events in Puget Sound and SW Mexico. But, I've never been thru a hurricane at dock. I kinda' thought everyone would be busily working on their boat when the pessimistic forecasts puts the hurricane on us in just four days.

Rant Over!

Stu Jackson · 05-09-2017, 20:15

There are idiots everywhere.

Good for you for you and your boat.

All the best, stay away from those other idiots.

transmitterdan · 05-09-2017, 20:35

Some people have bigger problems than their boat. Things like a land based home, family and friends can put a boat lower down the priority list. Irma is a truly big storm. I wish you and all others in her path good luck. Please heed evacuation warnings if/when they come. Take care.

maxingout · 05-09-2017, 20:46

Once when a hurricane was forecast for Fort Lauderale, we had to drive eighteen hours - all night long - to get to the marina and strip everything off the exterior of the boat. We were very tired by the time we got to Lauderdale/Dania, but we were motivated and stripped the boat in just a few hours. Anything left on deck will be destroyed or blown away in a hurricane.

Cap Erict3 · 05-09-2017, 20:57

Ready the boat, gather ur valuables and head for the hills. The wind is bad enough but the surge is the real threat.

**JPA Cate** · 05-09-2017, 20:57

TacomaSailor,

You're doing the right thing. Nothing you can do about absentee owners. If you have any spare lines, keep them for tieing up others who may damage you. Once your own boat is as safe as you can make her, offer in the marina office to help secure the other boats, first the ones closest to you, and so on. If the marina will help, so much the better.

Take care of yourself, too, even if it means evacuating. Flying debris is lethal. Make sure your cockpit drains are clear, so the boat can shed water, figure out a way to keep leaves out of the drains, so the rainwater can flow.

Good luck, too, that never hurts.

Ann

TacomaSailor · 05-09-2017, 21:19

Several of you have suggested we evacuate and my wife agrees and I almost agree.

We live (rent) in a very nice little townhome/duplex on a small lake in the Burnt Store Marina Complex. It is only 300-yards from our front door to the boat slip. The townhouse is solid - it was built in 1999 and survived Charley with no damage. However - it has no storm shutters and a lot of glass on the south side of the house. And. we live adjacent to a mangrove swap on one side and a small lake on the other side.

Our lowest level floor is at 8' above sea level. High Tide Monday 7 AM is 2' ( a really high tide here) so a 6' storm surge would be lapping at our door sills. Hurricane Charley made a direct hit on Burnt Store/Punta Gorda in September 2004. A Burnt Store boat owner told me the storm surge came up to the first step above the walkway around the Marina, which is at a 6' elevation. So, the surge was probably close to 7'.

The next problem they faced in Charley was that the strong winds that came after the eye passed here and sucked four feet of water out of the marina and their boat tipped over into a piling because it had a 6' keel and the water depth was only 3' after the storm. The water depth in our slip is 6' 5" at low tide.

They did say very few boats in Burnt Store Marina suffered a major damage even with a seven-foot storm surge and 120 knot winds.

Seawater in the mangroves just a few feet behind our lanai is currently lapping at the lawn and our back porch is less than 5' above that water.

The road leading out from our neighborhood to the main highway is below 6' most of the way. The only road leading to civilization (closest store is 9-miles) is at 10' elevation but floods frequently. Last week the road going south was closed for two days due to flooding after 15" rain fell here over three days. (Harvey overshadowed all the damage done here by what would be ordinarily front page flood news).

All good reasons to evacuate - BUT TO WHERE?

Irma is forecast to go straight up the middle of Florida and into Georgia. Other forecasts take it into the Gulf of Mexico and then re-curve it back to hit the Panhandle of Florida. Yet others take it up the Florida east coast and then into SE Georgia or South Carolina.

SO - where do we evacuate too?

The ONLY road north from our area is I-75, which is a four-lane freeway until Tampa. All the other roads out of here head east or NE and are narrow two lane farm roads. Irma is forecast to follow directly up the center of the state and most those roads will flood.

We'd have to drive at least 350 miles into South Georgia to find some assurance we are out of the dangerous part of Irma's track.

I have never thought about evacuating before and am shocked to find such limited choices.

DeepFrz · 05-09-2017, 21:29

South Dakota.

hafa · 05-09-2017, 21:30

We usually secure everything a couple of days in advance and them go back down to the marina 24 hours before predicted landfall to tie up any boats that are not properly secured. Folks here actually appreciate it...

If your home is not built like a war bunker with secured independent power and water systems, evacuation is not a bad idea (sorry, I know little about where to go in the US), but do it early, as everyone will want to leave at the last minute, congesting roads to the point where forward progress is negligible.

jimbunyard · 06-09-2017, 03:20

10' elevation is not enough for your location to be secure with a storm of this size. There are many areas within 25-50 miles from you with elevations ranging from 25' to 150'. If you can afford it and they are available, maybe you could get some temporary lodging somewhere nearby, maybe Arcadia or somewhere up the Peace River?

120 knot winds are scary enough in a well built house, but if it is well built they will usually stand up to them. Add in 10' of wind driven water and all bets are off.

Track predictions by the NHC are pretty good though, so if you feel like taking a chance, watch the storm carefully and plan accordingly.

If the predictions are even close, you are in for some serious onshore winds in the near future, you need to be very prepared.

For reference, I live 18 miles from open water (Lake Borne/Mississippi Sound) on a river where the elevation is 19', and when the eye from Katrina passed over the river started running backwards at my place. And this was a category 3...

Whatever plan you adopt, I truly hope it all works out well for you.

nicholson31 · 06-09-2017, 03:44

Just read this explanation of a Cat 5 hurricane, I consider myself fortunate to never have to deal with these storms and I hope you stay safe. This storm appears to be something beyond the norm.
When a Category 5 storm hits, you can expect "catastrophic damage," according to a National Hurricane Center backgrounder. "Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months," it says, as the winds will destroy many homes, collapsing roofs, walls, trees and power lines, causing power outages that last for weeks or months

cfodk · 06-09-2017, 04:18

Time will tell. Post pictures here....

**hpeer** · 06-09-2017, 04:27

A friend used to be an advance producer for a new program. So he would go to foreign countries ahead of the news team to hire the "fixed" and make all arrangements for the talking heads. So he was and is an adventurous and smart guy.

He used to live S of Miami. Where Andrew went through. He showed me pictures. What was left was the concrete pad and rubble, in the entire area.

Now he won't live South of Va.

thomm225 · 06-09-2017, 04:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimbunyard

10' elevation is not enough for your location to be secure with a storm of this size. There are many areas within 25-50 miles from you with elevations ranging from 25' to 150'. If you can afford it and they are available, maybe you could get some temporary lodging somewhere nearby, maybe Arcadia or somewhere up the Peace River?

That's right.

We had a 14'-18' surge in Pensacola during Cat 3/4 Ivan in 2004 and sections of the I-10 bridge were lifted off their pilings and dropped into the water along with one tractor trailer truck that tried to cross.

This is about 5 miles inland and behind a Barrier Island:

https://www.google.com/search?q=hurr...=1504697313452