Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by estarzinger

Basic track unchanged overnight. Perhaps a bit more consensus on a landfall just north of the delaware bay.

Primary models forecast for deltaville is also pretty much the same . . . WInd building starting Saturday night and into Sunday (NE going to N), peak around 2am Monday (N 30kts gusting to 45kts), then declining thru Tuesday (NW to W).

However, with some of the more northerly possible tracks, there is a possibility of decent SW winds on the 30th (Tuesday), so I would hope to have an anchorage with primary protection from N/NW but also decent protection from W/SW.


10/30:
Attachment 48849

Weather still forecast to clear off by 11/2


11/2:
Attachment 48850

And, while this is too far a way to be accurate, the next (weak) system is forecast to come thru on 11/6. SO, potential departure window between 11/2 - 11/6, and 11/3 would be my initial thought - to let the sea state over teh gulf stream settle but also get me as far out to sea as possible before the next system. But that's all very tentative given we still don't know where Sandy will come to shore.


11/6:
Attachment 48851

Several models had her making a giant circle and then setting out to sea again. The models weren't identified, but I think if it had been the European or the NA one they would have said so.

[zeehag]

i have been tracking this one since it was headed west before formation, in the western caribean. there was not one predicted loop to sea in the models i read. nor was that possibility ever mentioned in storm 2k, who are true meteorologists...
here is her path---
Hurricane SANDY

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by zeehag

i have been tracking this one since it was headed west before formation, in the western caribean. there was not one predicted loop to sea in the models i read. nor was that possibility ever mentioned in storm 2k, who are true meteorologists...
here is her path---
Hurricane SANDY

There are now some true meterologists who are predicting that the storm MIGHT loop back out to sea after moving on land. I never saw anyone say it before now too.

The 2k people are good but I listen to all the credible people. We have someone here planning to sail soon and I think it was worth my time to mention that possibility. Then they can stay alert for it.

[estarzinger]

Models now in good agreement. With landfall above the deleware, and winds affecting from Long Island to the Ches Bay.



Landfall 10/29:


Peak winds in the Cheas Bay are forecast for Monday. For the North bay (galesville area) the peak winds are: "Mon..N winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts to 60 kt", and further South in the bay (deltaville area) the peak is for: Mon..NW winds 35 to 40 kt with gusts to around 50 kt.

For Block island the peak is forecast for Monday night: Mon night..E winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 65 kt, and for Southport. CT (halfway down long island): Mon night..E winds 40 to 50 kt with gusts up to 65 kt.

Then it takes a 'Great tour'.

First going west (very unusual) inland and starts to weaken. This will (on 10/30) swing the winds in the Ches around to the SW:



Then (10/31) it goes North (to the great lakes):



By 11/2 it starts coming back east along the lakes as a weak low - creating the start of very nice westerly passages winds.



And a high pressure starts to fill in on 11/4:

[Hud3]

Sandy's wind field is HUGE, and the storm surge is going to be formidable, since it comes at time of lunar highs and the wind and seas will have been developed for a long time period. Route 12, which connects the Outer Banks of North Carolina to the mainland was overrun by the ocean this morning and is now closed. Same for Route 1 along the shore in Delaware.

Thanks for posting the graphics, Evans.

[The_Mike]

Outside Philly here, and we're just starting to get heavy rain. Forecast for 6"+ over the next two days. Winds are supposed to gust to 45ish.

Amazingly, the Cooper River where I sail is more than three feet LOWER than I've ever seen it before. Went sailing yesterday and actually ran hard aground in the center of the river with my 27" daggerboard. The current was rushing out at least three knots. Going downwind (and down current) was stupidly fast.

I was half expecting to see broken boats uncovered by the falling tide. Alas, no. But it was really interesting to see where the truly deep portions of the river were.

[mbianka]

Spent the day on the boat where we had some pretty strong pressure gradient winds gusting into the 30 knot range:
THE BIANKA LOG BLOG: HURRICANE SANDY: The Good News and the Bad News
Was glad to see the boat staying put even during the high tide cycle. Had to get off for a dentist appointment not sure if I will be able to get back on before the big Sandy winds hit us tomorrow. Including talk of tornados. Just hope the boat is where I left it when I see it again or at least still floating.