Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south

[Kettlewell]

For anyone down in the Bahamas, look out! They are predicting a big storm surge in the Exumas and then moving north with the storm.

[estarzinger]

Latest spaghetti chart - reaching agreement of probable coastal hit somewhere, but no agreement of where yet:



10/29 CPA to Ches Bay:



Remains windy until 11/4, when high now forecast to fill in:

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by estarzinger

Its nearing the start of the annual east coast migration south, and the weather situation is complex.

We have Sandy coming up the Atlantic coast. Its track is uncertain right now - with some models saying it will go out to Bermuda and others saying it will hit long island. The uncertainty reminds me a bit of TS Sean last year. In any case it will drve 30kt winds during at least the 10/27 to 10/31 period along the coast.

Here is the latest gfs model (one of the models forecasting it will go out to Bermuda) for 10/30: Attachment 48701

Then, after Sandy (which is a long way away with limited forecast accuracy), most of the models have another low coming off the mainland. Here is the GFS for 11/1: Attachment 48702

So, it will be worthwhile keeping a close eye on the weather. The range of outcomes is wider than normal.

What they are saying here now is that it will very likely turn into Long Island, possibly joining up with another storm system. The famous "Perfect Storm" of 1991 was three storms combining. This is one to keep your eye on, and no time to be sailing off the eastern coast of the US.

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by Don Lucas

well far as I'm concerned I'm hoping it is just their normal forecast fear moguling to get us all worked up

Boy that's not what it sounded like tonight. I hate it when they do that (in MIssouri they did it over snow, but it was the same game). But I think this is one for boaters to take seriously.

[stevensuf]

Its this Global Cooling we have to blame, Maunder minimum, blah blah, 3 weeks of south westerlies from the canaries to Gibraltar, feels like hotel california!

[VirtualVagabond]

Originally Posted by atoll

i hope vic has got his solar panels well fixed down.....

The panels on the doghouse are through bolted alu channel with 5200, and the panels bolted to the channel. No rivets.
The davit panel is on a rod with collars at the back and can tilt. Good strong stuff.
But I always said we'd keep well clear of cyclone belts. We managed to get the jump on Ernesto out of the Caymans, and we got away from the next one, forget the name, but it shook up Key West a bit
I guess we haven't really got off to a good start.
Hopefully Sandy will head out to Bermuda, although that is were we're headed from here, around mid to late November

Vic

[atoll]

Originally Posted by VirtualVagabond

The panels on the doghouse are through bolted alu channel with 5200, and the panels bolted to the channel. No rivets.
The davit panel is on a rod with collars at the back and can tilt. Good strong stuff.
But I always said we'd keep well clear of cyclone belts. We managed to get the jump on Ernesto out of the Caymans, and we got away from the next one, forget the name, but it shook up Key West a bit
I guess we haven't really got off to a good start.
Hopefully Sandy will head out to Bermuda, although that is were we're headed from here, around mid to late November

Vic

no worries sounds like you have a lucky boat,though with the current trend mid nov may still be too early to do the bermuda route safely without getting hammered.

[estarzinger]

For the next 72 hours there is now excellent agreement between the models: Northward for the next 24 hrs and then slow down and turn N/NW during 24-36hrs, and then weaken and accelerate a bit to the NE.

After that there is still significant model disagreement. One set of major models takes the center NW over the Delmarva Peninsula (and this includes the ECMWF model which has been both historically reliable and consistent the past 2 days), while the GFS keeps Sandy moving NE away from the US and Other models take it ashore inbetween.

Spaggitii chart:


10/29 Delmarva Peninsula hit picture:


10/29 Northern hit picture:

[Rakuflames]

Originally Posted by estarzinger

For the next 72 hours there is now excellent agreement between the models: Northward for the next 24 hrs and then slow down and turn N/NW during 24-36hrs, and then weaken and accelerate a bit to the NE.

After that there is still significant model disagreement. One set of major models takes the center NW over the Delmarva Peninsula (and this includes the ECMWF model which has been both historically reliable and consistent the past 2 days), while the GFS keeps Sandy moving NE away from the US and Other models take it ashore inbetween.

Spaggitii chart:
Attachment 48769

10/29 Delmarva Peninsula hit picture:
Attachment 48768

10/29 Northern hit picture:
Attachment 48767

A big problem is that it may meet up with a strong low moving eastward across the country, making a larger, stronger storm.

[estarzinger]

Originally Posted by Rakuflames

A big problem is that it may meet up with a strong low moving eastward across the country, making a larger, stronger storm.

That effect is incorporated in these models - it's why the storm is forecast to recurve to the west. The other interaction effect (beyond recurving) is to make the storm area bigger, but it is in fact not forecast (by most models) to make it absolutely stronger than it is - only to prevent the normal decay in intensity that occurs as these storms get out of the tropics.

Here is a chart showing the forecast storm intensity in a couple models:

[chuckr]

the eruo model has for a while predicted an east coast event - the gfs has just started so - this year the eruo model seems to be doing a better job -
for those you use him chris parker has for a while been predicting a big storm - he called this one way before noaa and has been warning folks

just our opinion
chuck patty and svsoulmates
in trini for hurricane season

[estarzinger]

[quote name='MoeAlfa' timestamp='1351178141' post='3912896']
Evans, where are you these days? I promise not to bother you, but might gawk at the boat from a distance.
[/quote]

I am hauled out at Hartge's - going to have the boat sand blasted - perhaps the hurricane will do it for free I am happy to be 'bothered', beats the sanding and painting I have been doing.

The models are now coming closer together on Sandy's hit point - somewhere between Delaware and cape cod.



The storm will probably be big enough that in any case, it will probably bring 50kt E to NE winds across the lower bay, and 30kts N to NE across the upper bay on 10/29-10/31

At 'northern hit model' (GFS) on 10/31:



And a 'southern hit model' (nogaps) on 10/29:




Possible departure window sometime after 11/2. It will probably be windy thru then.

[Richard5]

Originally Posted by mbuckely

Caribbean1500/ARC Bahamas is scheduled to depart Hampton VA 11/4. Irish Rover will be participating on the Green Turtle Cay leg. I suspect there will be a lot of anxious eyes on this developing forecast.

Is she rigged fore and aft with 27 masts?

[estarzinger]

sorry, a bit dyslexic in my above, as shown by the wind arrows, the winds will be W/NW/N NOT E/NE/N

[Blue Stocking]

[QUOI.
Hopefully Sandy will head out to Bermuda, although that is were we're headed from here, around mid to late November

Vic[/QUOTE]

Gee, thanks, we really need a Sandy.
Everyone remember last Oct/Nov in this area?
7 boats abandoned and 4 lives lost IIRC.