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-   -   Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south (https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums/f19/interesting-and-possibly-difficult-weather-for-trip-south-91607.html)

estarzinger 24-10-2012 05:33

Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
2 Attachment(s)
Its nearing the start of the annual east coast migration south, and the weather situation is complex.

We have Sandy coming up the Atlantic coast. Its track is uncertain right now - with some models saying it will go out to Bermuda and others saying it will hit long island. The uncertainty reminds me a bit of TS Sean last year. In any case it will drve 30kt winds during at least the 10/27 to 10/31 period along the coast.

Here is the latest gfs model (one of the models forecasting it will go out to Bermuda) for 10/30: Attachment 48701

Then, after Sandy (which is a long way away with limited forecast accuracy), most of the models have another low coming off the mainland. Here is the GFS for 11/1: Attachment 48702

So, it will be worthwhile keeping a close eye on the weather. The range of outcomes is wider than normal.

sailorboy1 24-10-2012 05:38

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
well far as I'm concerned I'm hoping it is just their normal forecast fear moguling to get us all worked up

atoll 24-10-2012 05:43

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
+1:thumb: i see the picton castle has delayed her departure from lunenberg due to weather concerns......not good if running on a schedule with paying passengers

https://www.facebook.com/picton.castle?fref=ts

mbuckely 24-10-2012 12:20

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
Caribbean1500/ARC Bahamas is scheduled to depart Hampton VA 11/4. Irish Rover will be participating on the Green Turtle Cay leg. I suspect there will be a lot of anxious eyes on this developing forecast.https://www.cruisersforum.com/images/icons2/icosm13.gif

Hannah on 'Rita T' 24-10-2012 12:45

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
The Salty Dawg is due to leave Hampton on the 4th as well. Both delayed untilt he 10th and 11th last year, may be the same this year.

sailorboy1 24-10-2012 12:56

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
schedules + cruisers = problems!

Kettlewell 24-10-2012 13:02

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
East Coasters need to keep an eye on this one. Some predictions have the eye coming ashore around New Jersey.

belizesailor 24-10-2012 13:29

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
Yes, I was just looking at 500MB charts versus H Sandy's forecast route. Great example of the dramatic effect upper level winds/features can have on steering surface weather.

estarzinger 24-10-2012 13:36

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
4 Attachment(s)
Latest GFS model run:

10/29 closer CPA to the Ches Bay:

Attachment 48730

10/31 recurve and hit the coast along Maine/Canadian border

Attachment 48731

That keeps it windy along the coast thru 11/2

Attachment 48732

11/5 Then small low forecast to move off the coast - but this is way out in forecast accuracy and not to be too worried about yet.

Attachment 48733

motion30 24-10-2012 13:43

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
best to get south of the chesapeake now and stay in the ICW

atoll 24-10-2012 13:46

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
with the azores high being replaced by the azores low!!!!! i can't see a significant change untill seawater temps drop mid atlantic will probably still be getting hurricanes in dec- january with the current weather model!

madagasgar had its first cyclone 2weeks ago,a full 2 months before cyclone season is due to start!

atoll 24-10-2012 14:10

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
seems like greenland is getting traditional azores weather at the moment!!!!

sailing europe atlantic (north) surface pressure (gfs) + 0 utc loop

estarzinger 24-10-2012 14:20

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
1 Attachment(s)
SANDY Spaghetti Models - still a few showing it going out to sea, but many of the models now showing east coast hits at various locations north of the Ches Bay (the most forecast southern track going right up the bay).

Attachment 48734

zeehag 24-10-2012 14:20

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
we only die to schedules--do not ever sail to a schedule. bad stuff happens. be safe and leave when weather clears. or choose a different route--back east, you guys have icw and you have ocean. choose the least dangerous to begin and change after weather departs. have fun and be safe.

atoll 24-10-2012 14:25

Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
 
Quote:

Originally Posted by zeehag (Post 1067208)
we only die to schedules--do not ever sail to a schedule. bad stuff happens. be safe and leave when weather clears. or choose a different route--back east, you guys have icw and you have ocean. choose the least dangerous to begin and change after weather departs. have fun and be safe.

i hope vic has got his solar panels well fixed down.....


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