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24-10-2012, 05:33
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#1
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,033
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Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
Its nearing the start of the annual east coast migration south, and the weather situation is complex.
We have Sandy coming up the Atlantic coast. Its track is uncertain right now - with some models saying it will go out to Bermuda and others saying it will hit long island. The uncertainty reminds me a bit of TS Sean last year. In any case it will drve 30kt winds during at least the 10/27 to 10/31 period along the coast.
Here is the latest gfs model (one of the models forecasting it will go out to Bermuda) for 10/30:
Then, after Sandy (which is a long way away with limited forecast accuracy), most of the models have another low coming off the mainland. Here is the GFS for 11/1:
So, it will be worthwhile keeping a close eye on the weather. The range of outcomes is wider than normal.
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24-10-2012, 05:38
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#2
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CLOD
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: being planted in Jacksonville Fl
Boat: none
Posts: 20,364
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
well far as I'm concerned I'm hoping it is just their normal forecast fear moguling to get us all worked up
__________________
Don't ask a bunch of unknown forum people if it is OK to do something on YOUR boat. It is your boat, do what you want!
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24-10-2012, 05:43
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#3
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: gettin naughty on the beach in cornwall
Boat: 63 custom alloy sloop,macwester26,prout snowgoose 37 elite catamaran!
Posts: 10,594
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
+1 i see the picton castle has delayed her departure from lunenberg due to weather concerns......not good if running on a schedule with paying passengers
https://www.facebook.com/picton.castle?fref=ts
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24-10-2012, 12:20
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#4
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2012
Boat: Fountaine Pajot Lipari 41
Posts: 94
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
Caribbean1500/ARC Bahamas is scheduled to depart Hampton VA 11/4. Irish Rover will be participating on the Green Turtle Cay leg. I suspect there will be a lot of anxious eyes on this developing forecast.
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24-10-2012, 12:45
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 741
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
The Salty Dawg is due to leave Hampton on the 4th as well. Both delayed untilt he 10th and 11th last year, may be the same this year.
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24-10-2012, 12:56
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#6
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CLOD
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: being planted in Jacksonville Fl
Boat: none
Posts: 20,364
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
schedules + cruisers = problems!
__________________
Don't ask a bunch of unknown forum people if it is OK to do something on YOUR boat. It is your boat, do what you want!
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24-10-2012, 13:02
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Massachusetts
Boat: Finnsailer 38
Posts: 5,132
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
East Coasters need to keep an eye on this one. Some predictions have the eye coming ashore around New Jersey.
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24-10-2012, 13:29
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: W Carib
Boat: Wildcat 35, Hobie 33
Posts: 13,480
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
Yes, I was just looking at 500MB charts versus H Sandy's forecast route. Great example of the dramatic effect upper level winds/features can have on steering surface weather.
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24-10-2012, 13:36
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#9
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,033
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
Latest GFS model run:
10/29 closer CPA to the Ches Bay:
10/31 recurve and hit the coast along Maine/Canadian border
That keeps it windy along the coast thru 11/2
11/5 Then small low forecast to move off the coast - but this is way out in forecast accuracy and not to be too worried about yet.
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24-10-2012, 13:43
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 2,409
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
best to get south of the chesapeake now and stay in the ICW
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24-10-2012, 13:46
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#11
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: gettin naughty on the beach in cornwall
Boat: 63 custom alloy sloop,macwester26,prout snowgoose 37 elite catamaran!
Posts: 10,594
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
with the azores high being replaced by the azores low!!!!! i can't see a significant change untill seawater temps drop mid atlantic will probably still be getting hurricanes in dec- january with the current weather model!
madagasgar had its first cyclone 2weeks ago,a full 2 months before cyclone season is due to start!
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24-10-2012, 14:10
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#12
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: gettin naughty on the beach in cornwall
Boat: 63 custom alloy sloop,macwester26,prout snowgoose 37 elite catamaran!
Posts: 10,594
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
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24-10-2012, 14:20
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#13
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 4,033
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
SANDY Spaghetti Models - still a few showing it going out to sea, but many of the models now showing east coast hits at various locations north of the Ches Bay (the most forecast southern track going right up the bay).
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24-10-2012, 14:20
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#14
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cat herder, extreme blacksheep
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: furycame alley , tropics, mexico for now
Boat: 1976 FORMOSA yankee clipper 41
Posts: 18,967
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
we only die to schedules--do not ever sail to a schedule. bad stuff happens. be safe and leave when weather clears. or choose a different route--back east, you guys have icw and you have ocean. choose the least dangerous to begin and change after weather departs. have fun and be safe.
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24-10-2012, 14:25
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#15
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Senior Cruiser
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: gettin naughty on the beach in cornwall
Boat: 63 custom alloy sloop,macwester26,prout snowgoose 37 elite catamaran!
Posts: 10,594
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Re: Interesting and possibly difficult weather for trip south
Quote:
Originally Posted by zeehag
we only die to schedules--do not ever sail to a schedule. bad stuff happens. be safe and leave when weather clears. or choose a different route--back east, you guys have icw and you have ocean. choose the least dangerous to begin and change after weather departs. have fun and be safe.
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i hope vic has got his solar panels well fixed down.....
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