Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[conachair]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

You are so convinced that Sweden is wrong

You could ask the prime minister of Sweden. He doesn't think the measures taken were enough.

Swedish PM admits virus measures 'not good enough'

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-...20000/12142860

[tp12]

Originally Posted by conachair

You could ask the prime minister of Sweden. He doesn't think the measures taken were enough.



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-...20000/12142860

Also 2,300 Swedish doctors, scientists and academics who have petitioned the Swedish Government to change its strategy:

Originally Posted by Business Insider Article

Officials in the country have defended the strategy, but some experts fear it could backfire, including Cecilia Soderberg-Naucler, an immunologist at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm.

“We are scientists. We don’t trust authorities. We trust data. And we don’t see the data that supports that we should go for this strategy as the only country in the world,” Soderberg-Naucler told Reuters. “And when you get into an overload in the healthcare system, you don’t have a choice to close down. You will have to close down, and it would have been better to do that earlier so we can keep this in a controlled situation.”

Soderberg-Naucler was one of the more than 2,300 Swedish researchers who demanded stricter regulations in an open letter late last month, two days after the United Kingdom imposed a nationwide lockdown.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/c...20-4?r=US&IR=T

And also:

Originally Posted by Yahoo News Article

Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s chief epidemiologist overseeing the government’s response to COVID-19 has said the government should allow the virus to spread slowly through the population, an approach initially employed by the United Kingdom and the Netherlands before both countries rapidly changed strategy amid mounting evidence that this approach would still overburden health care systems. Tegnell told Swedish TV on April 5 that COVID-19 could be stopped by “herd immunity or a combination of immunity and vaccination.” (A vaccine for COVID-19 is likely at least 14 months away.)
But many experts throughout Sweden say the current strategy is dangerous.

“Herd immunity doesn’t make sense because we don’t know whether or not you can become immune,” says Nele Brusselaers, an associate professor of clinical epidemiology. She added, “this is a virus that can kill anybody.”

“We think there is no scientific evidence for their strategy,” says Cecilia Söderberg-Nauclér, an expert in microbial pathogenesis who signed the letter. She says the government has been reluctant to share its data with scientists, leading her to believe that the government’s strategy is “not based on evidence.”

Carina King, an infectious diseases epidemiologist, agrees that the government’s lack of transparency makes it “really hard to give proper scientific thoughts on their approach because they haven’t released their science.” She added that the government has made no concrete efforts to test, contact trace and quarantine—as South Korea did—which is standard protocol to stop localized spread at the beginning of an outbreak.
Nevertheless, she says Sweden could be a rare case where a nationwide lockdown may not be necessary. “Sweden is unique,” she says. “It doesn’t have many intergenerational households. It is a country where you could have a mixed approach.”

Though interpersonal distance is valued in Swedish culture and 40% of Swedish households are single-person households without children, other experts say that COVID-19 can still spread rapidly and widely in these conditions. Sweden has the second lowest number of critical care beds in Europe after Portugal, with only 5 beds for every 100,000 inhabitants. The healthcare system would likely be unable to handle a severe COVID-19 outbreak.

Currently, experts say the Swedish government is not following the World Health Organization’s (WHO) guidelines, which advise countries with COVID-19 outbreaks to contact trace where possible and to adopt strict self-isolation measures. “I’m surprised and frustrated that they still have not taken any action or listened to the advice of organizations like WHO,” says Brusselaers. “They disregard any prediction model that has been published by experts in the field and they don’t even give a defense.”

https://news.yahoo.com/swedens-relax...143358386.html

[mglonnro]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Finland is locked down and the province in which Helsinki is located has been closed -- an extraordinary measure. Nevertheless, my Finnish friends are launching their boats and hoping there will be sailing in the summer. At the moment, guidance seems to indicated that sailing will be allowed.

We've been sailing out of Turku for a couple of weeks. It's cold but nice

With regard to the current lockdown of Finland, the restrictions entering and leaving Finland do not apply to Finnish citizens (although the media isn't really reporting this). This is due to our constitution allowing anyone to leave the country and Finnish citizens to enter without restrictions.

The residence permit actually might not help, since the constitution explicitly mentions only citizens, without including the broader category of people with residence permits. The status of non-Finnish EU citizens is a bit unclear.

Anyway, I think the borders will open up during or before summer.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by conachair

You could ask the prime minister of Sweden. He doesn't think the measures taken were enough.



https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-...20000/12142860

Originally Posted by tp12

Also 2,300 Swedish doctors, scientists and academics who have petitioned the Swedish Government to change its strategy:



https://www.businessinsider.com.au/c...20-4?r=US&IR=T

And also:



https://news.yahoo.com/swedens-relax...143358386.html

There is controversy in Sweden as there is in most countries. I guess we don't need to get into the history of controversy between heads of state in the U.S. and the U.K. and their health authorities. Since no one really knows how all this is going to develop, it is natural that there are a variety of approaches, and vigorous discussion about which ones are right.



Nevertheless, the policies in Sweden remain in place so far and enjoy the support of the majority of people. And the numbers continue to look decent. Social distancing rules can be tightened or relaxed from time to time if it seems appropriate. Denmark, where I am now, with similar numbers to Sweden, starts relaxing the already quite relaxed rules, this week. Finland is supposed to start doing the same. None of these countries ever had stay-at-home orders. If Sweden gets a bump in their numbers, they might impose stricter measures, but I wouldn't hold my breath.


Incidentally in today's Helsinki Times is a link to a really good graphic from Our World in Data showing the different infection curves in different countries: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/c...81&country=FIN. The best such thing I've seen. You can see very clearly which countries are doing well and which ones are having it tough.

The Nordic countries including Sweden are all quite similar to each other, in the shape of the curve, and better than most other European countries. You can see -- thank God -- how the curves are turning down almost everywhere, with notable exceptions of the U.S. and Japan. You can see how they turned down suddenly in China and S. Korea. Very interesting.


This just in -- Norway will join Denmark in reopening schools starting next week. Like the other Nordic countries, Norway never had any stay-at-home order, never closed shops, and never closed "non-essential businesses" (Finland however did the last thing). The Norwegians do have an order prohibiting them from visiting their country houses.


So from next week, the policies in all the Nordic countries, including Sweden, will be quite similar to one another and continue to be much looser than the rest of Europe. The only thing open in Sweden -- so far -- which is not open in other Nordic countries is restaurants.

[Quebramar]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

You can see -- thank God -- how the curves are turning down almost everywhere, with notable exceptions of the U.S. and Japan. You can see how they turned down suddenly in China and S. Korea.

Thanks Dock for this new source.

Couple of notes on a very good graph conceptually:
- log scale is bound to show curbing trends by definition, intellectually dishonest per se yet potentially encouraging to the lay populations
- diversity in data gathering systems, timeliness, definition of what an infected person is, testing procedures and capacities, as well as transparency completely flaw data comparisons
- as someone mentioned before, topography, population density and culture make it for a very different speed (eg someone mentioned Switzerland as a seemingly exception to the Nordics pattern, this is largely due to Ticino where there is virtually no border to Northern Italy as well as Geneva, dense and very international).

Personally I am very interested to see how next «*flu season*» will look like. Will immunity exist? Will we see yet another wave and confinement etc etc ?
If we humans (rightfully called by ancient Greeks politikon dzauon, political animals) learn as little in this crisis as we did 10 years back, I guess we’ll see more liveaboards in the future [emoji6]. I am rather optimistic at the micro level (individual, small communities) that things may change for the better even with very small steps, but quite pessimistic at a macro level (large co’s, politicians). Greed and ego will continue ruling the few powerful and impact the silent majority.

Back to the topic: Northern Europe will definitely be a safer playground for sailors than say Mediterranean. Time to order new foul weather gear!

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Quebramar

Thanks Dock for this new source.

Couple of notes on a very good graph conceptually:

Very interesting comments! I have some questions.

Originally Posted by Quebramar

- log scale is bound to show curbing trends by definition, intellectually dishonest per se yet potentially encouraging to the lay populations

I am puzzled why you would say this. Why dishonest? I guess a log scale might give a naive person an impression that the dynamic everywhere is less vigorous than it is, but the point is COMPARISON, and for that, this is great, don't you agree? This is an exponential phenomenon and to compare different countries you need coherent differences in shape.

Originally Posted by Quebramar

- diversity in data gathering systems, timeliness, definition of what an infected person is, testing procedures and capacities, as well as transparency completely flaw data comparisons

This is definitely true and I think everyone is aware of that. Don't forget VOLUME of testing, which influences the number of reported cases. But again if we want to compare the dynamic of development of the pandemic in different countries, it's still useful, as there will be generally apples to apples within each country's dataset. Also I think that we can generally assume that more advanced and civilized countries will have greater transparency and less chance of underreporting. In Russia, for example, they were classifying a lot of COVID cases simply as pneumonia, but that doesn't happen in Northern Europe.

Originally Posted by Quebramar

- as someone mentioned before, topography, population density and culture make it for a very different speed (eg someone mentioned Switzerland as a seemingly exception to the Nordics pattern, this is largely due to Ticino where there is virtually no border to Northern Italy as well as Geneva, dense and very international).

Yes.

Originally Posted by Quebramar

Personally I am very interested to see how next «*flu season*» will look like. Will immunity exist? Will we see yet another wave and confinement etc etc ?
If we humans (rightfully called by ancient Greeks politikon dzauon, political animals) learn as little in this crisis as we did 10 years back, I guess we’ll see more liveaboards in the future [emoji6]. I am rather optimistic at the micro level (individual, small communities) that things may change for the better even with very small steps, but quite pessimistic at a macro level (large co’s, politicians). Greed and ego will continue ruling the few powerful and impact the silent majority.

I think everyone is waiting to see this. But I believe the consensus view is that there will be at least 3 waves of this before we have even the first chance of getting it under control -- this will go on at least until the end of 2021. This will certainly not be the last set of social distancing measures. I think the really big question is whether there will be enough immunity the next time around that we don't need draconian lockdowns, because the world economy may not survive another round of them, if it has indeed survived even this one (we don't know yet).


I think we may also see that those countries who are lucky with demographics, health system, climate, whatever, such that they don't have to lock down so hard, will reap enormous economic advantages compared to less lucky countries.


In Finland, despite the low number of cases and very few deaths, and light lockdown with no stay at home order, which will come off in a few weeks, the Ministry of Finance has just come out with a projection that GDP will shrink by 6% this year -- deepest recession in 100 years. Yikes. God help the Italians and Spanish.

Originally Posted by Quebramar

Back to the topic: Northern Europe will definitely be a safer playground for sailors than say Mediterranean. Time to order new foul weather gear!

Yes, I think the picture is becoming more clear by the day -- looks more and more like the Northern Baltic, and perhaps the entire Baltic, will be fully open for cruising by the middle of May or so. Here's hoping!

[CatNewBee]

Maybe wishfull thinking...
But the Med will open soon, the lockdown worked and businesses are preparing for the season....

I think, the nordic will face his lockdown sooner or later too.

[Palarran]

Originally Posted by ColinIOM

I’m amazed at this, as stated already, there is no such thing as “ borders” re this virus, the rules which are similar everywhere as far as I can see, is “ NO UNNECESSARY TRAVEL” It is selfish and ignorant to plan any such trip, attempting to “ Bend” the rules. I think some of you should look at Italia and rethink your plans.
To go cruising, you need shops, marinas (even if its just for fuel and water) and thats even with your boat in the water, if its not, you need craneage etc,.etc.,

You should “DO THE RIGHT THING” and stay home, the more people that do, the quicker it will be over fore everyone.


Our boat is currently wintering on the German island of Fehmarn. Germany has closed most of its Baltic coast so that scuppers our plan to sail up the East Cost of Sweden this year and winter near Stockholm.
Our plans are on total hold until hopefully later this summer or maybe next year taking the year out and wait and see where we are, hopefully a vaccine will emerge sooner than later.

Personally I'm getting burned out with the "Stay at Home" advice. It's impractical and simply is delaying the inevitable. We will need to get back to work so a better solution is mandatory face masks and daily temperature checks, massive amounts of antibacterial hand soap, and distancing. Enforce this rigidly and apply heavy fines for failure to follow.

There simply is no chance the virus is going to be eliminated for over a year so we might as well begin to set the new norms.

[Viking Sailor]

I have taken the liberty to add the mortality rate (dead/cases) to Dockhead's table. Also, added the USA for reference.

Country               Dead*  Cases*  Mortality
----------------------------------------------
Spain                  342    3359    10.18%
Italy                  312    2441    12.58%
Belgium                260    2301    11.30%
France                 202    1913    10.56%
Netherlands            147    1348    10.90%
UK                     132    1086    12.15%
Switzerland            116    2937     3.95%
Luxembourg              86    5149     1.67%
Sweden                  86     959     8.97%
USA                     67    1682     3.96%
Ireland                 58    1638     3.54%
Portugal                48    1517     3.16%
Denmark                 43    1005     4.28%
Germany                 32    1434     2.23%
Norway                  21    1162     1.80%
Finland                  9     500     1.80%

                     * = per-million

[Quebramar]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Very interesting comments! I have some questions.

I am puzzled why you would say this. Why dishonest? I guess a log scale might give a naive person an impression that the dynamic everywhere is less vigorous than it is, but the point is COMPARISON, and for that, this is great, don't you agree? This is an exponential phenomenon and to compare different countries you need coherent differences in shape.

Indeed, the impression to naive people is that things start to settle and «*the curve starts flattening*» which is what everyone is told to be the short term goal. How much of the population is «*naive*»? 80%? 90%? more? At times of infographics and limited time for reading and, worse, for reflecting, over-simplification is IMO not being honest.

I agree that it is the comparison that matters, yet on a log scale the variances get to disappear as the trends go up the graph. Thus whilst still ok at the beginning of the epidemic, it now tends to say that many parts of the world «*perform*» in a similar way, but is this really so?

I tend to prefer the linear graph as it not only shows better whether the inflection is reached and also better compares growth rates. A glimpse at such graph is more instructive than at a log-one I would say.

[conachair]

Some maths........

https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg
https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc

[mglonnro]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

In Finland, despite the low number of cases and very few deaths, and light lockdown with no stay at home order, which will come off in a few weeks, the Ministry of Finance has just come out with a projection that GDP will shrink by 6% this year -- deepest recession in 100 years. Yikes. God help the Italians and Spanish.

While there is no order to stay at home, the official (and societal) plea to do so is quite strong (as I assume you know). Stronger than in Sweden.

In many many industries, it's far from business as usual. This, combined with the fact that our economy is quite dependent on cross-border/international business, will surely affect the GDP a lot.

Four more weeks until schools are supposed to open again

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by mglonnro

While there is no order to stay at home, the official (and societal) plea to do so is quite strong (as I assume you know). Stronger than in Sweden.

In many many industries, it's far from business as usual. This, combined with the fact that our economy is quite dependent on cross-border/international business, will surely affect the GDP a lot.

Four more weeks until schools are supposed to open again

Oh, yes, I know and painfully, with business in Finland. It's predicted to be the worst recession in 100 years.


But I think societal plea is pretty strong in Sweden, too. There are photos of people in restaurants, but this is not really the norm -- most people in Sweden are working from home, the streets are strikingly empty, the Swedish economy is also suffering a hard hit.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by conachair

Some maths........

https://youtu.be/Kas0tIxDvrg
https://youtu.be/54XLXg4fYsc

The first video is really excellent . I think most of us are reasonably familiar with the concept of exponents, but it's always useful to have these refreshers.


The video emphasizes the application of these principles to epidemics via the "Growth Factor" -- the rate of increase of daily new cases, emphasizing the enormous difference between 15%, which at the time the video was made was the overall world rate excluding China, and 5%, which makes a 400 000x difference in total cases over some period of time.


It is very important to note that the world Growth Factor has dramatically fallen in the last couple of weeks.



The World during April so far looks like this:



Growth factor average 6.4%, and you can see a definite downward trend, with all the last 5 days below 6%. This is very good compared to what the situation looked like when the video was made. Although it must be said that the world is not very near the Inflection Point yet, the point where the number of new cases remains stable. We seem to be getting there, however, especially when you remember that the Growth Factor was 15%, not long ago, which is an explosive acceleration of new cases.

Sweden looks like this:



Much smaller sample, so the data jumps around more, but this is clearly somewhere around the Inflection Point with something roughly like a static number of new cases.



Average Growth Factor during April in Sweden is -0.001%. The last four days had 2064 cases vs. the first four days with 2008. The last five days had 2790 new cases vs 1696 new cases during the first five days. If this is not the Inflection Point already, then it appears to be very close.



The average number of new cases during April so far in Sweden is 504. That is a rate of 15,000 per month, so in two months at that rate there would be 30,000 new cases for a total of less than 40,000 cumulative cases or 4,000 per million. Spain has already had about that number of cases per million, and had them over a much shorter period of time. That is unlikely, however, because if the number of daily new cases is roughly stable now, then it must start falling pretty soon.

[mglonnro]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Oh, yes, I know and painfully, with business in Finland. It's predicted to be the worst recession in 100 years.

But I think societal plea is pretty strong in Sweden, too. There are photos of people in restaurants, but this is not really the norm -- most people in Sweden are working from home, the streets are strikingly empty, the Swedish economy is also suffering a hard hit.

Ok!

The first "opening up" over here is set to happen on Sunday, when it's likely that they will lift the travel ban to/from Uusimaa. This will probably mean more boats on the water as well.