Cruisers Forum
 


 
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 17-04-2020, 03:25   #151
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 33,764
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by TeddyDiver View Post
Just a mathematical approach to stats.. And a good reason to TEST a lot more to find out if we have handled this epidemic totally wrong.
If this is really the case the only reasonable approach would be to protect and isolate the risk groups totally and let the desease go over the rest of the population as fast as possible..

The Finnish Ministry of Health today released the result of an antibody study carried out on a large quantity of blood samples which were in the health system anyway, unrelated to suspected COVID cases. The results are staggering -- something like 100x number of positives you would expect from the official cases per million.


They caution that the same isn't big enough or random enough to prove anything conclusively, but it EXACTLY lines up with a study done in Denmark recently on blood donor blood.


Looks more and more like the linked article could be right and the world might have just totally screwed the pooch with our lockdowns.


If we are undercounting by 50x or whatever, then we totally misunderstand how the disease spreads, how infectious it is, and the fatality rate. It means the fatality rate is similar to ordinary flu.
__________________
"You sea! I resign myself to you also . . . . I guess what you mean,
I behold from the beach your crooked inviting fingers,
I believe you refuse to go back without feeling of me;
We must have a turn together . . . . I undress . . . . hurry me out of sight of the land,
Cushion me soft . . . . rock me in billowy drowse,
Dash me with amorous wet . . . . I can repay you."
Walt Whitman
Dockhead is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 05:36   #152
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 49,128
Images: 241
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Excerpted from “When would COVID19 be over from a data science perspective and what’s the fatality rate?”https://medium.com/@ali_razavian/cov...e-95bd4e84843b
“... We fit a logistic curve to the data coming from the European and American countries with high enough cases confirm that if the disease is indeed out of control and it will spread and end in approximately 75 days from the day it started ...”
If we take January 1 as the day the outbreak started, we are NOW 108 days out.
If we take January 15 as the start, we are NOW 93 days out, and if we use Jan. 31, we are NOW 78 days out.
Has the outbreak ended, or even peaked, as the authors claimed/predicted?

A pneumonia of unknown cause detected in Wuhan, China was first reported to the WHO Country Office in China on 31 December 2019.
The date of symptom onset, for the first case of COVID-1,9 reported in Canada, became ill on January 15, 2020.
The outbreak was declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern on 30 January 2020.
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is online now  
Old 17-04-2020, 05:44   #153
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 49,128
Images: 241
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
The Finnish Ministry of Health today released the result of an antibody study carried out on a large quantity of blood samples which were in the health system anyway, unrelated to suspected COVID cases. The results are staggering -- something like 100x number of positives you would expect from the official cases per million...
I’ve seen numerous articles*, stating that Finland’s Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), is to START researching the spread of novel coronavirus in the country with the help of broad antibody testing.
I’ve seen no published results.
Could you please provide a link, to your source?


*➥ https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/m...sting/11302565
*➥ https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/f...ffort/11296520
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is online now  
Old 17-04-2020, 06:07   #154
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 5,607
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
The Finnish Ministry of Health today released the result of an antibody study carried out on a large quantity of blood samples which were in the health system anyway, unrelated to suspected COVID cases. The results are staggering -- something like 100x number of positives you would expect from the official cases per million.


They caution that the same isn't big enough or random enough to prove anything conclusively, but it EXACTLY lines up with a study done in Denmark recently on blood donor blood.


Looks more and more like the linked article could be right and the world might have just totally screwed the pooch with our lockdowns.


If we are undercounting by 50x or whatever, then we totally misunderstand how the disease spreads, how infectious it is, and the fatality rate. It means the fatality rate is similar to ordinary flu.
Not sure if you're following one of CF's related CV-19 threads (there seem to be many), but this post (citing Bloomberg News) cites testing from China which may be consistent with the Finnish & Danish studies you're referring to.

“China for the first time publicized a breakdown of people testing positive for the novel coronavirus without outward signs of being sick, revealing that those among them who remain symptom-free throughout infection are in the majority.

Among 6,764 people who tested positive for infection without showing symptoms, only one fifth of them -- 1,297 -- have so far developed symptoms and been re-classified as confirmed cases, China’s National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng said at a briefing in Beijing Wednesday.”

In contrast, the CDC is cited elsewhere in that same thread as now officially attributing mortalities to CV-19 without confirmation through testing. This could be skewing the mortality rate upwards.
Exile is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 06:17   #155
cruiser

Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Caribbean
Boat: Living the dream - New Gunboat 55
Posts: 252
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by Exile View Post
Not sure if you're following one of CF's related CV-19 threads (there seem to be many), but this post (citing Bloomberg News) cites testing from China which may be consistent with the Finnish & Danish studies you're referring to.

“China for the first time publicized a breakdown of people testing positive for the novel coronavirus without outward signs of being sick, revealing that those among them who remain symptom-free throughout infection are in the majority.

Among 6,764 people who tested positive for infection without showing symptoms, only one fifth of them -- 1,297 -- have so far developed symptoms and been re-classified as confirmed cases, China’s National Health Commission spokesman Mi Feng said at a briefing in Beijing Wednesday.”

In contrast, the CDC is cited elsewhere in that same thread as now officially attributing mortalities to CV-19 without confirmation through testing. This could be skewing the mortality rate upwards.
The numbers are being outright faked and the media laps up the lies because if they tell the truth they will loose their jobs. Gov officials lie, health officials lie.

A suspected case of the virus is now counted without proof, a heart attack is not a covid death.

Lies to frighten the sheeple into compliance with their illegal orders.
TigerPaws is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 06:29   #156
Registered User
 
Exile's Avatar

Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Land of Disenchantment
Boat: Bristol 47.7
Posts: 5,607
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by TigerPaws View Post
The numbers are being outright faked and the media laps up the lies because if they tell the truth they will loose their jobs. Gov officials lie, health officials lie.

A suspected case of the virus is now counted without proof, a heart attack is not a covid death.

Lies to frighten the sheeple into compliance with their illegal orders.
Not sure if there's deliberate skewing of the numbers going on, but have read reports (like we all have) of ongoing shortages of testing kits which are (quite rationally) being preserved for the living over the dead. Also as discussed, there are huge disparities in cases -- or at least those serious enough to require hospitalization -- in different parts of the world and within the US. In my own medium-sized US city, for example, one of the largest hospital groups are planning to lay off 300 health care workers due to not having enough patients.
Exile is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 07:16   #157
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 33,764
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by GordMay View Post
I’ve seen numerous articles*, stating that Finland’s Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), is to START researching the spread of novel coronavirus in the country with the help of broad antibody testing.
I’ve seen no published results.
Could you please provide a link, to your source?


*➥ https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/m...sting/11302565
*➥ https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/f...ffort/11296520



Here's an English language article on it from today's Helsinki Times: https://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland...n-finland.html


Here's the actual Ministry of Health press release, but it's only in Finnish:


https://thl.fi/fi/-/koronavirustartu...tuja-tapauksia


The headline is: "There may be tens of times more people infected with coronavirus than confirmed cases"
__________________
"You sea! I resign myself to you also . . . . I guess what you mean,
I behold from the beach your crooked inviting fingers,
I believe you refuse to go back without feeling of me;
We must have a turn together . . . . I undress . . . . hurry me out of sight of the land,
Cushion me soft . . . . rock me in billowy drowse,
Dash me with amorous wet . . . . I can repay you."
Walt Whitman
Dockhead is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 07:31   #158
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 33,764
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Further relaxation of rules in Denmark announced today, effective on Monday:


More avenues of Denmark reopening on April 20 - The Post


There has never been a "lockdown" in Denmark, no stay at home order, no banning social gatherings so long as not more than 10 people, no restrictions on travel inside the country. Shops of all kinds have been open the whole time, including chandleries. But hairdressers, tattooists, dentists, and courts have been closed -- those will now reopen on Monday. Schools reopened on Wednesday.



Thank God hairdressers will open, because I'm starting to look like an English sheepdog without a haircut.


The Danes are accelerating opening up, as hospitalizations and intensive care cases continue falling. They are past the peak, at least of this wave, and the peak never got close to stressing the health care system. Although if 50x as many people were infected as was believed, maybe the virus has already done its worst with minimal loss of life. I'm almost afraid to hope for this -- it would be wonderful if true.


See: Denmark to expand gradual reopening of country - The Post
__________________
"You sea! I resign myself to you also . . . . I guess what you mean,
I behold from the beach your crooked inviting fingers,
I believe you refuse to go back without feeling of me;
We must have a turn together . . . . I undress . . . . hurry me out of sight of the land,
Cushion me soft . . . . rock me in billowy drowse,
Dash me with amorous wet . . . . I can repay you."
Walt Whitman
Dockhead is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 07:47   #159
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2015
Boat: Hanse 531
Posts: 1,076
Images: 1
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
The Finnish Ministry of Health today released the result of an antibody study carried out on a large quantity of blood samples which were in the health system anyway, unrelated to suspected COVID cases. The results are staggering -- something like 100x number of positives you would expect from the official cases per million.
I don't know if I understood this correctly but I arrive at somewhat less staggering numbers:

1) Antibody test worst figure week 15 was 3.4% infected. There are roughly 1.7M people in that region so => 3.4% * 1.7M = 57,800.

2) Real tested figure from today (admittedly, a few days later) was about 2,200 for the same region so 57,800 / 2,200 = 26x. If I remember correctly, this is well within the ranges that were previously speculated?

3) The official (tested) case per million for the HUS region is at the moment about 1,300 and the study gives 34,000 => 26x.

What did I do wrong?
__________________
Call me Mikael
nkdsailor.blog
mglonnro is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 07:48   #160
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2015
Boat: Hanse 531
Posts: 1,076
Images: 1
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post

Thank God hairdressers will open, because I'm starting to look like an English sheepdog without a haircut.
My thoughts about myself also
__________________
Call me Mikael
nkdsailor.blog
mglonnro is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 08:03   #161
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 33,764
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by mglonnro View Post
I don't know if I understood this correctly but I arrive at somewhat less staggering numbers:

1) Antibody test worst figure week 15 was 3.4% infected. There are roughly 1.7M people in that region so => 3.4% * 1.7M = 57,800.

2) Real tested figure from today (admittedly, a few days later) was about 2,200 for the same region so 57,800 / 2,200 = 26x. If I remember correctly, this is well within the ranges that were previously speculated?

3) The official (tested) case per million for the HUS region is at the moment about 1,300 and the study gives 34,000 => 26x.

What did I do wrong?

I didn't dive into the numbers, but assuming you did them right -- 26x is not staggering? It's HUGE. It's an order of magnitude plus. It really changes everything about what we believe. IF it's true -- and note that the study emphasizes that the sample is too small to give much confidence. We shall see.
__________________
"You sea! I resign myself to you also . . . . I guess what you mean,
I behold from the beach your crooked inviting fingers,
I believe you refuse to go back without feeling of me;
We must have a turn together . . . . I undress . . . . hurry me out of sight of the land,
Cushion me soft . . . . rock me in billowy drowse,
Dash me with amorous wet . . . . I can repay you."
Walt Whitman
Dockhead is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 08:04   #162
Moderator
 
Dockhead's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Helsinki (Summer); Cruising the Baltic Sea this year!
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 33,764
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by mglonnro View Post
My thoughts about myself also

Are hairdressers closed in Suomi?
__________________
"You sea! I resign myself to you also . . . . I guess what you mean,
I behold from the beach your crooked inviting fingers,
I believe you refuse to go back without feeling of me;
We must have a turn together . . . . I undress . . . . hurry me out of sight of the land,
Cushion me soft . . . . rock me in billowy drowse,
Dash me with amorous wet . . . . I can repay you."
Walt Whitman
Dockhead is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 08:44   #163
Registered User

Join Date: Jul 2015
Boat: Hanse 531
Posts: 1,076
Images: 1
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead View Post
I didn't dive into the numbers, but assuming you did them right -- 26x is not staggering? It's HUGE. It's an order of magnitude plus. It really changes everything about what we believe. IF it's true -- and note that the study emphasizes that the sample is too small to give much confidence. We shall see.
Yes, well, one problem with my numbers is that the antibody number should be compared with the situation two weeks ago.

But as to the 26x -- that would be roughly in line with what THL said already a month ago, that the real number of infections can be 20-30x the confirmed ones. Back then it sounded very reasonable given the fact that the testing was very limited.

P.S. The hairdressers are open! I just haven't found the will to go yet.
__________________
Call me Mikael
nkdsailor.blog
mglonnro is offline  
Old 17-04-2020, 10:11   #164
Senior Cruiser
 
GordMay's Avatar

Cruisers Forum Supporter

Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Thunder Bay, Ontario - 48-29N x 89-20W
Boat: (Cruiser Living On Dirt)
Posts: 49,128
Images: 241
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Thanks for the links, Dockhead.
The linked Helsinki Times article seems to be a faithful reproduction of the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare press release, quoted below:

“Number of people with coronavirus infections may be dozens of times higher than the number of confirmed cases” (in English)
“An antibody study carried out by the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL) has found that the number of people infected with coronavirus in the Hospital District of Helsinki and Uusimaa (HUS) may be many times higher than the confirmed number of cases...
... The samples were collected from HUSLAB’s clinical chemistry laboratories over a period of three consecutive weeks 23 March – 12 April 2020. The sampling included a total of 442 samples from men and women between the ages of 15 and 90, who had given a blood sample for reasons other than anyinfection. These surplus samples from laboratory tests were examined without personal identifiers...
... The sampling taken during week 13, included 145 samples of which one sample (0.7 percent) was observed to contain antibodies.
No antibodies were found from the 150 samples in week 14 sampling.
The sampling taken during week 15, included 147 samples of which 5 samples (3.4 percent) was observed to contain antibodies.
Antibodies form on average over a period of two weeks meaning that the results reflected the presence of infections two weeks prior to sampling. Due to the small number of samples and findings examined, the results must be interpreted with some caution...
... More information on the presence of antibodies in the population and more detailed estimates on the share of people infected with coronavirus will be provided by the random sampling-based population study that THL initiated last week*. The study examines the presence of antibodies in different age groups and in Finland’s different regions."
Herehttps://thl.fi/en/web/thlfi-en/-/num...imes-higher-th

* The new study, of which I previously found news reports.

So, they found (1+0+5) 6 positive cases, out of 442 samples (<1.36%). (4 - 5 times lower)

Updated on 17th April at 17:50 ➥ https://thl.fi/en/web/infectious-dis...on-coronavirus
Tested samples: approx. 52,500 (+ approx. 2,800 change from previous day)
Reported cases: 3,489 (+ 120 change from previous day)
Hence: 3,389 ÷ 52,500 = > 6.4% (4-5 times higher)

My arithmetic (always suspect) doesn't add up to the headline.
__________________
Gord May
"If you didn't have the time or money to do it right in the first place, when will you get the time/$ to fix it?"



GordMay is online now  
Old 18-04-2020, 02:27   #165
Registered User
 
Recy's Avatar

Join Date: Apr 2015
Location: Stockholm, Sweden
Boat: Sun Odyssey 45.2
Posts: 149
Re: Northern Europe this Summer

Swedish epidemiologists´ thoughts about the lockdown.

https://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up...of2YDemk9qL7d8
Recy is offline  
 

Tags
rope, Europe

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Panama to San Diego 2020/2021 benbis Pacific & South China Sea 40 22-08-2023 00:55
2020/2021 Plans for East Coast US Cruisers sailorboy1 General Sailing Forum 13 02-10-2020 17:45
Caribbean 2020/2021 catarch Americas 6 10-07-2020 06:28

Advertise Here


All times are GMT -7. The time now is 02:10.


Google+
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Social Knowledge Networks
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 1
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

ShowCase vBulletin Plugins by Drive Thru Online, Inc.