Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Hi Greg
You ask what conclusions can be drawn from the data presented.

Not many from this raw data, particularly considering the document states several time that no conclusions can be drawn from these figures regarding vaccine effectiveness for the following reasons:

“These raw data should not be used to estimate vaccine effectiveness as the data does not take into account inherent biases present such as differences in risk, behaviour and testing in the vaccinated and unvaccinated populations.”

The actual effectiveness of 2 vaccines (AZ and Pfizer) against hospitalisation and mortality is presented and it is still excellent: 80-90% even at the 20+ week mark following the second dose, despite dropping slightly over time. Symptomatic disease reduction is less (50% & 70% respectively), but still significant.

It is sensible to read the entire document, rather than zooming in on bits of information without clarification and therefore jumping to incorrect conclusions.

SWL

See my reply above to Goboatingnow, Teddydriver, Anders and Pinguino. I am not asking anyone to make any conclusions regarding the effectiveness of the vaccine. Rather, to repeat, I am asking for your conclusions whether this raw data supports the necessity for covid passports apartheid policy against the unvaccinated in terms of posing a greater threat of spreading the virus and a much higher burden on medical resources than the vaccinated.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Greg K

See my reply above to Goboatingnow, Teddydriver, Anders and Pinguino. I am not asking anyone to make any conclusions regarding the effectiveness of the vaccine. Rather, to repeat, I am asking for your conclusions whether this raw data supports the necessity for covid passports apartheid policy against the unvaccinated in terms of posing a greater threat of spreading the virus and a much higher burden on medical resources than the vaccinated.

Hi Greg
I am strongly against any “apartheid policy” or “segregation” of the unvaccinated, but zero conclusions can be made from the raw data you have presented.

All information I have seen does indicate that the unvaccinated vulnerable do pose a higher burden on medical resources, but this well defined is group is a minority. Treating the rest of the unvaccinated (who are at very low risk of severe illness) in the same manner is very wrong in my view.

SWL

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Greg K

See my reply above to Goboatingnow, Teddydriver, Anders and Pinguino. I am not asking anyone to make any conclusions regarding the effectiveness of the vaccine. Rather, to repeat, I am asking for your conclusions whether this raw data supports the necessity for covid passports apartheid policy against the unvaccinated in terms of posing a greater threat of spreading the virus and a much higher burden on medical resources than the vaccinated.

That paper says exactly zero, on the question of whether vaccine passports are a good idea, or not. That paper is one little piece, in a much bigger process. You are drawing conclusions which would shock the authors.

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Hi Greg
I am strongly against any “apartheid policy” or “segregation” of the unvaccinated, but zero conclusions can be made from the raw data you have presented.

All information I have seen does indicate that the unvaccinated vulnerable do pose a higher burden on medical resources, but this well defined is group is a minority. Treating the rest of the unvaccinated (who are at very low risk of severe illness) in the same manner is very wrong in my view.

SWL

Thank you for sharing your opinion, SWL. I, too, have been strongly opposed to such policies, and am now astounded that those who have been advocating such policies on the basis that the unvaccinated pose a greater threat of spreading the virus as well as being a much higher burden on medical resources than the vaccinated can still maintain their stance in view of such data coming out of the UK which clearly demonstrates this is not the case at all. As per the linked data, total UK ER admissions for the vaccinated from week 41-44 ( table 4) were almost twice that of the unvaccinated for the same time period. (6,461 compared to 3,313) And, of course, the graph for infections I posted speaks for itself.

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by Greg K

Thank you for sharing your opinion, SWL. I, too, have been strongly opposed to such policies, and am now astounded that those who have been advocating such policies on the basis that the unvaccinated pose a greater threat of spreading the virus as well as being a much higher burden on medical resources than the vaccinated can still maintain their stance in view of such data coming out of the UK which clearly demonstrates this is not the case at all. As per the linked data, total UK ER admissions for the vaccinated from week 41-44 ( table 4) were almost twice that of the unvaccinated for the same time period. (6,461 compared to 3,313) And, of course, the graph for infections I posted speaks for itself.

NOT at all what we are seeing here in British Columbia...

Because there are so many more who are vaccinated (compared to unvaccinated) , one has to view RATE (e.g., per 100,000):

CASE RATE (vaccination status vs age):




HOSPITALIZATION RATE (vs vaccination status):



Source:
https://news.gov.bc.ca/files/04.11.2...9Modelling.pdf

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by sv_pelagia

Because there are so many more who are vaccinated (compared to unvaccinated) , one has to view RATE (e.g., per 100,000):

Arguable whether that actually matters or makes any difference in reality at this point, especially since there are so few unvaccinated. Certainly not enough to support a policy of segregation of the unvaccinated.

[Dockhead]

Speaking of vaccine apartheid. I'm not commenting on whether it's right or wrong, but Latvia may be showing the way to the world.

For a couple of weeks recently Latvia had the worst outbreak in Europe, with over 1000 daily infections per million for weeks, and deaths exceeding 20 per million at times, like the worst of the initial outbreak in Italy in 2020. And death is still near 20 per million and hospitals are overflowing. This is the result of Latvia's having barely vaccinated 50% of the population, the lowest or nearly the lowest rate in Europe.

Yet this evening I went to the theatre in Riga, and took a long walk in Old Town. The bars and restaurants are full of happy, unmasked people. Shopping malls are busy. Streets are full of people. Life looks pretty normal. A 3 week curfew and restrictions ended on 15 November. When I went to the theatre, it seemed to me that the ushers had tears in their eyes. Theatres have been closed on and off for a year and a half. This evening, Dostoevsky was on offer. Riga's Russian theater is the oldest in the world outside of Russia -- Mikhail Chekhov himself lived in Riga and worked in this theatre for some time. It's the center of cultural life in Riga. It's been closed for most of the pandemic; God knows how the actors have been surviving.

However -- the life described is only for the vaccinated. You cannot enter any shop, not even a grocery store, without a vaccination certificate with a QR code. You cannot enter a restaurant, bar, or any other public place. A fresh test is no substitute. Only vaccination. You're either vaxxed, or you're a non-person. Sit at home and watch Netflix.

In the news today, unvaccinated members of the Latvian parliament have lost their right to vote. So political decisions are being made exclusively by the vaccinated.

They are really serious about not letting the unvaccinated spoil it for everyone else. I'm not commenting on whether this is right or not, but that is what it is.

[Baronkrak]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

But that is certainly not a logical reason to wait the year or three it takes to work that out, before getting vaccinated with the very safe and very effective vaccines we already have.

I wait and so will be many for the simple reason that the vaccines we already have, have no benefit but too many risks.

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

For those people at high risk, I think the vaccine is a godsend, but I think it is wrong to be coercing those whose risk of dying from COVID-19 is next to non existent, to be injected with vaccines that have zero long term data and whose mode of action (genetically instructing our cells to produce a virus spike protein) has never been approved for human use prior to this pandemic.

[sv_pelagia]

Originally Posted by Greg K

Arguable whether that actually matters or makes any difference in reality at this point, especially since there are so few unvaccinated. Certainly not enough to support a policy of segregation of the unvaccinated.

Except that sick UNvaccinated ARE causing hospitals, and especially intensive care units, to reach (and exceed) capacity!

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Greg K

snip
If you do still wish to comment on this point, keep in mind that ( to my understanding at least) the justifications as often stated by supporters of such a policy are that the numbers of infections and hospitalizations are greater among the unvaccinated and, therefore, not only to they pose a greater threat of spreading the virus but also pose a much higher burden on medical resources. Looking at this data, are these justification still valid?

Simple yes.. as all you got to do is go and get the vaccine. period

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Simple yes.. as all you got to do is go and get the vaccine. period

And becouse it's not about the right to be unvaccinated but about the responsibilty to fellow citizens and society. You may call it apartheid or whatever but it's your own choice to be "discriminated" which you can stop yourself..

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Baronkrak

I wait and so will be many for the simple reason that the vaccines we already have, have no benefit but too many risks.

No benefit? Where do you get that? The mRNA vaccines are more than 90% effective against symptomatic infection in the first months, waning after that but in the worst case still 50% effective even 6 months later. More than 90% effective against hospitalization and death for as long as we have data. That's "no benefit"? Seriously?


We have a mass of data; this is not a guess. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-immunity.html

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Speaking of vaccine apartheid. I'm not commenting on whether it's right or wrong, but Latvia may be showing the way to the world.
----

So what would be your final solution that would see the german speaking populations of Europe getting fully vaxxed?

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

So what would be your final solution that would see the german speaking populations of Europe getting fully vaxxed?

You Assies have an island somewhere in Pacific where unwanted people are delivered I've heard.. or have you a final solution for that????

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

So what would be your final solution that would see the german speaking populations of Europe getting fully vaxxed?

I don't know, Ping. I'm a civil libertarian and one part of me says we should respect people's decision to not get vaccinated. The other part of me says those who make that decision are ruining life for the rest of us based on some irrational prejudices and disinformation stpread through social media. So I dont' know.