Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Anders]

Austria has announced a full lockdown from Monday for 20 days.
Austria is also announcing a law that everyone must be vaccinated by February 1th.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

My guess as of this moment is that Austria will be the exception rather than the rule.


However, I agree with you that if hospital capacity starts to get strained anywhere, all bets are off. However much I may be against unnecessary restrictions -- and I suspect that very many of the restrictions used so far were unnecessary -- I do agree that restrictions necessary to protect hospital capacity ARE necessary. That was the original aim of the restrictions, and the idea in my opinion is sound.


In our part of the world, although we have soaring infections in Denmark and a significant outbreak in Norway, hospitals are still pretty much empty:


Attachment 248549


Ireland is much higher but doesn't look ALL that bad to me. Germany is worrying, however.


But we shall see, won't we? Stay tuned.

Ireland has one of Europe’s lowest bed and icu capacity however hence it can be overwhelmed quite quickly

[TeddyDiver]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Well, I think that's right, at least in hindsight. Several different studies showed that the speed of implementation of measures was much more important than WHICH measures were implemented.


So slamming the border shut instantly would have probably been the most effective thing anyone could have done.


HOWEVER, this is all in hindsight. When did we actually know that this was going to be a disastrous pandemic? We have viruses of concern appearing all the time. Should we slam the border shut several times a year every time there is a suspected pandemic virus? I don't think we can. Which is not to say we couldn't have reacted faster; I think we could have.

Not just hindsight, many people demanded early measures in february -20 me included. But honorable health authorities in the west didn't believe early Chinese studies regarding Covid. Then suddenly in march, when we (meaning most countries) had infected of their own, borders suddenly closed. Quite counter intuitive to lock the door afterwards I'd say..

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by TeddyDiver

Not just hindsight, many people demanded early measures in february -20 me included. But honorable health authorities in the west didn't believe early Chinese studies regarding Covid. Then suddenly in march, when we (meaning most countries) had infected of their own, borders suddenly closed. Quite counter intuitive to lock the door afterwards I'd say..

Fair enough.

[Exile]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Sent to me from a friend in Ireland

Attachment 248541

Originally Posted by Greg K

So can we now finally stop blaming the unvaccinated and admit that the vaccines are failing?

If my math is correct, the Nov. 2020 numbers posted from Ireland indicate an approx. 72% hospitalization rate among the infected, whereas the Nov. 2021 rates show closer to 14%. So no, I don't think any conclusion can be drawn that the vaccines are failing, unless the dramatically lower hospitalization (and death) rates can be all or mostly attributed to the Delta variant being (predictably) more contagious but less lethal. We've already known for awhile now that the vaccines would be less effective at preventing infection and more effective at preventing severity of illness, and the stats from Ireland above seem to be but one example.

If I correctly understand the study you posted and commented on above, however, it does seem to lend support to increasing evidence that natural immunity from people who have recovered from Covid has been underestimated, and may even be more effective than vaccines should your study prove correct. For these and other reasons, I share your concerns about the trend towards blaming the unvaccinated. Not only because there may not be sufficient support for it in the science, but because I fear it may backfire in various undesirable ways as it becomes increasingly politicized. Based on what we know and, more importantly, don't know about this virus, it's just all too easy to look for easy answers and find scapegoats for peoples' (understandable) frustrations.

But this is from my own perspective living in the US, and recognize that other countries -- for e.g. Australia & NZ -- may have more rational, science-based rationales for stricter (or different) approaches given their unique geographies, borders, cultures, and trust in their own govts. Still, there are a myriad of reasons why people are choosing not to get vaccinated, and until/unless there is more compelling evidence that they pose a significant threat to the vaccinated population, I think many govts are treading on dangerous ground with policies that try and isolate or ostracize such groups. Maybe more so now given the increasing viability and availability of effective Covid treatments.

[Anders]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

England's restrictions were put on and off; you were probably there when they were off. During long periods, people in England were not allowed to leave their homes, shops and businesses were closed on a mass level, it was impossible to leave the country and come back without lengthy mandatory quarantine, schools were closed. People in England went through a really tough time, which has had massive costs, including, just to name one small example, a significant death toll from people who failed to get medical treatment for other conditions.

We missed the first lockdown but came back in August last year. Non essential shops closed later but we could go to the shops that was allowed to be open. Could go out for "excersice" and enforcement of any laws was lax with only small fines for first offenders. Was a minor inconvenience that we could not go to the pub but I can't say that it ever felt brutal when we were there.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Greg K

So can we now finally stop blaming the unvaccinated and admit that the vaccines are failing?

No!

Those Irish stats for November 2021 are meaningless without knowing how many of those hospitalised were vaccinated and how many unvaccinated.

NSW is an Australian state of over 8 million people with over 90% of over 12's fully vaccinated. So the black bars show what is happening to about 7% of the adult population, the orange show the effect on the 90% that are fully vaccinated.

https://www.covid19data.com.au/vaccination-status

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Greg K

Without doubt. No other explanation considering the stark difference in pre and post vax.

Still, I expect there are those here who will suggest that locking down the remainder 7% of the Irish who remain unvaccinated in their homes would resolve the situation in two weeks.

The public health discourse in Ireland and here in Greece is very much that the unvaccinated remain a huge issue and source of infection . The CMO in Ireland has said as much. Expect more vaccinated liberties and removal of access to the unvaccinated.

The other thing is the ire of the public who are now potentially facing more notbkrss restrictions is turning on the unvaccinated ( rightly or wrongly )

The “mood music “ in Ireland is setting up for more restrictions not less

19th Nov

“HSE chief Paul Reid asks public to 'bear with us' as hospitals see 40% surge

“The entire health system, both hospitals and community healthcare, are now under very serious pressure”


“Paul Reid CEO HSE says healthcare system under 'severe strain'

Our Healthcare system is under 'severe strain'”


( HSE , Health services executive, rather like the NHS on the U.K. )

The next step before was restrictions increased “ to protect the health service “

The chief medical officier and head of NPHET ( national public health emergency team )

Said recently

“No reduction in socialisation

Dr Holohan also said they are not seeing "encouraging signs of reduction in socialisation".

He said the data about people's changes in behaviour from the ESRI may look like small changes, but they have an amplification effect in terms of the numbers of cases.

He said the level of socialising is something that cannot be sustained in terms of case numbers. His message to people was to plan activities accordingly.”

“ cannot be sustained “ is simply “ my next recommendations to Gov is to start shutting things down again. Pity the restaurants , bars , night clubs

[Stu Jackson]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Sent to me from a friend in Ireland

Attachment 248541

Isn't that meaningless without showing how many of the 2021 cases were NOT vaccinated?

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Stu Jackson

Isn't that meaningless without showing how many of the 2021 cases were NOT vaccinated?

Here's the stats on UK infections. Looking at this graph, what conclusions do you come to regarding the necessity for covid passports apartheid policy against the unvaccinated?


You can find all the data from the UK government here for week 45. Same question.

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._-_week_45.pdf

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

The public health discourse in Ireland and here in Greece is very much that the unvaccinated remain a huge issue and source of infection . The CMO in Ireland has said as much. Expect more vaccinated liberties and removal of access to the unvaccinated.

The other thing is the ire of the public who are now potentially facing more notbkrss restrictions is turning on the unvaccinated ( rightly or wrongly )

So, "follow the science" has basically turned into mob rule and medical tyranny fuelled by government propaganda. Surprise, surprise...

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Greg K

Here's the stats on UK infections. Looking at this graph, what conclusions do you come to regarding the necessity for covid passports apartheid policy against the unvaccinated?


You can find all the data from the UK government here for week 45. Same question.

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._-_week_45.pdf

It doesn't matter how many cases there are , what matters is how many end up in hospital.

I'll try and keep it simple for you. How many people get a runny nose in a normal year? How many without a flu shot end up in hospital? How many with a flu shot are hospitalised..?

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by Exile

If my math is correct, the Nov. 2020 numbers posted from Ireland indicate an approx. 72% hospitalization rate among the infected, whereas the Nov. 2021 rates show closer to 14%. So no, I don't think any conclusion can be drawn that the vaccines are failing, unless the dramatically lower hospitalization (and death) rates can be all or mostly attributed to the Delta variant being (predictably) more contagious but less lethal. We've already known for awhile now that the vaccines would be less effective at preventing infection and more effective at preventing severity of illness, and the stats from Ireland above seem to be but one example.

If I correctly understand the study you posted and commented on above, however, it does seem to lend support to increasing evidence that natural immunity from people who have recovered from Covid has been underestimated, and may even be more effective than vaccines should your study prove correct. For these and other reasons, I share your concerns about the trend towards blaming the unvaccinated. Not only because there may not be sufficient support for it in the science, but because I fear it may backfire in various undesirable ways as it becomes increasingly politicized. Based on what we know and, more importantly, don't know about this virus, it's just all too easy to look for easy answers and find scapegoats for peoples' (understandable) frustrations.

But this is from my own perspective living in the US, and recognize that other countries -- for e.g. Australia & NZ -- may have more rational, science-based rationales for stricter (or different) approaches given their unique geographies, borders, cultures, and trust in their own govts. Still, there are a myriad of reasons why people are choosing not to get vaccinated, and until/unless there is more compelling evidence that they pose a significant threat to the vaccinated population, I think many govts are treading on dangerous ground with policies that try and isolate or ostracize such groups. Maybe more so now given the increasing viability and availability of effective Covid treatments.

I agree with you regarding natural immunity and the harmful scapegoating of the unvaccinated, but you do not correctly understand the study I posted. Suggest you reread it and have a look at my answers to Paul ( a few pages back (48 -49 ?) regarding what this study is about. Here it is again:
https://www.mdpi.com/1999-4915/13/10/2056/htm

[Greg K]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

It doesn't matter how many cases there are , what matters is how many end up in hospital.

I'll try and keep it simple for you. How many people get a runny nose in a normal year? How many without a flu shot end up in hospital? How many with a flu shot are hospitalised..?

The information you are seeking is in the link I provided. Here it is again. Table 4 gives you the emergency care; table 5 gives you deaths. Tell me, in sheer numbers for all ages combined, which group is larger.. the vaccinated or the unvaccinated?

https://assets.publishing.service.go..._-_week_45.pdf

[Dockhead]

Germany is having its worst outbreak by far since the pandemic started. Poor Germans were thinking it was finally about over, and now this.

German health minister announced yesterday that a national lockdown (stay at home order) could not be excluded. Something not yet ever implemented in Germany. The nightmare never ends.

Death rate is not at all bad in Germany, and cumulative deaths are better than any European country outside of the Nordic region,(and Ireland) and better even than Sweden. But it's reported here that there is some stress on hospitals - https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/19/w...-lockdown.html
So you can understand that they are considering renewed restrictions.