Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Of course I agree! I linked the whole article, in the hopes that people would read it all!

The quoted part does NOT contradict the other part. For the very dull among us, the point, which I thought (I guess in vain) would be obvious, is this:

1. UK is having a pretty high infection rate.
2. To such an extent that there is already a certain amount of stress in the hospitals.
3. However, there seems to be a pretty solid consensus in favor of leaving the restrictions off.
4. Because this is the new normal and there is very little sentiment in favor of going back to the endless lockdowns.
5. And after all, although hospitals are under some stress, it's not that much stress compared to the previous peaks (that's the 4.5x less point).
6. Because vaccination has a profound effect.

NOW do you get it? You might not agree with this or that, and that's fine, but that is what the article is saying. I have no idea how it will turn out. Nor I daresay does the author of the NYT piece. We shall see.

You linked an article along with a quote from it that some guy says people just plan to live with the current conditions and the only statement you made on it downplayed the seriousness of the problems: "Hospital admissions still 4.5x lower than during the last peak in January."
And somehow you think this should be interpreted as your steps 1 through 6 listing.
You've posted over and over your interpretation of how well countries that do the minimum are doing. It gets a little tiring when its pretty clear to many others that the Delta variant doesn't care. Hospital systems are getting seriously overcrowded in many areas and there are no signs of it being over soon. Of course vaccines are doing a lot in the right direction, but it ain't over yet,

Warning Scotland's NHS faces 'perfect storm' as covid cases soar past 7,000
Scotland has recorded yet another record number of Covid cases as Health Secretary Humza Yousaf warned the NHS was facing a “perfect storm”.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...t-7000-3363869

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Paul L

You linked an article along with a quote from it that some guy says people just plan to live with the current conditions and the only statement you made on it downplayed the seriousness of the problems: "Hospital admissions still 4.5x lower than during the last peak in January."
And somehow you think this should be interpreted as your steps 1 through 6 listing.

I can't do the reading for you.


You do not understand at all what anyone is saying. No one knows how it will turn out in the UK -- it's an experiment. The bit I quoted was the essence of the thinking behind that experiment. I expressed no opinion about whether the experiment will work or not, and neither did the NYT writer.

Originally Posted by Paul L

. . .You've posted over and over your interpretation of how well countries that do the minimum are doing. It gets a little tiring when its pretty clear to many others that the Delta variant doesn't care. Hospital systems are getting seriously overcrowded in many areas and there are no signs of it being over soon. Of course vaccines are doing a lot in the right direction, but it ain't over yet,

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...t-7000-3363869

If it's "tiring", then why do you read it?


I have written about the Nordic approach to the pandemic and I think by this point in the pandemic it's starting to become fairly safe to say that this approach has worked relatively well compared to what has been done elsewhere. And no, the Nordic approach is not "doing the minimum" -- it's simply a different approach to managing the pandemic. But even here I never claimed that the good outcomes in the Nordic countries are a direct effect of the quality of the pandemic measures -- there is luck, and timing, involved in everything concerning the pandemic. What you can say, however, is that the different and lighter pandemic measures didn't PREVENT the good outcome.



The UK approach has been totally different from the Nordic approach, and I never praised it. The UK approach has been characterized by violent u-turns in policy, and by what must have been over a year of hard lockdown. I don't say that this CAUSED the fairly bad outcome in the UK but certainly it didn't prevent that bad outcome. But what the UK did do well was vaccination. Now they have made another u-turn in policy and are relying on vaccination to prevent really bad effects of the next Delta-fueled wave of the pandemic. If it works, it may show the way to other countries -- what the NYT writer was writing about, without expressing any opinion on whether it WILL work. As I said -- we shall see.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Paul L

You linked an article along with a quote from it that some guy says people just plan to live with the current conditions and the only statement you made on it downplayed the seriousness of the problems: "Hospital admissions still 4.5x lower than during the last peak in January."
And somehow you think this should be interpreted as your steps 1 through 6 listing.
You've posted over and over your interpretation of how well countries that do the minimum are doing. It gets a little tiring when its pretty clear to many others that the Delta variant doesn't care. Hospital systems are getting seriously overcrowded in many areas and there are no signs of it being over soon. Of course vaccines are doing a lot in the right direction, but it ain't over yet,

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politic...t-7000-3363869

Headlines sell papers .

Despite relatively high case numbers in Scotland, the article also reports that there are only 507 cases in hospital with COVID-19. In addition, the article states that when asked if restrictions were likely to be reintroduced, Professor Bauld (professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh) said she did not see that as a likely outcome:

"I think things would have to get a lot worse in terms of hospital capacity for that to occur and I don’t see that on the immediate horizon despite there being some challenges in some areas."

It seems so many of us are still consumed with fear regarding this new virus, despite a very high percentage of the population having antibodies to this new virus (94% in the UK) and despite the relatively low deaths now occurring in areas where most of the vulnerable are fully vaccinated.

The current risks if infected with SARS-CoV-2 need to be put into perspective. On average over 600,000 were dying in the UK yearly prior to the pandemic. We do not live in fear from every other cause of death that we are at risk of, even the infectious ones such as influenza. We face risks daily, many of which we choose not to mitigate. In my view, the fear now surrounding this disease is not proportional to risk.

SWL

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . .It seems so many of us are still consumed with fear regarding this new virus, despite a very high percentage of the population having antibodies to this new virus (94% in the UK) and despite the relatively low deaths now occurring in areas where most of the vulnerable are fully vaccinated.

The current risks if infected with SARS-CoV-2 need to be put into perspective. On average over 600,000 were dying in the UK yearly prior to the pandemic. We do not live in fear from every other cause of death that we are at risk of, even the infectious ones such as influenza. We face risks daily, many of which we choose not to mitigate. In my view, the fear now surrounding this disease is not proportional to risk.

SWL

And I think that is the thinking behind the new policy in the UK. I think the logic is something like -- 1. When the population had little immunity and the death rate was high, that may justify using costly and destructive measures on a short term basis, because otherwise the death rate will be unacceptable; 2. But when the population has a high degree of immunity the justification for costly measures is weaker, and we should rather carry on with normal life without an unacceptable death rate, perhaps protecting the vulnerable (a la Great Barrington).

I'm not saying whether I agree with it, and certainly Part 1 of that logic did not bring any noticeably good results, but I think this is the thinking behind the policy. In any case, I really hope for the best in the UK. The Brits deserve a break. The Brits have had one of the worst experiences with this pandemic of any nation, having experienced both high infection and death rates and very destructive and burdensome restrictions. I really hope they've turned the corner now. If this DOESN'T work, and the UK feels itself forced to go back into hard measures -- which certainly could happen as far as I can tell -- it will be a real disaster for this country which is worn out after the last year and a half.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

And I think that is the thinking behind the new policy in the UK. I think the logic is something like -- 1. When the population had little immunity and the death rate was high, that may justify using costly and destructive measures on a short term basis, because otherwise the death rate will be unacceptable; 2. But when the population has a high degree of immunity the justification for costly measures is weaker, and we should rather carry on with normal life without an unacceptable death rate, perhaps protecting the vulnerable (a la Great Barrington).

I'm not saying whether I agree with it, and certainly Part 1 of that logic did not bring any noticeably good results, but I think this is the thinking behind the policy. In any case, I really hope for the best in the UK. The Brits deserve a break. The Brits have had one of the worst experiences with this pandemic of any nation, having experienced both high infection and death rates and very destructive and burdensome restrictions. I really hope they've turned the corner now. If this DOESN'T work, and the UK feels itself forced to go back into hard measures -- which certainly could happen as far as I can tell -- it will be a real disaster for this country which is worn out after the last year and a half.

When “Freedom Day” occurred in England mid July I posted this comment:

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

All eyes will be on England at the moment, as if successful their strategy is likely to be followed or at least considered by countries with similar or better vaccination rates.

Although I am no longer cruising in Northern Europe, I am still keeping an eagle eye on numbers released daily for hospitalisations and deaths in the UK. They are edging up, but still relatively low compared to the number of detected cases.

The good thing is that it now seems that immunity post infection is actually higher than post vaccination. It is higher still when both have occurred. I think eventually everyone (vaccinated or not) will end up contracting this virus and a high degree of immunity will be conferred.

In my view, allowing life and economies to get back on their feet as soon as possible while keeping hospitalisations and deaths low until everyone is infected is a sensible way of now managing this disease.

SWL

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

When “Freedom Day” occurred in England mid July I posted this comment:

Although I am no longer cruising in Northern Europe, I am still keeping an eagle eye on numbers released daily for hospitalisations and deaths in the UK. They are edging up, but still relatively low compared to the number of detected cases.

The good thing is that it now seems that immunity post infection is actually higher than post vaccination. It is higher still when both have occurred. I think eventually everyone (vaccinated or not) will end up contracting this virus and a high degree of immunity will be conferred.

In my view, allowing life and economies to get back on their feet as soon as possible while keeping hospitalisations and deaths low until everyone is infected is a sensible way of now managing this disease.

SWL

Having Freedom Day right in the middle of a wave of infections seemed to many like madness. But instead of an explosion of infections, the wave subsided.



Now infections are rising again, as are hospitalizations. Will they rise enough to cause another u-turn?


All eyes on the UK indeed.

[goboatingnow]

I’m grateful living as I do within an hour of the land border with the U.K, that this experiment is ongoing, I wish the U.K. well. My main concern is that the decisions were driven by Tory party zealots rather then good medical advice

Everyone wants out of this. I think most European countries like Ireland are going to be quite cautious over the next few months. Interestingly here the gov has come out to say that NPHET ( national public health emergency team ) which has basically being taking all the decisions will be retired in the coming months.

We just passed 86% of all adults ( >16) fully vaccinated And 60% of the 12-16 cohort are now vaccinated 58,000 will be done this weekend alone.

We have an embarrassing amount of vaccines in storage so much so that another 1million will be given to Covax next week

[goboatingnow]

I used my COVID QR three times today alone ? I see the EU figures this program will wind down middle of next year ( ie the backend EU database )

[Dockhead]

Denmark has just announced they will start phasing out covid passes for getting into restaurants, theatres, public events, etc. They have now fully vaccinated 80% of the adult population and aim to pass 90% before the end of September. They reason that the passes become superfluous with that level of immunity.

Wow, hats off to them. I guess vaccine hesitancy is not much of a factor there.

[boatman61]

EU has just closed its borders again for non essential travel from the USA...

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Headlines sell papers .

Despite relatively high case numbers in Scotland, the article also reports that there are only 507 cases in hospital with COVID-19. In addition, the article states that when asked if restrictions were likely to be reintroduced, Professor Bauld (professor of public health at the University of Edinburgh) said she did not see that as a likely outcome:

"I think things would have to get a lot worse in terms of hospital capacity for that to occur and I don’t see that on the immediate horizon despite there being some challenges in some areas."

It seems so many of us are still consumed with fear regarding this new virus, despite a very high percentage of the population having antibodies to this new virus (94% in the UK) and despite the relatively low deaths now occurring in areas where most of the vulnerable are fully vaccinated.

The current risks if infected with SARS-CoV-2 need to be put into perspective. On average over 600,000 were dying in the UK yearly prior to the pandemic. We do not live in fear from every other cause of death that we are at risk of, even the infectious ones such as influenza. We face risks daily, many of which we choose not to mitigate. In my view, the fear now surrounding this disease is not proportional to risk.

SWL

Yep, headlines sell papers and broad swipes in postss troll readers.


Do you really think that someone who disagrees with your somewhat lasse faire approach to Covid is "consumed with fear"?
I'm in an area this week where the hospital just shut off voluntary surgeries as the covid side of the hospital is overflowing. My grandkid is in her third week of kindergarten and so far each week a student has been quarantined with covid symptoms and a positive test. My boat is 9,000 miles away and I need a clear PCR test next week to board a plane back to the boat.
Being reasonably cautious and agreeing with government rules that make others around me reasonably cautious is not being consumed with fear. Cherry picking parts of the world at specific times and declaring see all is good, is downplaying the reality of Covid and the delta variant and the follow on variants.

[boatman61]

Well the thread is titled Northern Europe during Pandemic.. not USA.
Just because the outlook over here does not match your situation its you doing the cherry picking, things here have stabilised and life is nearly back to normal with bars, cafes and restaurants open and mask wearing outside up to the individual.. hospitals are not overloaded and out patients treatments are normal, to be honest they've never stopped.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

. . . In my view, allowing life and economies to get back on their feet as soon as possible while keeping hospitalisations and deaths low until everyone is infected is a sensible way of now managing this disease.. .

In any case, we can't formulate an idea of policy without knowing what we are aiming for -- what is the goal?


Here is a superbly nuanced piece on exactly this question, from today's NYT:


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/o...id-policy.html


No answers, just a lot of questions. But really penchant, really relevant ones.


It's a warning not to fail to think about these things.

[CatNewBee]

New scary variant on the way from South Africa. C.1.2.

many mutations, likely to escape antibodies...

[boatman61]

A new Covid variant which has been branded the 'most mutated so far' may already be extinct, it was claimed today.

Concerns were raised that the mutant strain — dubbed C.1.2 — could be more infectious than other variants and better able to evade vaccines.

But experts said today there was no sign the mutant strain had managed to gain a foothold in South Africa — where it was first identified — or any other country.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/health/med...?ocid=msedgntp