Northern Europe during Pandemic -- Summers 2020 & 2021 & onwards

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by GordMay

This appears, to me, suspiciously like the product of "motivated" reasoning - adjust the scientific standard, to get the sociopolitical result desired.

Sure. But it's a policy, not scientific question, so it's appropriate to make a judgement. It's not a "scientific standard" -- it's a policy threshhold value.

Previously to be free of the self-isolation etc. rules you needed to come from a country with less than about 25 daily cases per million, averaged over the previous two weeks. In the autumn most of our region was like that. Now most of our region is slightly above that, but that's still a ridiculously low level of infection and now already all of the vulnerable in Denmark have been vaccinated and the death rate is negligible. They are eager to get travel back to normal as there are a lot of bad social and economic effects from the restrictions, and the risks are already much less.

So in my view it's good policy coming not a moment too soon.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Dockhead, thanks for the Danish information. I have struggled finding updates on travel restrictions for any of the Baltic countries and Faroe islands. It is good to see restrictions easing now that vaccination of the vulnerable is nearly completed in Europe (at least first doses, which in themselves offer a high level of protection from severe disease).

Here in Scotland travel restrictions are about to alter on Monday 17th May:
https://www.gov.scot/publications/co...and-transport/

“At present, international travel to or from Scotland (other than to and from the rest of the UK, Channel Islands and the Isle of Man) without a reasonable excuse is prohibited by law.

International travel from 17 May:
When Level 2 and lower measures are in place, which for most of Scotland will be 17 May, the current restrictions on non-essential international travel will be removed, other than to/from any areas in Scotland that are in Level 3* or Level 4, except for a permitted reason.
(* Depending on the state of the epidemic in Moray, that local authority area may be in Level 3 from 17 May.)
While that means non-essential international travel will no longer be unlawful, it does not mean it is advisable.
The Scottish Government will introduce a risk assessment for international travel similar to the UK Government’s existing ‘traffic light’ system.
This will entail the following requirements for both residents of Scotland on their return and overseas visitors:
- arrivals from red list countries will be required to enter a managed isolation hotel and stay there for 10 days. Travel to such countries should only be for essential reasons.
- arrivals from amber list countries, which will be the majority of countries, should self-isolate at home [or if a visitor from another country, their accommodation on arrival] for 10 days, and take two PCR tests while they are isolating.
- arrivals from green list countries will not be required to quarantine or isolate on arrival in Scotland, but will need to take a PCR test shortly after arrival.”

[Paul L]

It will be interesting to see how these more liberal pandemic policies work out. To me it seems a bit premature and perhaps a bit self congratulating. Look at what is happening over in S, SE Asia and the Seychelles. Countries with high vaccine rates are having serious troubles - as well as ones very low rates. Even Singapore, an early golden example of good pandemic management with a high vaccine rate (using Pfizer and Moderna) has just gone into some of its toughest restrictions yet.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Paul L

It will be interesting to see how these more liberal pandemic policies work out. To me it seems a bit premature and perhaps a bit self congratulating. Look at what is happening over in S, SE Asia and the Seychelles. Countries with high vaccine rates are having serious troubles - as well as ones very low rates. Even Singapore, an early golden example of good pandemic management with a high vaccine rate (using Pfizer and Moderna) has just gone into some of its toughest restrictions yet.

I think at this stage we need to accept this virus is endemic and learn to live with it. Cases rising in vaccinated populations due to variants is, in my opinion, less of a concern. Severe illness would be of great concern. Is this actually occurring anywhere?

I think we need to keep this illness in perspective. Influenza deaths averaged over a year in past years have been around 60 daily here. Average daily COVID-19 deaths over the last week in the UK is down to 10 from 1200+ at the peak and around 54% of the total population has now received at least one dose of vaccine. All the vulnerable have been offered two doses. Why shouldn’t the UK open up to other countries with similar COVID statistics? This is not “self congratulating” (although the UK has much to be proud about regarding the execution of its vaccination program), but getting on with living.

I am not advocating dropping all restrictions, but some point we do need to “get out from under the doona”.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

I think at this stage we need to accept this virus is endemic and learn to live with it. Cases rising in vaccinated populations due to variants is, in my opinion, less of a concern. Severe illness would be of great concern. Is this actually occurring anywhere?

I think we need to keep this illness in perspective. Influenza deaths averaged over a year in past years have been around 60 daily here. Average daily COVID-19 deaths over the last week in the UK is down to 10 from 1200+ at the peak and around 54% of the total population has now received at least one dose of vaccine. All the vulnerable have been offered two doses. Why shouldn’t the UK open up to other countries with similar COVID statistics? This is not “self congratulating” (although the UK has much to be proud about regarding the execution of its vaccination program), but getting on with living.

I am not advocating dropping all restrictions, but some point we do need to “get out from under the doona”.

The flu comparison would be more reasonable if it also overwhelmed hospitals, but in recent history it hasn't.
Two of the most vaccinated countries in the world, Seychelles and Maldives, are experiencing very high new case counts and severe pressure on their hospital systems. I'm not sure what a doona is, but at this point I'm all for steering clear of it. If restrictions are telaxed too quickly, then countries that did really well either by good management or by luck maynot experience good luck going forward. If a country like Singapore feels the need to relockdown after the success they've had and the vaccine rate they have, then I'd say its a warning to go slow.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Paul L

.... I'm not sure what a doona is, but at this point I'm all for steering clear of it.....

Doona = duvet = comforter = eiderdown quilt.

A vital piece of bedding in a Northern European country .

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Paul L

The flu comparison would be more reasonable if it also overwhelmed hospitals, but in recent history it hasn't.

Is 2018 recent enough?
The flu epidemic has certainly overwhelmed hospitals in numerous countries recently, including the US and Canada and the UK:
eg:
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-h...-flu-patients/

https://www.ciphi.on.ca/knowledge-ce...8-surge-in-flu

I am not comparing the entire COVID-19 pandemic to a bad influenza year, but it is certainly way better than this now in some countries, yet harsh restrictions are still in place.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Is 2018 recent enough?
The flu epidemic has certainly overwhelmed hospitals in numerous countries recently, including the US and Canada and the UK:
eg:
https://time.com/5107984/hospitals-h...-flu-patients/

https://www.ciphi.on.ca/knowledge-ce...8-surge-in-flu

I am not comparing the entire COVID-19 pandemic to a bad influenza year, but it is certainly way better than this now in some countries, yet harsh restrictions are still in place.

Thanks for the doona explanation. The other night it got so cold here I had to put a sheet halfway over me. 50 miles south of the equator.

Not sure the flu tents setup at the ERs really compares to the overflowing ICU and crit care. But your point is taken.
But being good now in a country does not mean it will stay good. Too many current examples of it going downhill quickly. Europe is not isolated from Asia. Reasonable lightening up of restrictions makes sense, but don't sell it to people like this is going to stay in place. Make it real clear that the restrictions will be dialed up and down in the future.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Doona = duvet = comforter = eiderdown quilt.

A vital piece of bedding in a Northern European country .

I've just bought Danish hand made down duvets and covers. Both winter and summer duvets. The Danes sleep in double beds under dual single duvets. Not sure how that works, but I'm trying it. In any case, their bedding is as exquisite as it is costly. Obviously a big priority in their society.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I've just bought Danish hand made down duvets and covers. Both winter and summer duvets. The Danes sleep in double beds under dual single duvets. Not sure how that works, but I'm trying it. In any case, their bedding is as exquisite as it is costly. Obviously a big priority in their society.

The Danes must like sleeping independently . I wouldn’t enjoy that at all, but I just Googled it and individual duvets seem to be popular throughout Scandinavia.

They have their priorities right otherwise. Down duvets in general are the bee’s knees. 100% down with no feather content is so lightweight that it is just heavenly to sleep under. We have both winter and summer versions too. King size for snuggling under though, not singles .

[fxykty]

How to open up to the rest of the world is a question for every country, but it is a particularly difficult decision for those countries, and their governments, where they’ve successfully followed a Covid elimination strategy, such as New Zealand and Australia.

Elimination strategy means that every death due to/accompanied by Covid is a failure, and very strict lockdowns and restrictions are used whenever a community case appears.

How to pivot to an endemic strategy and treat it like flu (500 or so deaths a year in New Zealand), after over a year of messaging that zero additional deaths is the goal?

New Zealand’s director of health last week mused that opening up to the world, once the entire population is vaccinated, would mean living with a permanent state of restrictions on public gatherings and some activities. This, after the last 6 months of basically unrestricted life (with an essentially closed border). The next day the prime minister quickly walked back the director of health’s “musings”, but then wouldn’t answer the follow up questions about whether restrictions would be needed even if the population is vaccinated. To call it a political poisoned chalice is an understatement.

How does a country pivot from elimination to endemic?

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by fxykty

How to open up to the rest of the world is a question for every country, but it is a particularly difficult decision for those countries, and their governments, where they’ve successfully followed a Covid elimination strategy, such as New Zealand and Australia.

Elimination strategy means that every death due to/accompanied by Covid is a failure, and very strict lockdowns and restrictions are used whenever a community case appears.

How to pivot to an endemic strategy and treat it like flu (500 or so deaths a year in New Zealand), after over a year of messaging that zero additional deaths is the goal?

New Zealand’s director of health last week mused that opening up to the world, once the entire population is vaccinated, would mean living with a permanent state of restrictions on public gatherings and some activities. This, after the last 6 months of basically unrestricted life (with an essentially closed border). The next day the prime minister quickly walked back the director of health’s “musings”, but then wouldn’t answer the follow up questions about whether restrictions would be needed even if the population is vaccinated. To call it a political poisoned chalice is an understatement.

How does a country pivot from elimination to endemic?

Australia is another country that has backed itself into a corner.
We have a PM who was jumping up and down when states closed borders against each other who is now insisting that our international borders stay closed for another 12 months, or at least until after he is re-elected.

I'm more inclined to go with this bloke.
'Australia’s former deputy chief medical officer has challenged doctors to smash the “false idol” of COVID-19 eradication and prepare the public for the next critical phase of the pandemic: open international borders and the return of the virus in the community.'


https://www.theage.com.au/national/f...14-p57s1u.html

[arsenelupiga]

Originally Posted by El Pinguino

Australia is another country that has backed itself into a corner.
We have a PM who was jumping up and down when states closed borders against each other who is now insisting that our international borders stay closed for another 12 months, or at least until after he is re-elected.

I'm more inclined to go with this bloke.
'Australia’s former deputy chief medical officer has challenged doctors to smash the “false idol” of COVID-19 eradication and prepare the public for the next critical phase of the pandemic: open international borders and the return of the virus in the community.'


https://www.theage.com.au/national/f...14-p57s1u.html

you ever wondered why price of your boat is gone up? Why property bubble although less humans created and no human influx.

HYPERINFLATION

That is the gift of corona, by design. if you have assets you should be okay if not like younger generation then you have pissed youth that has been robbed of future.

that is the problem that cnt get resolved. Plan to get hard on youth to shut them up will not work.

[Seaworthy Lass]

Originally Posted by Paul L

Two of the most vaccinated countries in the world, Seychelles and Maldives, are experiencing very high new case counts and severe pressure on their hospital systems.

Hi Paul
I chased this up and although case numbers have risen for vaccinated people in the Seychelles, they are certainly not putting “severe pressure on their hospital systems”:

“Almost none of the critical and severe cases requiring intensive care had been vaccinated, and no one who has been vaccinated has died of Covid-19.
Radegonde said Thursday that only two people in the country are in intensive care.
"The conclusion is that the vaccines are protecting the people. Those who have been vaccinated are not developing any complications," Radegonde said. "We remain confident that the vaccines -- both of them -- have helped the country. Things would have been worse." ”

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/14/a...dst/index.html

With all the variants that have cropped up worldwide, despite all the fears that the vaccines would be ineffective against severe illness, this has not been the case.

With lack of any evidence to the contrary, we should not be overreacting. Healthy young people have only been very rarely severely affected throughout this pandemic, and now that there is no longer the same association between the infection and severe illness for the vaccinated (including all the vulnerable elderly) I think we should continue to cautiously relax restrictions and get back to living near normally. We have far greater problems existing if we want to focus on health issues.

[Paul L]

Originally Posted by Seaworthy Lass

Hi Paul
I chased this up and although case numbers have risen for vaccinated people in the Seychelles, they are certainly not putting “severe pressure on their hospital systems”:

“Almost none of the critical and severe cases requiring intensive care had been vaccinated, and no one who has been vaccinated has died of Covid-19.
Radegonde said Thursday that only two people in the country are in intensive care.
"The conclusion is that the vaccines are protecting the people. Those who have been vaccinated are not developing any complications," Radegonde said. "We remain confident that the vaccines -- both of them -- have helped the country. Things would have been worse." ”

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/05/14/a...dst/index.html

With all the variants that have cropped up worldwide, despite all the fears that the vaccines would be ineffective, this has not been the case.

With lack of any evidence to the contrary, we should not be overreacting. Healthy young people have only been very rarely severely affected throughout this pandemic, and now that there is no longer the same association between the infection and severe illness for the vaccinated (including all the vulnerable elderly) I think we should continue to cautiously relax restrictions and get back to living near normally. We have far greater problems existing if we want to focus on health issues.

The Seychelles is experiencing a heavy load on their health care system. They have 2,700 active cases in a population of 100,000. That is why they went back to strong restrictions on the populace. The hospital admissions currently consist of 20% fully vaccinated and 80% with one or zero doses.
The Maldives is in a similar situation with very high vaccine rates , almost as much as the Seychelles, and over loaded hospitals. You can't paint these two situations as good unless you are wearing rose coloured glasses. They aren't.
The quote from the Seychelles MOH sounds happy when they say we should relax restrictions, but they did exactly the opposite and significantly increased restrictions. There is an inherent conflict in the Seychelles with the fact they opened the country for all tourism, and don't want to scare off the money, so they talk happy. But in the last week they have added new restrictions for tourists entry too.

Singapore is also going back to lockdown restrictions after having been in excellent shape for many months.