Covid 19 Struggle: Southern California

[S/V Illusion]

Originally Posted by Lake-Effect

What are the fundamental flaws? Did you read those links I've posted earlier, from the LA Times? Apparently not.

CA is kind of unique because of its dependence on large numbers of low-paid agricultural labourers, many of whom aren't documented. Kind of a catch-22; they can't eat if they don't work. And they're deemed essential workers.

If you're suggesting that overall, compliance in CA is as poor as elsewhere in the US, as often mentioned on CF... I'm not in a position to disagree.

btw, what is your point?

Ca isn’t unique in terms of illegal or migrant workers. You might want to expand your knowledge based beyond one ca newspaper. My point being nothing you described makes Ca unique other than the number of and rate of increase in Covid cases. There can be only one rational explanation.

[Lake-Effect]

I'll bite. What's the only rational explanation?

[davil]

Originally Posted by Starfish 2018

Does anyone find it ironic that we don't even have a vaccine for the common flu? Nor is there one for AIDS? Masks are not the answer, they are now the problem. The solution is now worse than the virus itself. It's simple math folks, the more testing we do the more we will find, HOWEVER, 90% of the folks that are testing positive are without symptoms, how do you explain that? I will tell you: Hospitals and states are making BANK just by saying the numbers are increasing. I was talking to a group of nurses over the weekend at a local hospital that are making "Covid Dollars" of $100.00 of hour in any overtime they are doing as long as the hours are marked Covid 19. The simple adage of follow the money has never been more evident than it is right now.

Many states that are in lock-down with mask orders have still NOT gotten to the death rate of 2019 and the common flu! This is a made up emergency for one simple reason.

I appreciate all the responses from everyone, what breaks my heart is all the folks that have bought into this madness and the total destruction it has caused all the hard working people of this great country! It's shameful to say the least. Oh and by the way, I lost my 87 year old mother in May, she was in a retirement home, had a severe case of Alzheimers and was just OLD. Of course the cause of death was Covid, didn't matter how much my brothers and sisters argued with he hospital, they were not going to change it. $$$$ went to them!! It's outrageous and sad.

==========================================
points of interest


Alzheimer in itself is not cause of death


Old age is not a cause of death


Most of the other comments are opinions and you are entitled to your opinions,they don't make it facts.
Also reading your previous postings is not my idea of intellectual engagement to be draw into arguing with you however thought might be of interest to other members.





Common Flu and Covid statistics as presented by Hopkins (facts)





Source


https://covidusa.net/?autorefresh=1

Flu Comparison

Some people say COVID-19 is like the flu, is it?

The 10-year average of about 28,645,000 flu cases per year has a 1.6% hospitalization rate and a 0.13% mortality rate. Unfortunately, CV19 is currently 13 times more deadly at 1.7% with a 20% overall hospitalization rate. If there were 28,645,000 cases...

Flu Hospitalizations
458,320
Total


CV19 Hospitalizations
5,729,000
Total



Flu Deaths
37,239
Total


CV19 Deaths
486,965
Total

[davil]

sorry for your loss

[Capn Jimbo]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Firstly, that’s a very small metric you’ve chosen, for comparison. Only China, India, and the USA have populations exceeding 300 million. I’ll leave it to others, to judge their relative levels of personal freedom, but China came closest to “nailing it”.
Only Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, and Nigeria have populations of over (even) 200 million.
In my (only somewhat informed) opinion, none of them (3 or 7) got it even nearly right, at the beginning of the pandemic, or even of the second wave.
In fact, I believe only a very few countries came close to getting it right.
New Zealand (tiny island nation) would be among those few, we might hold up as a, better, but imperfect, model.
➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...my-243934.html

Gord, thanks for your many and informative posts. Speaking as a professional, let me try to address a few things.

A Public Health Perspective:

1. The size of a country - in and of itself - is not very relevant. Keep in mind there is always a first, single case (or very few cases), which then multiply. This no matter the size of the country.

2. Far, far more important is early and very aggressive, multi-faceted responses from the first cases that appear. TTQ (test, trace and quarantine). With such a response, the virus' numbers are kept small and controllable.

3. Thus both a small country and a large country begin the same, and can keep the virus under good control.

Let's also do away with the notion that there is even such a thing as a "perfect response". No such thing. There are literally thousands of possible responses that can be assembled in literally millions of combinations.

These combinations are actually scored from 0 (no response) to 100 (maximum) with most falling in between 40 and 70. The combinations literally change daily, as do the scores.

Thus there is no "perfect" response, but it all goes well if you start early, and aggressively. There will always be spikes and surges (you can forget about the term "waves" also), as a person may take the virus to another area.

Hope that helps...


CJ
Public Health, 30 years

[davil]

yes

very comprehensive
and very

very helpful
thank you for taking the time
David

[Steve DAntonio]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Firstly, that’s a very small metric you’ve chosen, for comparison. but China came closest to “nailing it”.

My point exactly, you can't offer up how NZ (another island nation that can easily control its borders) reacted to covid, it's simply not a valid comparison. Big nations are very hard to control, and big free nations even harder.

China? Have you ever been there? I travel there regularly, a fascinating country and people, every trip is an adventure and learning experience for me, but very little information enters or leaves that country without the approval of the CCP. 'Nuff said.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Steve DAntonio

My point exactly, you can't offer up how NZ (another island nation that can easily control its borders) reacted to covid, it's simply not a valid comparison. Big nations are very hard to control, and big free nations even harder.

It seems like you're reaching around for reasons to justify or excuse ourselves for not doing better with this. Most countries were slow off the blocks despite several weeks of warning, and some countries were knocked over even though they had pandemic planning in place and lots of resources.

Maybe it's not yet quite within our grasp to contain new pandemics. But we came so close... and there definitely were errors and omissions in the execution of what plans we had. Creating effective vaccines in under a year is amazing. Willl the the next pandemic be the one we finally stop early?

[MrZhdens]

Originally Posted by Steve DAntonio

My point exactly, you can't offer up how NZ (another island nation that can easily control its borders) reacted to covid, it's simply not a valid comparison. Big nations are very hard to control, and big free nations even harder.

China? Have you ever been there? I travel there regularly, a fascinating country and people, every trip is an adventure and learning experience for me, but very little information enters or leaves that country without the approval of the CCP. 'Nuff said.

China is more than just a fascinating country! I am in love with their culture.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by roverhi

Distribution of the vaccine is a major problem in CA. As of right now even Tier 1A first line medical personnel are not getting vaccine. My Dentist and Doctor are still on a wait list with no indication when it will be available to them. I'm over 75 with a couple of co-morbidities, my wife is severely immune compromised yet we can find no information on how or where to get the vaccine when it becomes available or how to get on a list for notification when it's available. This while a significant number of tier 1A eligible are not electing to get vaccinated so their should be a surplus of the vaccine.

There was a thread a month or so ago where there was a lot of discussion on prioritizing the vaccine.

It's interesting to compare that to the reality.
- It appears there may have been too much emphasis on sticking strictly to the priority scheme. Now as some of the rules are relaxing, the daily vaccine distribution is rapidly increasing.
- Israel is by far in the lead but they have a much different scenario. Being a small relatively rich country, they are projected to have enough vaccine for the entire population by the end of March. As a result, they are just jabbing anyone they get at with a needle. For countries that have a more limited supply (relative to population), some form of prioritization is still important. The vast majority of countries are not able to follow Israel's approach because there simply isn't enough production yet.
- There was discussion that countries with a socialized medical system would be at a big advantage. Looking at the data so far, it's all over the map in terms of how well they are distributing. Most countries have had snafus and hiccups. If you want to call out a loser, it's France with a whopping 500 jabs in the first week of mass vaccinations.

In the big picture, I think the vaccine response has been a huge win for the world.
- Vaccines typically take 10yrs or more to be developed and reach the market.
- Even at a highly accelerated pace, expectations were 2-3yrs for a 50-70% effective vaccine. At 10months we have not multiple vaccines going into peoples arms by the millions with at least a couple in the 95% effective range.
- Sure there have been some hiccups at the start but countries are quickly sorting those out. The USA is close to 1 million jabs per day now. With an exponential growth pattern early in an endeavor like this, early goals are often off by huge amounts. 3 months in, the difference from projections will be much smaller (in percentage terms)

[Buzzman]

As someone living in Australia, and observing the rest of the world "by comparison", I can readily concur that "going hard, going early" (to paraphrase the Pardeys) has been an effective strategy - provided it is followed up by TTQ (test, trace, quarantine).
We adopted smilar strategies here in Oz, after a few unfortunate early hiccups (Ruby Princess ring any bells) and, apart from quarantine breaches, especially from aircraft crew more recently, we have "by and large" kept the lid on outbreaks and prevented these getting much above the 1.0 R-factor.
I live in a regional area that has had only two known cases since March, and we've had lots of tourist activity over Xmas/Jan, so we are quietly expecting an 'outbreak' of sorts come February. Fngers crossed, but it's not an unreasonable expectation.
It's equally clear from even the regional variations in success rates here in Oz (Victoria was an early casualty where strict lockdowns and curfews eventually turned rates around) that ALL measures are important.
Mask wearing appears to have some efficacy, but 'social distancing' probably has a greater effect, and preventing cross-border travel State to State (as has been happening here on and off) also seems reasonable as each State's health system struggles to prevent outbreaks.
All I can conclude is that we in Oz were very fortunate to have had the leadership we've had here (ditto NZ).
Having said that, it appears also clear that, wherever numbers eased and restrictions on movement eased, there too went the virus - hence the so-called second and third waves.
It would appear that, until herd immunity vaccination levels are achieved, we need to maintain on-again, off-again, restrictions QUICKLY, along with local travel restrictions, to minimise community transfer and larger outbreaks.
A recent outbreak on Sydney's Northern Beaches was quickly nipped in the bud by restricting certain suburbs to a much greater extent than the rest of the city, and even nearby suburbs. Such 'narrow' restrictions meant elsewhere in the cirty, and the rest of the State, life went on as (new) normal.

Had this type of tighly controlled "management" been implemented earlier, the actual damage (health and economic) in the whole country might have been lessser than what eventuated with the panic lockdowns of the entire country.
It's also clear that ALL incoming travellers should have been quarantined, including aircrew, and that workers in quarantine facilities should have been tested daily, to further limit esacpe into the community of the virus.
No doubt all of these 'learnings' will be researched more accurately than my ad hoc 'wet thumb' pronunciations in the near future, and hopefully ALL countries can then learn from the behaviours of those who had greater success in 'managing' the pandemic response.
But I agree, no-one has got it totally right, and perhaps such an expectation is itself unrealistic.

[slegg]

Originally Posted by Capn Jimbo

Gord, thanks for your many and informative posts. Speaking as a professional, let me try to address a few things.

A Public Health Perspective:

1. The size of a country - in and of itself - is not very relevant. Keep in mind there is always a first, single case (or very few cases), which then multiply. This no matter the size of the country.

2. Far, far more important is early and very aggressive, multi-faceted responses from the first cases that appear. TTQ (test, trace and quarantine). With such a response, the virus' numbers are kept small and controllable.

3. Thus both a small country and a large country begin the same, and can keep the virus under good control.

Let's also do away with the notion that there is even such a thing as a "perfect response". No such thing. There are literally thousands of possible responses that can be assembled in literally millions of combinations.

These combinations are actually scored from 0 (no response) to 100 (maximum) with most falling in between 40 and 70. The combinations literally change daily, as do the scores.

Thus there is no "perfect" response, but it all goes well if you start early, and aggressively. There will always be spikes and surges (you can forget about the term "waves" also), as a person may take the virus to another area.

Hope that helps...


CJ
Public Health, 30 years

Here in Brasil, we´ve had a little over 200,000 deaths till january 15. No one had a chance to respond apropriatelly to this disease because it was hidden by China for two months while China let everyone travel back to their countries to spread the disease. The truth is that few people knows this disease after ten months. A brazilian researcher named Campelo found out through statiscal analisys that the time between been infected and actually get sick is 41 days. That early treatment saves lives and don´t let hospitals be overwhelmed. I bought ivermectina, hidroxicloroquina and astromicina in may. In the event of been infected I´ll start the medication at once, at the first simptoms of the disease. Wait till you need a hospital kills. I´m seventy one years old, with hypertension, diabettis melittus II, and 20 kilos overweighted. Well into the group of risk. I started home office in the first days of may and went back to presencial work in january fourth. I feel I was much more prepared to get ill in may. Personally I don´t believe in lockdown. US has some good examples of the results of lockdown, as CA and NY and at least one good example of social distancement in Florida. The lockdown was adopted to not to overwhelm hospitals till they were prepared to deal with the epidemic. Another thing that Campelo noticed on his research was that four weeks after lockdown there were peaks of infection and increase of deaths among infecteds. Finishing, I´m a civil engineer and I learned to think at college. I´d rather have the facts on the news than editorials, and by the way, the media is doing whatever they can to spread panic and fear. And that´s an observation also.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by Buzzman

As someone living in Australia, and observing the rest of the world "by comparison", I can readily concur that "going hard, going early" (to paraphrase the Pardeys) has been an effective strategy - provided it is followed up by TTQ (test, trace, quarantine) ...
... But I agree, no-one has got it totally right, and perhaps such an expectation is itself unrealistic.

Indeed.

[ol1970]

Originally Posted by Steve DAntonio

My point exactly, you can't offer up how NZ (another island nation that can easily control its borders) reacted to covid, it's simply not a valid comparison. Big nations are very hard to control, and big free nations even harder.

China? Have you ever been there? I travel there regularly, a fascinating country and people, every trip is an adventure and learning experience for me, but very little information enters or leaves that country without the approval of the CCP. 'Nuff said.

I travel to China quite often, not since the pandemic started though. My lifelong friends just took work assignments in Shanghai and moved their in September. They absolutely have nailed it. Their are no restrictions, no mask mandates, no business closures. He FaceTimed me while walking downtown, life is 99.9% back to normal there. If anyone tells you otherwise they are misinformed.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by slegg

Here in Brasil, we´ve had a little over 200,000 deaths till january 15. No one had a chance to respond apropriatelly to this disease because it was hidden by China for two months while China let everyone travel back to their countries to spread the disease. The truth is that few people knows this disease after ten months. A brazilian researcher named Campelo found out through statiscal analisys that the time between been infected and actually get sick is 41 days. That early treatment saves lives and don´t let hospitals be overwhelmed. I bought ivermectina, hidroxicloroquina and astromicina in may. In the event of been infected I´ll start the medication at once, at the first simptoms of the disease. Wait till you need a hospital kills. I´m seventy one years old, with hypertension, diabettis melittus II, and 20 kilos overweighted. Well into the group of risk. I started home office in the first days of may and went back to presencial work in january fourth. I feel I was much more prepared to get ill in may. Personally I don´t believe in lockdown. US has some good examples of the results of lockdown, as CA and NY and at least one good example of social distancement in Florida. The lockdown was adopted to not to overwhelm hospitals till they were prepared to deal with the epidemic. Another thing that Campelo noticed on his research was that four weeks after lockdown there were peaks of infection and increase of deaths among infecteds. Finishing, I´m a civil engineer and I learned to think at college. I´d rather have the facts on the news than editorials, and by the way, the media is doing whatever they can to spread panic and fear. And that´s an observation also.

theres so much wrong with this post that I can't don't even know where to start
a collection of half truths , hearsay and mis information bubbled in a furnace of political bias

as a start , heres a comment from a reviewed study in eh Lancet , one of the most respected in its field

"


However, multiple high-quality studies subsequently showed no benefit of hydroxychloroquine use as post-exposure prophylaxis3 or as a COVID-19 treatment.4, 5
......
Additionally, no difference was seen in non-COVID-19 mortality associated with hydroxychloroquine use.
.......
These findings are not surprising given the mounting body of literature suggesting no clinical benefit for hydroxychloroquine use against COVID-19."

SOurce https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...390-8/fulltext