War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

So either way, you vote not much affect on med cruising this summer?

I do. No effect at all, actually, but for possibly increased fuel prices, but we were going to get that anyway with inflation starting up.


Both the U.S. and NATO have explicitly ruled out a military response to any Russian invasion of Ukraine. See: https://globelivemedia.com/world/nat...ck-on-ukraine/.


We will sit on the sidelines and scold. Life will go on as usual, where we are.

[boatman61]

Well I doubt Putin's too worried about the EU Army..
By the time Brussels decides what to do and who should be in command he'll be dining at Le Cinq or Le Meurice..

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Well I doubt Putin's too worried about the EU Army..

By the time Brussels decides what to do and who should be in command he'll be dining at Le Cinq or Le Meurice..

Yeah Hitler had the same experience. He cut through Europe like a knife through butter. Still, we don’t hear much from him anymore.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I disagree. "Unity shown by NATO and Ukraine"? What unity? NATO has specifically ruled out military action. Ukraine means nothing to NATO except as a means to tweak Russia's nose, and are unwilling to do anything significant to defend Ukraine. There is zero unity except rhetoric. Today Finland even publicly stopped arms shipments to Ukraine.

I wouldn't rule out economic sanctions, and I wouldn't underestimate them as a valuable deterrent. Invading the Ukraine would be costly for Russia.

The Ukraine having good weapons is also a deterrent.

If it weren't for NATO, the Ukraine would already be occupied by Russia, or ruled by a Russian puppet. As this isn't the case, I'd say that NATO has had some positive effect.

It would be easy enough for NATO to say that the Ukraine can never be a member. But notice that they aren't doing that. And this is what Putin wants. So it's pretty clear that he sees the value of NATO, and is looking for weaknesses that he isn't finding.

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

I wouldn't rule out economic sanctions, and I wouldn't underestimate them as a valuable deterrent. Invading the Ukraine would be costly for Russia.

The Ukraine having good weapons is also a deterrent.

If it weren't for NATO, the Ukraine would already be occupied by Russia, or ruled by a Russian puppet. As this isn't the case, I'd say that NATO has had some positive effect.

It would be easy enough for NATO to say that the Ukraine can never be a member. But notice that they aren't doing that. And this is what Putin wants. So it's pretty clear that he sees the value of NATO, and is looking for weaknesses that he isn't finding.

Agreed. And when we talk about unity among nations it’s really on the economic side rather than the military. I think that’s what Putin realized. That this war might be costly for him personally. He’s got 140 million yacht. Sure would be a shame if anything happened to it…

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

I wouldn't rule out economic sanctions, and I wouldn't underestimate them as a valuable deterrent. Invading the Ukraine would be costly for Russia.

The Ukraine having good weapons is also a deterrent.

If it weren't for NATO, the Ukraine would already be occupied by Russia, or ruled by a Russian puppet. As this isn't the case, I'd say that NATO has had some positive effect.

It would be easy enough for NATO to say that the Ukraine can never be a member. But notice that they aren't doing that. And this is what Putin wants. So it's pretty clear that he sees the value of NATO, and is looking for weaknesses that he isn't finding.

So would you make plans to sail the Aegean next year?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

I wouldn't rule out economic sanctions, and I wouldn't underestimate them as a valuable deterrent. Invading the Ukraine would be costly for Russia.

The Ukraine having good weapons is also a deterrent.

If it weren't for NATO, the Ukraine would already be occupied by Russia, or ruled by a Russian puppet. As this isn't the case, I'd say that NATO has had some positive effect.

It would be easy enough for NATO to say that the Ukraine can never be a member. But notice that they aren't doing that. And this is what Putin wants. So it's pretty clear that he sees the value of NATO, and is looking for weaknesses that he isn't finding.

Russia has been under severe sanctions already since 2014. We can do more -- we can kick Russian banks out of SWIFT, etc. But we can't do anything which would hurt nearly enough to stop the Russians from defending their "red line" against militarization of Ukraine by NATO. And they have been preparing for sanctions. See: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/w...-proofing.html. These preparations are just one more sign of how serious the Russians are about this. This is an existential question for them; sanctions are not going to slow them down.


And what makes you think that but for NATO, Russia would have invaded Ukraine already? Where do you get this? Ukraine is not a NATO member and NATO will never defend Ukraine. It explicitly said that just a couple weeks ago: https://www.voanews.com/a/nato-chief...-/6418679.html


“Ukraine is not a NATO ally,” Stoltenberg told the British BBC, stressing that the “100% security guarantee that an attack on an ally will generate a response from the entire Alliance” does not apply to Kiev.
“We have no plans to deploy combat troops in Ukraine,” said Stoltenberg, who, when asked if he contemplates any scenario in which NATO soldiers could be seen fighting Russian troops in Ukraine, replied “no.”

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

So would you make plans to sail the Aegean next year?

The Aegean is one of my favourite cruising grounds. Would be absolutely fine this year. The only thing I would worry about would be pandemic restrictions, but looks like those will be gone too.

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Russia has been under severe sanctions already since 2014. We can do more -- we can kick Russian banks out of SWIFT, etc. But we can't do anything which would hurt nearly enough to stop the Russians from defending their "red line" against militarization of Ukraine by NATO. And they have been preparing for sanctions. See: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/w...-proofing.html. These preparations are just one more sign of how serious the Russians are about this. This is an existential question for them; sanctions are not going to slow them down.


And what makes you think that but for NATO, Russia would have invaded Ukraine already? Where do you get this? Ukraine is not a NATO member and NATO will never defend Ukraine. It explicitly said that just a couple weeks ago: https://www.voanews.com/a/nato-chief...-/6418679.html


“Ukraine is not a NATO ally,” Stoltenberg told the British BBC, stressing that the “100% security guarantee that an attack on an ally will generate a response from the entire Alliance” does not apply to Kiev.
“We have no plans to deploy combat troops in Ukraine,” said Stoltenberg, who, when asked if he contemplates any scenario in which NATO soldiers could be seen fighting Russian troops in Ukraine, replied “no.”

Agree with most of this for sure. And Biden has indicated the US will not go in alone.

Still, we do love a war. And that may be the calculation Putin made: giving Biden a chance to go to war with the Russians would bolster Biden’s political position.

[dannc]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

Not sure how short such an endeavor would be. The Ukrainians are promising a homegrown insurgency should Putin invade....

The Ukrainians fought a war against the USSR after WWII ended. The rebellion did not end until 1955/56 and was quite bloody. The Soviets would dress as the rebel forces and commit atrocities, kinda like what Russia did when they bombed apartment buildings to blame other groups. Eventually, the Soviets realized their terror methods were not working and focused on infiltrating the rebel forces, which did succeed.

Lets hope Putin is telling the truth that this is all just an exercise. Hopefully, this whole exercise was an attempt to get concessions out of NATO and the EU, which so far, has failed.

Not that anyone paying attention to recent history would be surprised but the current events shows how German energy policy has made them Kow Tow to Putin. Other European countries have been following the German energy path, will they continue to do so?

If they do, Putin won't need to use armed force to take Ukraine.

Later,
Dan

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

. . . when we talk about unity among nations it’s really on the economic side rather than the military. …

Economics is a serious part of this. The EU and Europe had €174 billion in trade of goods, and €28 billion in services, even after sanctions. The EU had foreign direct investment of €311 billion in Russia, and Russia had €136 billion of FDI in the EU. See official EU figures: https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/co...ntries/russia/

Whereas total trade between EU and Ukraine amounted to €43 billion, with negligible FDI, even without sanctions.

Russia is one of Germany's main trading partners, main export markets, and the main energy supplier. Germany is the largest economy in the EU. Ukraine, the poorest country in Europe (GDP 10x less than Russia and GDP per capita almost 3x less) and is meaningless as a trading partner to the EU.

So where is the "unity" with Ukraine? In fact we don't care about Ukraine except as a stick to poke the Russians with, and we are leading them to hell by playing around with them like this, teasing them with NATO membership which will never happen in a million years.

Some good reading on the subject: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/19...ral-illusions/. True this is from a conservative point of view, but these views are not limited according to politics. You see people as politically far apart as Noam Chomsky and Henry Kissinger agreeing about this.

[Tetepare]

I’d expect any invasion to destabilize western currencies, and cause inflation, particularly in Eastern Europe. Hope we don’t find out. I think mankind has wasted enough kids lives.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Russia has been under severe sanctions already since 2014. We can do more -- we can kick Russian banks out of SWIFT, etc. But we can't do anything which would hurt nearly enough to stop the Russians from defending their "red line" against militarization of Ukraine by NATO. And they have been preparing for sanctions. See: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/w...-proofing.html. These preparations are just one more sign of how serious the Russians are about this. This is an existential question for them; sanctions are not going to slow them down.

And what makes you think that but for NATO, Russia would have invaded Ukraine already? Where do you get this? Ukraine is not a NATO member and NATO will never defend Ukraine. It explicitly said that just a couple weeks ago: https://www.voanews.com/a/nato-chief...-/6418679.html

“Ukraine is not a NATO ally,” Stoltenberg told the British BBC, stressing that the “100% security guarantee that an attack on an ally will generate a response from the entire Alliance” does not apply to Kiev.
“We have no plans to deploy combat troops in Ukraine,” said Stoltenberg, who, when asked if he contemplates any scenario in which NATO soldiers could be seen fighting Russian troops in Ukraine, replied “no.”

The Ukraine isn't an existential threat to Russia. Russia are the aggressors. And economic sanctions are effective. Will it stop them from invading? Nobody knows right now.

Russia got sanctions for invading Crimea, which didn't belong to them. Clearly the reaction now would have to be an escalation from there.

There is a lot of bluster (and lies) in Russia's propaganda. Putin has a lot of power, but if he makes the Russian economy worse, it weakens him in the long term. There have been rumors that they want to execute a false flag operation to justify an invasion, but this has already been called out in the media.

Nobody said the Ukraine is a member of NATO. If they were, the conversation would be much different. But why is Russia choosing now to threaten the Ukraine? Is there recent concrete movement towards including them in NATO? I do think it was a mistake on the part of NATO to pretend it was an option. It certainly doesn't enhance the alliance.

[Van Der Beek]

This is an issue created by the Entente a 100 years ago, which is now coming back to bite "us", or rather, the Ukrainians in the ass.

The Germans had the Russians crushed during the Great War. They created a buffer zone between Germany and Russia, and they made the Ukraine independent. Of course, it would have been under German influence today rather the Russian. I don't think that would have been a bad thing, the Ukraine would most likely have been richer today.

Fast forward a 100 years, and the Russians are now fixing to help themselves to the Ukraine, because they know no one will interfere. Didn't bother much when they helped themselves to Crimea either.


Like William Shakespeare said "All the worlds a stage"

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by dannc

. . . Lets hope Putin is telling the truth that this is all just an exercise. Hopefully, this whole exercise was an attempt to get concessions out of NATO and the EU, which so far, has failed.. .

I wish you were right, but Putin alas is lying.

The Russians have a mission which they consider to be a matter of life or death for them, much like what we felt about Soviet forces in Cuba in 1962, and they are willing to do anything to achieve this mission. Which is blocking NATO at the Ukrainian border.

They are trying to force us to recognize this interest and so far are failing. If it doesn't get resolved by diplomacy, Putin will just take what he thinks Russia needs as a matter of life and death. I think you can count on it. He has nothing to gain by backing down. And nothing to lose by going for it (thanks to our position in the negotiations).

There is some chance for diplomacy. President Zelensky of Ukraine, an impressive guy despite his background as a TV star, did say that the attack might come tomorrow (16 February). But Putin made a point of pulling some forces back today, a gesture which is meant to show that there is still a chance. I'm afraid however that we are incapable of taking that chance.