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hedgeworth · 15-02-2022, 08:06

I was thinking about crossing from North America and cruising the Mediterranean this spring. I imagine a war in Ukraine would negatively affect the security situation in the Black Sea. Indeed it sounds like it already has to a certain extent.

What do those there now think the chances are that the chaos might spill over to the Eastern med?

**boatman61** · 15-02-2022, 08:33

There's not going to be a war... unless NATO starts one..
Its just Biden and Boris strutting like a pair of old fighting cocks trying vainly to look heroic and boost their negative ratings..
Boris for partying to much and Biden for achieving zip.
Troops pull back at the end of the exercises and it's.. "Look.. we cowed the Russian Bear" Strut Strut..

I'm taking a boat across from Spain to Greece in March.

**Dockhead** · 15-02-2022, 08:35

To the Eastern Med? Zero.

The Northern Coast of the Black Sea has been problematic for cruisers since 2014. The Western and Southern coasts should be fine.

If it does come to a shooting war in Ukraine, it will be nasty, brutal and short. Probably just a few days, or even hours. It's a bigger mismatch of forces than U.S. vs. Iraq was -- in this case, world's second most powerful military (and no. 1 in tanks and artillery) vs. no. 22 (see: https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php). The West has explicitly ruled out getting involved militarily. It will be very unpleasant for the Ukrainians, but cruisers have nothing to worry about, I think, provided they stay out of the Northern Black Sea.

hedgeworth · 15-02-2022, 08:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by boatman61

There's not going to be a war... unless NATO starts one..

Its just Biden and Boris strutting like a pair of old fighting cocks trying vainly to look heroic and boost their negative ratings..

Boris for partying to much and Biden for achieving zip.

Troops pull back at the end of the exercises and it's.. "Look.. we cowed the Russian Bear" Strut Strut..

I'm taking a boat across from Spain to Greece in March.

I actually sort of agree with that. There’s 130,000 troops there though. He didn’t put them there for no reason.

I think maybe Putin had other plans but underestimated the unity shown by NATO and Ukraine. I think his plan now might be to declare victory and go home

hedgeworth · 15-02-2022, 08:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dockhead

To the Eastern Med? Zero.

The Northern Coast of the Black Sea has been problematic for cruisers since 2014. The Western and Southern coasts should be fine.

If it does come to a shooting war in Ukraine, it will be nasty, brutal and short. Probably just a few days, or even hours. It's a bigger mismatch of forces than U.S. vs. Iraq was -- in this case, world's second most powerful military (and no. 1 in tanks and artillery) vs. no. 22 (see: https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php). The West has explicitly ruled out getting involved militarily. It will be very unpleasant for the Ukrainians, but cruisers have nothing to worry about, I think, provided they stay out of the Northern Black Sea.

Not sure how short such an endeavor would be. The Ukrainians are promising a homegrown insurgency should Putin invade. Those kind of wars take a long time and tend to bleed out in the other countries. If the United States decided to make it a proxy fight the Ukrainian resistance would not lack for materials for a very very long time. I am thinking specifically about the Russian experience in Afghanistan.

Anders · 15-02-2022, 08:44

It would not affect the med but I would not go to the black sea if it kicks off.

hedgeworth · 15-02-2022, 08:48

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anders

It would not affect the med but I would not go to the black sea if it kicks off.

Would Turkey close the Bosporus to the Russians as a NATO Ally?

Anders · 15-02-2022, 08:51

Quote:

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

Would Turkey close the Bosporus to the Russians as a NATO Ally?

Ukraine is not in NATO and NATO will do nothing to help them. They will get intelligence from those than can help but otherwise they are on their own.

Van Der Beek · 15-02-2022, 08:55

I didn't know the EU had decided to leave the Ukrainians to their fate.

But I guess they have no other option. The Germans no longer have a military, the French are the French, the English are on an island, and the Italians are on scooters.

hedgeworth · 15-02-2022, 08:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Anders

Ukraine is not in NATO and NATO will do nothing to help them. They will get intelligence from those than can help but otherwise they are on their own.

The Americans have already sent a butt load of weapons and materials to Ukraine. We have a long proud history of proxy wars. It wouldn’t be enough to stop and invasion I think you are correct there. But we could ship enough weapons there to make the place uninhabitable for generations.

Hell, our participation in World War II started with the lend lease act.

hedgeworth · 15-02-2022, 09:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

The Americans have already sent a butt load of weapons and materials to Ukraine. We have a long proud history of proxy wars. It wouldn’t be enough to stop and invasion I think you are correct there. But we could ship enough weapons there to make the place uninhabitable for generations.

Hell, our participation in World War II started with the lend lease act.

So it turns out that the US spends more on NATO than all the other 29 member nations combined. So I’m not sure if funding would be a problem if the Americans decided to get involved in the name of defending the NATO nations neighboring Ukraine

Jubilee39 · 15-02-2022, 09:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by boatman61

There's not going to be a war... unless NATO starts one..
Its just Biden and Boris strutting like a pair of old fighting cocks trying vainly to look heroic and boost their negative ratings..
Boris for partying to much and Biden for achieving zip.
Troops pull back at the end of the exercises and it's.. "Look.. we cowed the Russian Bear" Strut Strut..

I'm taking a boat across from Spain to Greece in March.

My thoughts exactly, history has repeatedly shown presidents boosting their situation with wars,

**Dockhead** · 15-02-2022, 09:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

I actually sort of agree with that. There’s 130,000 troops there though. He didn’t put them there for no reason.

I think maybe Putin had other plans but underestimated the unity shown by NATO and Ukraine. I think his plan now might be to declare victory and go home

I disagree. "Unity shown by NATO and Ukraine"? What unity? NATO has specifically ruled out military action. Ukraine means nothing to NATO except as a means to tweak Russia's nose, and are unwilling to do anything significant to defend Ukraine. There is zero unity except rhetoric. Today Finland even publicly stopped arms shipments to Ukraine.

A diplomatic solution is still possible -- certainly it would cost us nothing to rule out NATO membership for Ukraine, which will never happen in a million years anyway. For the Russians this is a red line as bright as the red line for Kennedy over Soviet military in Cuba in 1962. We were willing to do anything, including take the world to the brink of nuclear holocaust, to keep the Soviets out of Cuba, and the Russians feel exactly the same way about NATO in Ukraine. There are mutually beneficial deals possible (and beneficial to Ukraine). Since we don't really care, however, it is unlikely we will make one of them.

So my money is on failure of diplomacy resulting in either a quick invasion, maybe surgical seizure of Kiev and neutralization of selected units of the Ukrainian armed forces, decapitation of the current government, installation of a puppet government which then signs treaties with Russia giving veto power over Ukraine's foreign policy decisions. Or bloodless capitulation by the Ukrainians after the Russians lay the plan for the foregoing on the table, resulting in a similar outcome but without killing a bunch of people and destroying a lot of infrastructure. All of this really bad for us, and for Ukraine. But we care too little, and are not clever enough, to negotiate a deal like what Henry Kissinger and even Zbig Brzezinski have talked about, which would have produced an infinitely better outcome for the Ukrainians. And for us.

hedgeworth · 15-02-2022, 09:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I disagree. "Unity shown by NATO and Ukraine"? What unity? NATO has specifically ruled out military action. Ukraine means nothing to NATO except as a means to tweak Russia's nose, and are unwilling to do anything significant to defend Ukraine. There is zero unity except rhetoric. Today Finland even publicly stopped arms shipments to Ukraine.

A diplomatic solution is still possible -- certainly it would cost us nothing to rule out NATO membership for Ukraine, which will never happen in a million years anyway. For the Russians this is a red line as bright as the red line for Kennedy over Soviet military in Cuba in 1962. We were willing to do anything, including take the world to the brink of nuclear holocaust, to keep the Soviets out of Cuba, and the Russians feel exactly the same way about NATO in Ukraine. There are mutually beneficial deals possible (and beneficial to Ukraine). Since we don't really care, however, it is unlikely we will make one of them.

So my money is on failure of diplomacy resulting in either a quick invasion, maybe surgical seizure of Kiev and neutralization of selected units of the Ukrainian armed forces, decapitation of the current government, installation of a puppet government which then signs treaties with Russia giving veto power over Ukraine's foreign policy decisions. Or bloodless capitulation by the Ukrainians after the Russians lay the plan for the foregoing on the table, resulting in a similar outcome but without killing a bunch of people and destroying a lot of infrastructure. All of this really bad for us, and for Ukraine. But we care too little, and are not clever enough, to negotiate a deal like what Henry Kissinger and even Zbig Brzezinski have talked about, which would have produced an infinitely better outcome for the Ukrainians. And for us.

So either way, you vote not much affect on med cruising this summer?