War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I wish you were right, but Putin alas is lying.

The Russians have a mission which they consider to be a matter of life or death for them, much like what we felt about Soviet forces in Cuba in 1962, and they are willing to do anything to achieve this mission. Which is blocking NATO at the Ukrainian border.

They are trying to force us to recognize this interest and so far are failing. If it doesn't get resolved by diplomacy, Putin will just take what he thinks Russia needs as a matter of life and death. I think you can count on it. He has nothing to gain by backing down. And nothing to lose by going for it (thanks to our position in the negotiations).

There is some chance for diplomacy. President Zelensky of Ukraine, an impressive guy despite his background as a TV star, did say that the attack might come tomorrow (16 February). But Putin made a point of pulling some forces back today, a gesture which is meant to show that there is still a chance. I'm afraid however that we are incapable of taking that chance.

We didn't move missiles into the Ukraine. So what is the recent move that Putin finds threatening?

I think he's made his position clear about the possibility of Ukraine membership in NATO, and while NATO certainly can't bend it's policy to his wishes, I don't see NATO making further moves in that direction, as that WOULD be considered a threat and justification for some reaction on the part of Russia.

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

We didn't move missiles into the Ukraine. So what is the recent move that Putin finds threatening?

I think he's made his position clear about the possibility of Ukraine membership in NATO, and while NATO certainly can't bend it's policy to his wishes, I don't see NATO making further moves in that direction, as that WOULD be considered a threat and justification for some reaction on the part of Russia.

So Dockhead is saying he would do the Aegean next year, war or no. Not worried about movement restrictions or security. What say you?

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Van Der Beek

This is an issue created by the Entente a 100 years ago, which is now coming back to bite "us", or rather, the Ukrainians in the ass.

The Germans had the Russians crushed during the Great War. They created a buffer zone between Germany and Russia, and they made the Ukraine independent. Of course, it would have been under German influence today rather the Russian. I don't think that would have been a bad thing, the Ukraine would most likely have been richer today. . . .

It's great someone knows at least something about the history of this region

With respect, however -- the Germans didn't "make Ukraine independent". While it is true that the Germans intervened in Ukraine in 1918 and routed the Ukrainian Bol'sheviks, the Germans then backed an ultra-right wing coup against the new Ukrainian government just two months later. This ultra right-wing government, called the "Hetmanate", was itself only in control of a large part of the region until the autumn of the same year, when it was overthrown by Ukrainian Marxists. The Germans by this time had lost WWI and were gone, and Ukraine was fully engulfed again in the Russian Civil War, with Bol'sheviks from both inside and outside Ukraine furiously fighting for control of the region. By March of 1919 independent Ukraine was reduced to a narrow strip of land along the Polish border. The bloody civil war continued, but was over by 1921, from which point all of Ukraine was part of the USSR.

So Ukraine never had any experience of independence of any significance, before 1991. Would they have been better off under German domination? Perhaps. Anything which would have avoided 75 years of communist slavery, and the Kholodmor, would already be good. But then Germany would have had to survive, and we don't know what Germany would have looked like. Thread drift, but the whole world would have been vastly better off without WWI, without the crushing defeat of the Germans which led to the Russian revolution, then WWII, then the Cold War. Almost all the evils of the 20th century can be traced back to that fatal shot by Gavrilo Princip in Sarajevo, and the present evils too. Good reading on this: Robert K. Massie, Dreadnought: Britain, Germany, and the Coming of the Great War (1991).

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

We didn't move missiles into the Ukraine. So what is the recent move that Putin finds threatening?

I think he's made his position clear about the possibility of Ukraine membership in NATO, and while NATO certainly can't bend it's policy to his wishes, I don't see NATO making further moves in that direction, as that WOULD be considered a threat and justification for some reaction on the part of Russia.

S

Missiles are only a small part of the picture.

It starts with interference in the internal affairs of the country. We engineered a violent coup in Ukraine in 2014 which overthrew a democratically elected government which was friendly to Russia, and installed a government with ministers hand picked by Victoria Nuland of the U.S. State Department (caught on audio tape which you can still find on Youtube), which was intensely hostile to Russia although the population by and large was not. The Russians are not innocent of interference in Ukraine's internal affairs, either, but the government we overthrew was "their bastards", a point of view we should undertand, as we have taken it constantly ourselves in what we consider to be our back yard. They took as dim a view of that as we would have had this happened to us in Latin America -- something I am astonished we don't understand (well, Kissinger does -- read what he wrote on the subject).

Then propagandizing inside Ukraine for NATO membership, although even today this is not supported by a majority of people in Ukraine.

The Russians can't exclude that we would take this to the logical extreme and actually take Ukraine into NATO, which would allow us to base missiles there just as we base missiles today in Poland. So you see, the missiles do follow.

I don't think there is a snowball's chance of hell that we will ever go that far, which would require us to actually guaranty the security of Ukraine, which is geographically, culturally and economically embedded in Russia, and which is the poorest and most corrupt country in Europe. But the Russians don't know that for sure. And they are not going to take the chance. No matter what it costs them. Mark my words.

[Van Der Beek]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

It's great someone knows at least something about the history of this region

With respect, however -- the Germans didn't "make Ukraine independent". While it is true that the Germans intervened in Ukraine in 1918 and routed the Ukrainian Bol'sheviks, the Germans then backed an ultra-right wing coup against the new Ukrainian government just two months later. This ultra right-wing government, called the "Hetmanate", was itself only in control of a large part of the region until the autumn of the same year, when it was overthrown by Ukrainian Marxists. The Germans by this time had lost WWI and were gone, and Ukraine was fully engulfed again in the Russian Civil War, with Bol'sheviks from both inside and outside Ukraine furiously fighting for control of the region. By March of 1919 independent Ukraine was reduced to a narrow strip of land along the Polish border. The bloody civil war continued, but was over by 1921, from which point all of Ukraine was part of the USSR.

So Ukraine never had any experience of independence of any significance, before 1991. Would they have been better off under German domination? Perhaps. Anything which would have avoided 75 years of communist slavery, and the Kholodmor, would already be good. But then Germany would have had to survive, and we don't know what Germany would have looked like. Thread drift, but the whole world would have been vastly better off without WWI, without the crushing defeat of the Germans which led to the Russian revolution, then WWII, then the Cold War. Almost all the evils of the 20th century can be traced back to that fatal shot by Gavrilo Princip in Sarajevo, and the present evils too. Good reading on this: Robert K. Massie, Dreadnought: Britain, Germany, and the Coming of the Great War (1991).

Clearly I knew just enough to get myself into "trouble", great post Dockhead, appreciated it.

Added.
I think Germany would have looked like it did after the unification in 1871, possibly united with Austria later on if they had cut ties with the Hungarians. I'm in full agreement with your thread "drift", sad outcome for everyone involved.

[ausnp84]

In answer to the OP’s question, the Med feels as safe as ever and were we not heading to the Carib, we’d have no qualms joining our friends in Turkey instead.

This is all the US and the UK desperate for another armed conflict to keep their military paid and fed, and will die down soon enough.

Enjoy your sail over here and time in the Med.

N

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Van Der Beek

Clearly I knew just enough to get myself into "trouble", great post Dockhead, appreciated it.

Added.
I think Germany would have looked like it did after the unification in 1871, possibly united with Austria later on if they had cut ties with the Hungarians. I'm in full agreement with your thread "drift", sad outcome for everyone involved.

If Germany really would have gone back to what she was after 1871, then the full depth of the tragedy of WWI is really clear Germany was one of the most enlightened societies of that time, inventor of the welfare state, a great center of culture and progress, from then until the end of the century. Then it all went off the rails

[Van Der Beek]

If I recall Germany earned more Nobel prizes in science than England, France, Russia and the United States combined. A real powerhouse for sure.

Yeah, they got hijacked by criminals and things spiraled out of control. It worked fine when they had strong sound leadership, which I guess was all they knew, then they attempted democracy and or a republic? Something along those lines and when that failed the National Socialists arrived and hey presto. Let's trash the German nation and other countries around us. Madness.

Now they've been reduced to a nation of car manufactures, nice cars but I mean, a far cry from their heyday for sure.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Van Der Beek

If I recall Germany earned more Nobel prizes in science than England, France, Russia and the United States combined. A real powerhouse for sure.

Yeah, they got hijacked by criminals and things spiraled out of control. It worked fine when they had strong sound leadership, which I guess was all they knew, then they attempted democracy and or a republic? Something along those lines and when that failed the National Socialists arrived and hey presto. Let's trash the German nation and other countries around us. Madness.

Now they've been reduced to a nation of car manufactures, nice cars but I mean, a far cry from their heyday for sure.

Well, I think Germany is a nice country again, 75 years after the last world war. I loved living there in the 80's. Ranks higher on the Democracy Index than the U.S. -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democracy_Index. Not as high as the Netherlands, but well ahead of the UK and France, not to mention the U.S. (which is not even ranked as a "Full Democracy" anymore).

[requiem]

Originally Posted by Van Der Beek

Yeah, they got hijacked by criminals and things spiraled out of control. It worked fine when they had strong sound leadership, which I guess was all they knew, then they attempted democracy and or a republic? Something along those lines and when that failed the National Socialists arrived and hey presto. Let's trash the German nation and other countries around us. Madness.

The tale is a sad one, and often poorly summarized as defeat->hyperinflation->nazis. What's left out is the period in between those last two, which is quite instructive from a historical standpoint. They had a republic, they had a constitution, they had conversations about how bright the future was and how the warnings about the nazis were overblown and couldn't possible happen in a modern, liberal society. The nazis didn't simply appear out of nowhere; to understand their motivation it's important to go back to before the first war and understand the key tensions of the time. For me, Princip's shot was a careless skier triggering an avalanche; the weak layer in the snow was already there, and any careless impact would have been sufficient to trigger it.

Ukraine, to almost return to the original topic, reminds me greatly of Poland. It's a borderland between strong states, which makes it difficult for a strong identity to emerge as it's torn between existing powers. Poland's was created centuries before, and influenced by the various partitions. Ukraine, at least a good chunk, was also part of that Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth but I think even then overshadowed by the Polish identity. Still, I can't help but note that the arguments used in the earlier partitions of Poland are the same as being used today.

Cruising in the Med? If cruising in the Med is endangered, then so too is cruising in the Baltic, or living in Europe. Any spillover to that extent means that things will have gone terribly wrong and few places will be safe.

[250224]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

It starts with interference in the internal affairs of the country. We engineered a violent coup in Ukraine in 2014 which overthrew a democratically elected government which was friendly to Russia, and installed a government with ministers hand picked by Victoria Nuland of the U.S. State Department (caught on audio tape which you can still find on Youtube), which was intensely hostile to Russia although the population by and large was not. The Russians are not innocent of interference in Ukraine's internal affairs, either, but the government we overthrew was "their bastards", a point of view we should undertand, as we have taken it constantly ourselves in what we consider to be our back yard. They took as dim a view of that as we would have had this happened to us in Latin America -- something I am astonished we don't understand (well, Kissinger does -- read what he wrote on the subject).

I don't know enough but suppose that there are severe economical consequences when countries move "to the west", i.e. when Poland is suddenly within the EU. The former trade between Poland and Russia must have been affected by this?

Krim belongs to Russia (now, the sacking of a German "Navy chief" was quite telling), and at some point relations will normalize. Without Russian energy life would be rather cold in Western Europe, shudder. There won't be "war".

[garyfdl]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

I was thinking about crossing from North America and cruising the Mediterranean this spring. I imagine a war in Ukraine would negatively affect the security situation in the Black Sea.

Ya think???

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

What do those there now think the chances are that the chaos might spill over to the Eastern med?

Regardless of what they think, why would you want to be within 5000 miles of an international conflict that involves a superpower?

I was in the USN, during an 'altercation' in the middle east. I can tell you that in the Med, things can get very busy, and crowded, both above and below the surface. One of the last things people are doing is worrying about pleasure craft.

There are plenty of other cruising locations, save the 'Med run' for another time.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by requiem

The tale is a sad one, and often poorly summarized as defeat->hyperinflation->nazis. What's left out is the period in between those last two, which is quite instructive from a historical standpoint. They had a republic, they had a constitution, they had conversations about how bright the future was and how the warnings about the nazis were overblown and couldn't possible happen in a modern, liberal society. The nazis didn't simply appear out of nowhere; to understand their motivation it's important to go back to before the first war and understand the key tensions of the time. For me, Princip's shot was a careless skier triggering an avalanche; the weak layer in the snow was already there, and any careless impact would have been sufficient to trigger it.

I agree entirely.

But one instructive thing to learn from what happened to Germany is how wrong it can go how fast, even in a democracy with a good constitution, as Weimar was. Reminds me a bit of Australia, where people were cool with exit visas being imposed during the pandemic.

Originally Posted by requiem

Ukraine, to almost return to the original topic, reminds me greatly of Poland. It's a borderland between strong states, which makes it difficult for a strong identity to emerge as it's torn between existing powers. Poland's was created centuries before, and influenced by the various partitions. Ukraine, at least a good chunk, was also part of that Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth but I think even then overshadowed by the Polish identity. Still, I can't help but note that the arguments used in the earlier partitions of Poland are the same as being used today.

Well, Poland and Ukraine are neighbors, with a lot of culture in common. And Poland was also caught between two (even three, counting Sweden) great powers for centuries, partitioned repeatedly by the Russians and Germans, and vassals of the Russian empire for centuries.

HOWEVER, unlike Ukraine, Poland not only was a country with its own identiy, its own kings, but was even a Great Power for a certain amount of time -- as part of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The Poles are the only people besides the Mongols to ever conquer Moscow -- something neither Napoleon nor Hitler was able to do. It's a little different from Ukraine.

Unlike Ukraine, the Poles kicked the Bol'sheviks' azzes in the early years of the Workers' Paradise and sent the Red Army packing, preserving their independence for the interwar years. For great reading about that particular historical episode, read Isaac Babel's Red Cavalry, the improbable, rollicking, TRUE story of a small, nerdy Jewish man from Odessa riding with the Cossacks with the Red Army in Poland. This episode is actually part of the story of Ukraine, as the object of the Red Army was not just to reconquer former Russian Empire land in Poland, but to kick the Poles out of Ukraine, which they had occupied in opposition to the commies. The Red Army succeeded in the second thing, but did not manage to reconquer Poland.

[hedgeworth]

Originally Posted by garyfdl

Ya think???



Regardless of what they think, why would you want to be within 5000 miles of an international conflict that involves a superpower?



I was in the USN, during an 'altercation' in the middle east. I can tell you that in the Med, things can get very busy, and crowded, both above and below the surface. One of the last things people are doing is worrying about pleasure craft.



There are plenty of other cruising locations, save the 'Med run' for another time.

I hear you. I think that’s the pragmatic response.

But here’s my problem: time is the fire in which we burn.

There might be no good “another time.” I have the boat, time, money and health. How long does all that stuff stay lined up? You get a chance maybe once to take a leisurely walk through the cradle of civilization. The Iliad and the Odyssey, Jason and the Argonauts and all that jazz.

Am I going to miss it because of some thing that in all likelihood would be contained 500 miles away? Sure there are risks. I think you make a good case.

But it’s risky sailing across an ocean anyway

I have to say it’s interesting hearing everyone’s point of view

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by hedgeworth

I hear you. I think that’s the pragmatic response.

But here’s my problem: time is the fire in which we burn.

There might be no good “another time.” I have the boat, time, money and health. How long does all that stuff stay lined up? You get a chance maybe once to take a leisurely walk through the cradle of civilization. The Iliad and the Odyssey, Jason and the Argonauts and all that jazz.

Am I going to miss it because of some thing that in all likelihood would be contained 500 miles away? Sure there are risks. I think you make a good case.

But it’s risky sailing across an ocean anyway

I have to say it’s interesting hearing everyone’s point of view

There are no risks in the Aegean from the Ukrainian situation. Go for it. Your biggest risks are running out of ouzo (raki in Turkey), getting dinged by the Turks for dumping grey water overboard, getting blown around a bit by the meltemi, or missing the closing time of the incredible castle museum in Bodrum.

Some of the most magical sailing I ever did (out of a lifetime of saiing all over the world) was in the Aegean. Also don't skip the Turkish parts, which are equally interesting. Don't miss this.