War in Ukraine/Med Cruising

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Ukraine is practically impossible to integrate into Russia -- GDP per capita is almost 3x less than in Russia. It would be like the U.S. trying to annex Mexico. The Russians don't need this. They will rather install a more or less puppet government and force it to sign a treaty giving the Russians some kind of veto power over their foreign policy. And then leave.

I don't think this is going to be done in a week. They won't be in and out.

For a small GDP, the Ukraine is armed to the teeth. They have 200,000 troops, many who have actually fought. Unlike the Russian troops, they'll be fighting for their own existence/autonomy.

Russia has overwhelming might. Do they have overwhelming will?

I wouldn't trivialize what Russia is signing up for here.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by goboatingnow

Clearly if one looks at Afghanistan , Syria , Iraq , and elsewhere your claimed evolutionary climb has taken a decent nose dive downwards. Not a lot of diplomacy there.

Indeed. And Letsgetsailing3 may not be aware that a lot of people around the world consider us to be as bad as the Russians because of all of this. A little dated, but this is a good example: https://www.dw.com/en/germans-say-ru...tes/a-41728582.


At various times a majority of Germans, for example, consider the Russians to be "more reliable partners" than the U.S. We are no longer consider by most people around the world to be the "good guys", not surprising after the horrendous things we did in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc.



It is really dangerous to assume that one's own country is "on a higher evolutionary level" than some other country. It leads to misunderstanding of facts. A lot of Americans simply can't conceive of the dirty things we have been doing in Ukraine -- because they just assume we are the "good guys". So pretty soon the world gets divided into good guys and bad guys, and you lose the plot, like we have in Ukraine.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I
It is really dangerous to assume that one's own country is "on a higher evolutionary level" than some other country. It leads to misunderstanding of facts. A lot of Americans simply can't conceive of the dirty things we have been doing in Ukraine -- because they just assume we are the "good guys". So pretty soon the world gets divided into good guys and bad guys, and you lose the plot, like we have in Ukraine.

Sorry, you misunderstood what you read.

I didn't say the US was on a higher evolutionary level. I was talking about international institutions. Like the UN. Higher political ideals. Liberal democracy. Yes, those are better than authoritarian regimes.

And there are good guys and bad guys in the Ukraine. Giving them free political will = good guys. Invading them and killing civilians = bad guys.

Other things bad guys do: poison political opposition, arrest political opposition, invade other countries, censor opposing views

Leaders have a choice. There is no moral equivalence between the U.S. stance and the Russia stance here.

Military invasion killing civilians = bad guys.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Sorry, you misunderstood what you read.

I didn't say the US was on a higher evolutionary level. I was talking about international institutions. Like the UN. Higher political ideals. Liberal democracy. Yes, those are better than authoritarian regimes.

And there are good guys and bad guys in the Ukraine. Giving them free political will = good guys. Invading them and killing civilians = bad guys.

Other things bad guys do: poison political opposition, arrest political opposition, invade other countries, censor opposing views

Leaders have a choice. There is no moral equivalence between the U.S. stance and the Russia stance here.

Military invasion killing civilians = bad guys.

That’s no point debating good versus bad it’s all “ grey “ thd US chose to invade multiple countries and the resulting destruction will take generations to resolve. Russia equally supported a murderous and barbaric regime in Syria

There isn’t any “ right “ and “ wrong “ all sides have escalated this to the point it’s at.

My point was that the west could offer to address some of the issues but instead it just throws more petrol ( arms ) into the fire.

As for political free will, let’s not descend into that quagmire.

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

At various times a majority of Germans, for example, consider the Russians to be "more reliable partners" than the U.S. We are no longer consider by most people around the world to be the "good guys", not surprising after the horrendous things we did in Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, etc.

Again, I think you're exaggerating a good bit.

You're referencing a poll that was clearly directed at Donald Trump, when he was going on his "Let's bash NATO and Europe" tour.

How do you think that poll would go comparing Biden with Putin? I think not the way you're suggesting. I bet even you couldn't say you'd trust Putin more than Biden with a straight face, even after this discussion we've been having.

Hint: Putin's probably not having a good week, and he hasn't even invaded the Ukraine yet.

But Putin can save some face right here, right now, by bringing his military home instead of invading Ukraine.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Sorry, you misunderstood what you read.

I didn't say the US was on a higher evolutionary level. I was talking about international institutions. Like the UN. Higher political ideals. Liberal democracy. Yes, those are better than authoritarian regimes.

And there are good guys and bad guys in the Ukraine. Giving them free political will = good guys. Invading them and killing civilians = bad guys.

Other things bad guys do: poison political opposition, arrest political opposition, invade other countries, censor opposing views

Leaders have a choice. There is no moral equivalence between the U.S. stance and the Russia stance here.

Military invasion killing civilians = bad guys.

“ giving them free political will “ you mean by gerrymandering and interfering in internal countries politics ,err let’s not throw stones in a glass house here. The west is just as dirty.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

They never climbed out.

You should look at some old footage from Afghanistan pre Russia and Iraq when Saddam was still America's golden boy touring the US Chemical Warfare plants.. or Libya for that matter.
All the superpowers have done is push them into the dirt..

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

Sorry, you misunderstood what you read.

I didn't say the US was on a higher evolutionary level. I was talking about international institutions. Like the UN. Higher political ideals. Liberal democracy. Yes, those are better than authoritarian regimes.

And there are good guys and bad guys in the Ukraine. Giving them free political will = good guys. Invading them and killing civilians = bad guys.

Other things bad guys do: poison political opposition, arrest political opposition, invade other countries, censor opposing views

Leaders have a choice. There is no moral equivalence between the U.S. stance and the Russia stance here.

Military invasion killing civilians = bad guys.

Like the USA and Britain with Iraq.. = Bad Guys..
Did the UN sanction the Iraq war?
The invasion of Iraq was neither in self-defense against armed attack nor sanctioned by UN Security Council resolution authorizing the use of force by member states and thus constituted the crime of war of aggression, according to the International Commission of Jurists (ICJ) in Geneva.

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

I don't think this is going to be done in a week. They won't be in and out.

For a small GDP, the Ukraine is armed to the teeth. They have 200,000 troops, many who have actually fought. Unlike the Russian troops, they'll be fighting for their own existence/autonomy.

Russia has overwhelming might. Do they have overwhelming will?

I wouldn't trivialize what Russia is signing up for here.

I certainly don't trivialize it. The Russians will be in real trouble if they get bogged down in a big war. You are probably not aware of this, but most Russians don't even consider Ukrainians to be foreigners. Most Ukrainians, and many Russians, have family ties across the border. If the Russian military is seen to be killing a lot of Ukrainians, public support might evaporate. I'm not even sure Putin can count on the Russian Army not to revolt.



But the Ukrainians may face a similar problem. Ukrainians agree in general that they want the country to stay independent, but they are deeply divided on the question of nationalism. Will the Ukrainian Army even be willing to right the Russians? The Ukrainian military has had to resort to using neo-Nazi militia groups like the Azov Brigades, to get people into the fight in Donbass. A large part of the Ukrainian population will not fight under the banners of Stepan Bandera. A war between Russia and Ukraine is of course a war which should never happen. It will be an awful, brother-against-brother thing.



I think the Russians realize all this very well. They have the capability to do this in a surgical way, and I think that's how it will go down. What they face in Ukraine is much like what we faced in Iraq, and they will do it the same say we did -- start with air power and cruise missiles, take out air defense capability, eliminate air capability, establish total air superiority, then eliminate armored formations and military infrastructure. There will not be much infantry action. The Russians have the world's second largest air force, and the second largest fleet of air transport. They could probably take Kiev without even moving military assets by ground, just by taking Borispol and a couple of other airfields with airborne Spetsnaz and then simply flying in the forces needed to take the capital, over the heads of the remaining Ukrainian military.



Ukrainians "armed to the teeth"? Don't make me laugh. They don't have a single tank built since the end of the Soviet Union, they haven't acquired a single new manned combat aircraft in 30 years. They are using ancient WWII era field telephones with spools of wire, or their own mobile phones, for communication. The Russian defense budget is 11x Ukraine's. A real headache for the Russians, however, will be the Javelin missiles which we gave Ukraine.



See: https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidax...sian-invasion/

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by boatman61

. . . All the superpowers have done is push them into the dirt..

Indeed. That's what superpowers do, innit?

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

Indeed. That's what superpowers do, innit?

Meanwhile arms sales are picking up..
https://www.popularmechanics.com/mil...n-battle-tank/

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by Dockhead

I certainly don't trivialize it.

You ARE trivializing it. I'm disagreeing with you. Not because I don't know what you're saying. And not because I think the U.S. can do no wrong. I'm disagreeing because you're justifying it with a sort of moral equivalency that doesn't reflect reality. I'm disagreeing because I don't think a military invasion is justified. If Russia feels threatened, there is a diplomatic course which has not been exhausted, or even tried. There is no eminent threat of Ukrainian NATO membership that is provoking this response from Russia. This is Putin looking for an opportunity.

You laugh at the Ukrainian military. I could be wrong, but I don't think it will be quite the same as the U.S military rolling over the Iraqis who are throwing rocks at the F-16s. My impression was that they have been building up their military since 2014. There will be casualties on both sides.

Biden has done an excellent job of keeping this all out in the open. Even as Russia claimed this was just an exercise as they surrounded Ukraine with armaments and troops. Even as Russia claimed to be withdrawing as they brought more troops in. Even as Russia tried to stage some excuses to invade.

Today, the Russian Ambassador was claiming that they had no interest in invading, after intel reports came out that Russian commanders were instructed to make battle plans.

You laugh at the sanctions the west is proposing. You say they have no teeth. Again, I disagree. I think you're underestimating the U.S. and NATO. They may not be perfect, but they often do what they say they're going to do.

Who knows. Maybe Putin will withdraw, and end his military exercise that has nothing to do with invading Ukraine. I'd welcome that.

But if he doesn't, we'll find out if additional sanctions are effective. I think they will be stronger than you realize. I don't think any of this will be endearing Putin to the average Russian, or raise his status in the international community.

[boatman61]

Iraq lost most of its elite troops (4 Battalions) and air force to Bush senior in the first war.. thousands were killed after retreating back over the border.. most of the battle hardened from the 6yrs fighting Iran.

[Montanan]

Decidedly not much discussion about cruising subject matter in this thread.

If one does opt to cruise in the Black Sea, it would behoove a discussion with your insurance company as to coverage.

Joint War Committee Lists the Black Sea Waters of Ukraine and Russia
PUBLISHED FEB 15, 2022 8:42 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

https://www.maritime-executive.com/i...-war-risk-list

"The Joint War Committee, the marine insurance advisory board that assesses and designates regions of heightened risk, has added sections of the northern Black Sea to its master list of areas with an elevated likelihood of war, piracy or terrorism. The move comes amidst heightened tensions caused by Russian naval drills in waters near Crimea.

The designation requires the shipowner to notify their hull insurance underwriter in advance of a voyage to a covered area. The decision whether to insure the voyage or not, and the pricing of the coverage, remains a matter for the insurer to discuss with the owner.

The designation puts the Russian and Ukrainian waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov in the same notification category as the Gulf of Guinea, the Persian Gulf, Yemen, Syria and Iran. It is the only listed region in Europe.

"Whilst the current assessment is that there is armed balance, it was decided to issue [an advisory] as a precautionary measure," the committee said in a brief statement. "There have been no maritime incidents but the possibility of a miscalculation is clear so the JWC have enabled notification of voyages to underwriters."

[Dockhead]

Originally Posted by Montanan

Decidedly not much discussion about cruising subject matter in this thread.

If one does opt to cruise in the Black Sea, it would behoove a discussion with your insurance company as to coverage.

Joint War Committee Lists the Black Sea Waters of Ukraine and Russia
PUBLISHED FEB 15, 2022 8:42 PM BY THE MARITIME EXECUTIVE

https://www.maritime-executive.com/i...-war-risk-list

"The Joint War Committee, the marine insurance advisory board that assesses and designates regions of heightened risk, has added sections of the northern Black Sea to its master list of areas with an elevated likelihood of war, piracy or terrorism. The move comes amidst heightened tensions caused by Russian naval drills in waters near Crimea.

The designation requires the shipowner to notify their hull insurance underwriter in advance of a voyage to a covered area. The decision whether to insure the voyage or not, and the pricing of the coverage, remains a matter for the insurer to discuss with the owner.

The designation puts the Russian and Ukrainian waters of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov in the same notification category as the Gulf of Guinea, the Persian Gulf, Yemen, Syria and Iran. It is the only listed region in Europe.

"Whilst the current assessment is that there is armed balance, it was decided to issue [an advisory] as a precautionary measure," the committee said in a brief statement. "There have been no maritime incidents but the possibility of a miscalculation is clear so the JWC have enabled notification of voyages to underwriters."

I think it's obvious to everyone that this is not the time to be cruising the Northern Black Sea.



But there had really not been a good time to cruise the Northern Black Sea. I've sailed those waters, and I've been all over that country by land. The Russian Black Sea coast is amazingly beautiful, dramatic -- the Caucasus mountains going right into the sea. But there's almost no place to anchor, and only a handful of harbours. Bit like California, but even less (much less) infrastructure for yachts. Crimea is one of the most beautiful places on earth, but again -- no place to go for the yachtsman. Even in peacetime, you don't want to get anywhere near Sevastopol. In times like this, just stay far away.