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20-02-2022, 09:57
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#151
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Lake Ont
Posts: 8,582
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Re: War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead
3. Make a deal which keeps Ukraine neutral, as proposed by Henry Kissinger, much in the same manner as was done with Austria and Finland after WWII.
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It's my impression that this has been the de facto position - that there hasn't been an effort to get the Ukraine into NATO, as long as they're independent... so Russia claiming that there's a genuine threat to their security seems bogus to me. Beyond some sanctions, little effort has been mounted to kick Russia out of the eastern Ukraine, right?
I think it's just Putin needing some "victory" for Russian public consumption - a moment of nationalistic chest-thumping, and a distraction from internal problems.
I kind of think the west has the right message: "We see you". We all know it would be an unprovoked invasion; there's no "he said - she said" about it.
A treaty that makes things more explicit might be appropriate... or it might just be appeasement which would correctly be interpreted as weakness.
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20-02-2022, 10:00
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#152
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2014
Posts: 3,229
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Re: War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Another historical fact from Kievan Rus, perhaps very relevant today, is that overall Kievan Rus was a formidable military power of its times. However, being a loose federation of smaller pricipalities and lacking centralized AND unified command, it could not mount a meaningful defense aqgainst the invading Mongols.
And there was quite a lot of internal fighting among the Rus princes unabated by the imminent threat of the invasion. To the point of each side vying for an alliance with the Mongols as long as the Mongols could help them overcome their local foes. In 1160s Kiev even was burned during one such internal fighting event, while the Mongols were on the way to do the job themselves only to find out that they were pre-empted by the local princes.
Looks like the NATO stance vs Russia is similar in that failed approach. We have NATO countries who have lived through the worst brunt of the Russian/Soviet domination desperately seeking less affected members to help them hold the line to little avail. Gas and oil trump everything it seems. Pun intended.
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20-02-2022, 10:04
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#153
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Nearly an old salt
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Lefkas Marina ,Greece
Boat: Bavaria 36
Posts: 22,801
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War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3
You keep saying that, but it's not an apt comparison.
The Cuban missile crisis was precipitated by a very specific and acute military threat by the Russians.
What the United States said was that the placement of missiles in Cuba was considered an act of war. At that time, missiles didn't have the range and accuracy they have today. Now, each country is very capable of striking each other accurately from their own country, so the missile thing (while important) just isn't the same. In your analogy, the United States' response should have been doing a full-scale military invasion of Venezuela.
If Russia considers NATO admittance for the Ukraine an act of war, it can say so. There is plenty of room for discussion on that. Instead, Russia is preparing a military invasion.
The fact is that Russia doesn't like the Ukraine having a strong relationship with the West as trading partners and influence. This is the real reason. It's not because it's a threat, it's because Russia's non-democratic world is getting smaller, and Putin is "old school Kremlin". Russia thinks of the Ukraine as part of their territory. Not unlike China with Taiwan.
Sure, there is always a threat to having neighbors. But this is more about thinking that the territory "belongs" to them. The analogy here is that your best friends next door start hanging out with their neighbors on the other side, so you invade their house so you don't have to be lonely on Saturday nights.
All of this is the same logic Hitler used in WWII. And exactly what the UN was created to help avoid. It's unacceptable. And the international community can, and will, hold Russia (and Putin, personally) fully responsible for lives lost.
The US and the UK have done an excellent job of showing this for exactly what it is.
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Boris and Biden desperately need a war to deflect from their appalling domestic situations of course.
I see direct parallels between Cuba and Ukraine , it’s not identical of course but the west needs to dial down the rhetoric, neither the U.K. or US will actually lift a finger in the Ukraine.
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Interested in smart boat technology, networking and all things tech
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20-02-2022, 10:05
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#154
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Nearly an old salt
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Lefkas Marina ,Greece
Boat: Bavaria 36
Posts: 22,801
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War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3
Glad you agree.
But the Russians have set up a very dangerous situation.
If they choose to invade, they will pay a heavy price.
The world is watching.
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I’m not clear how they will pay a “ heavy price “ what heavy price, some short lived sanctions is all I see proposed
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Interested in smart boat technology, networking and all things tech
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20-02-2022, 10:11
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#155
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Nearly an old salt
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Lefkas Marina ,Greece
Boat: Bavaria 36
Posts: 22,801
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War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Sure, there is always a threat to having neighbors. But this is more about thinking that the territory "belongs" to them. The analogy here is that your best friends next door start hanging out with their neighbors on the other side, so you invade their house so you don't have to be lonely on Saturday nights.
All of this is the same logic Hitler used in WWII. And exactly what the UN was created to help avoid. It's unacceptable. And the international community can, and will, hold Russia (and Putin, personally) fully responsible for lives lost.
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The annexation of other peoples lands has been going on for millennia. All the major powers and some minor ones have engaged in it. Nothing new here. Many countries were arbitrarily formed often out of conflict without any cognisance taken of historical or tribal situations. These disputes often reach back many many decades
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Interested in smart boat technology, networking and all things tech
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20-02-2022, 10:14
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#156
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Lake Ont
Posts: 8,582
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Re: War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by goboatingnow
I’m not clear how they will pay a “ heavy price “ what heavy price, some short lived sanctions is all I see proposed
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Russia being largely controlled by a few oligarchs, the imposition of hard sanctions on such people could bite very hard.
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20-02-2022, 10:25
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#157
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Moderator

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Cruising North Sea and Baltic (Summer)
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 35,303
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Re: War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lake-Effect
Russia being largely controlled by a few oligarchs, the imposition of hard sanctions on such people could bite very hard.
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Hard sanctions have been in place since 2014. No one cares all that much any more. The can turn the screws a little tighter -- kick Russian banks out of SWIFT (which will hurt us worse than them; will accelerate de-dollarization of the world), cancel the Nord Stream project (which will badly hurt Germany). This is nothing to them, compared to their interest in keeping us out of Ukraine.
A hint as to how serious they are about this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/w...-proofing.html
They have laid in almost 2/3 of a trillion dollars (!!) of reserves, to sanction-proof the economy.
They are very serious about this, which is a fact which we need to have in mind.
__________________
"You sea! I resign myself to you also . . . . I guess what you mean,
I behold from the beach your crooked inviting fingers,
I believe you refuse to go back without feeling of me;
We must have a turn together . . . . I undress . . . . hurry me out of sight of the land,
Cushion me soft . . . . rock me in billowy drowse,
Dash me with amorous wet . . . . I can repay you."
Walt Whitman
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20-02-2022, 10:29
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#158
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 2,974
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Re: War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by goboatingnow
The annexation of other peoples lands has been going on for millennia. All the major powers and some minor ones have engaged in it. Nothing new here. Many countries were arbitrarily formed often out of conflict without any cognisance taken of historical or tribal situations. These disputes often reach back many many decades
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That kind of thinking is deeply frowned upon, since WWII and the creation of the United Nations.
We're trying to evolve as a human race. But not everyone is on board.
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20-02-2022, 10:32
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#159
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Nearly an old salt
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Lefkas Marina ,Greece
Boat: Bavaria 36
Posts: 22,801
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War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3
That kind of thinking is deeply frowned upon, since WWII and the creation of the United Nations.
We're trying to evolve as a human race. But not everyone is on board.
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Clearly if one looks at Afghanistan , Syria , Iraq , and elsewhere your claimed evolutionary climb has taken a decent nose dive downwards. Not a lot of diplomacy there.
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20-02-2022, 10:33
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#160
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 2,974
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Re: War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by goboatingnow
Clearly if one looks at Afghanistan , Syria , Iraq , and elsewhere out evolutionary climb has taken a decent nose drive downwards.
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They never climbed out.
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20-02-2022, 10:34
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#161
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Nearly an old salt
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Lefkas Marina ,Greece
Boat: Bavaria 36
Posts: 22,801
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Re: War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3
They never climbed out.
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Neither did “we” it seems.
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20-02-2022, 10:35
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#162
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Moderator

Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Denmark (Winter), Cruising North Sea and Baltic (Summer)
Boat: Cutter-Rigged Moody 54
Posts: 35,303
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Re: War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by goboatingnow
The annexation of other peoples lands has been going on for millennia. All the major powers and some minor ones have engaged in it. Nothing new here. Many countries were arbitrarily formed often out of conflict without any cognisance taken of historical or tribal situations. These disputes often reach back many many decades
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It doesn't make it right. For the sake of peace and order in the world, we should try to stop countries from annexing each other, and we should stop ourselves overthrowing other countries' governments. There is some kind of injustice or another in ever border, which is in every case some more or less arbitrary line. There is no way to change all the borders of the world to eliminate all the injustices.
For what it's worth, the Russians by all account do not want to annex Ukraine. Crimea was different, because (a) it was Russian anyway; and (b) they had their most important naval base there. Nevertheless it cost them hundreds of billions to integrate Crimea into Russia and the headaches are not over.
Ukraine is practically impossible to integrate into Russia -- GDP per capita is almost 3x less than in Russia. It would be like the U.S. trying to annex Mexico. The Russians don't need this. They will rather install a more or less puppet government and force it to sign a treaty giving the Russians some kind of veto power over their foreign policy. And then leave.
__________________
"You sea! I resign myself to you also . . . . I guess what you mean,
I behold from the beach your crooked inviting fingers,
I believe you refuse to go back without feeling of me;
We must have a turn together . . . . I undress . . . . hurry me out of sight of the land,
Cushion me soft . . . . rock me in billowy drowse,
Dash me with amorous wet . . . . I can repay you."
Walt Whitman
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20-02-2022, 10:40
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#163
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Lake Ont
Posts: 8,582
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Re: War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead
Hard sanctions have been in place since 2014. No one cares all that much any more. The can turn the screws a little tighter -- kick Russian banks out of SWIFT (which will hurt us worse than them; will accelerate de-dollarization of the world), cancel the Nord Stream project (which will badly hurt Germany). This is nothing to them, compared to their interest in keeping us out of Ukraine.
A hint as to how serious they are about this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/w...-proofing.html
They have laid in almost 2/3 of a trillion dollars (!!) of reserves, to sanction-proof the economy.
They are very serious about this, which is a fact which we need to have in mind.
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I have no doubt that they're serious about something, but it still seems that that "something" isn't thwarting a genuine existential security threat, but some calculated bold move by Putin to increase Russia's holdings and prestige, to please an internal audience, and to firm up his own grip on power.
Can you point to any recent western actions in or towards the Ukraine that would have threatened Russia? I'm asking; I don't know.
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20-02-2022, 10:41
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#164
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 2,974
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Re: War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead
Hard sanctions have been in place since 2014. No one cares all that much any more. The can turn the screws a little tighter -- kick Russian banks out of SWIFT (which will hurt us worse than them; will accelerate de-dollarization of the world), cancel the Nord Stream project (which will badly hurt Germany). This is nothing to them, compared to their interest in keeping us out of Ukraine.
A hint as to how serious they are about this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/03/w...-proofing.html
They have laid in almost 2/3 of a trillion dollars (!!) of reserves, to sanction-proof the economy.
They are very serious about this, which is a fact which we need to have in mind.
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$631 billion (what you call 2/3 of a trillion) isn't so big a number as it might seem. Every Russian will be feeling it fairly quickly, and for some time.
For reference, the U.S. spent $7 trillion on COVID aid.
And sure, it will hurt the world economy. For a while. The world is a little over dependent on China for chips, and on Russia for oil. But the world is highly adaptable.
So don't go pretending that Putin is well prepared for an international freeze-out with his biggest trading partners. He's not. This won't be a short-term thing. This is a relationship-changing move.
All those Oligarchs love to visit the west. I don't think they want all their foreign assets frozen.
If you think the ruble is worthless now, check back in a month. If Putin decides to invade, we'll revisit this in a year or two, and see how it's working out for him.
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20-02-2022, 10:48
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#165
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Nearly an old salt
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Lefkas Marina ,Greece
Boat: Bavaria 36
Posts: 22,801
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War in Ukraine/Med Cruising
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dockhead
It doesn't make it right. For the sake of peace and order in the world, we should try to stop countries from annexing each other, and we should stop ourselves overthrowing other countries' governments. There is some kind of injustice or another in ever border, which is in every case some more or less arbitrary line. There is no way to change all the borders of the world to eliminate all the injustices.
For what it's worth, the Russians by all account do not want to annex Ukraine. Crimea was different, because (a) it was Russian anyway; and (b) they had their most important naval base there. Nevertheless it cost them hundreds of billions to integrate Crimea into Russia and the headaches are not over.
Ukraine is practically impossible to integrate into Russia -- GDP per capita is almost 3x less than in Russia. It would be like the U.S. trying to annex Mexico. The Russians don't need this. They will rather install a more or less puppet government and force it to sign a treaty giving the Russians some kind of veto power over their foreign policy. And then leave.
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One can debate the current situation Russia has stated it will not accept a westernised NATO leaning Ukraine.
As for stopping countries invading , well we did a spectacularly bad job recently in Iraq and Afghanistan , not to mention Korea , Vietnam and there’s the proxy wars like Syria.
So let’s stop trying to convince ourselves we are trying to evolve to some higher purpose. Nothing could be further from the truth.
Putin has attempted to Re-assert the influence of thd former Soviet Union as he’s sees it to counter the western influences ( largely US) however Ukraine is more personal for Russians and he feels this issue is in his ( and I stress his ) back garden.
I’m not suggesting invasion be regarded with a shrug of the shoulder but the west and particularly NATO has ratcheted up pressure rather then acting to defuse the situation. Both Boris and Biden desperately need something to deflect attention from their awful failing domestic situation. They of course know that neither country will risk a single service man in this conflict.
NATO could undermine Putin by offering some simple entirely symbolic concessions , thereby making any subsequent military activity look even more unjustified. But the need to engage in a pissing contest keeps everyone stoking this conflict.
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