Cruising is quite safe

[Mike OReilly]

From a personal prep standpoint, it's certainly good to think about all the "what if!" scenarios. But possible events don't tell us much about the actual risk. I would love to find quality data that looks at the question of ocean-crossing risk. But as was discussed ad nauseam in that other thread, it doesn't appear to exist.

What we do have, and what initiated this conversation, was an analysis of USCG reports covering US waters. It is a large dataset, spanning decades. The mortality data appears to be of high quality. From this data it's clear, cruising in US-controlled waters is very safe.

[sailingharry]

Mike, I think you misunderstood my point. I wasn't commenting on the data -- your point is right -- or even on the risk. Rather, I'm pondering the response if it happens. If I am on a transit from Guatemala to Cuba, and lose a crew over, should I divert to Puerto Rico? Or call it in to the US and continue on my journey (and not even mention it when clearing into customs?)
Of course, the human factor, especially if the loss is family, is an entirely different matter to address.

[Mike OReilly]

I get it Harry. It's definitely worth some serious consideration.

[JPA Cate]

Warning: some grim details below in this post. Some might want to skip it.

Well, once you are out in the Pacific, all the Customs and Immigration guys share information. Wherever you arrive, they will notice if your crew list is not the same as it was on departure. I think that wherever you go, you need to be honest with those authorities, or your cruising will be haunted by the incident and your failure to do so. Results could vary all the way to jail and confiscation of the boat. When you tell the truth, it is verifiable. If you have to do a burial at sea, document it, with photos, with writing in your log. Same if you "lose" someone overboard. Document what you did to try to find them. Most places require you notify them to expect you, I'd give them advance notice. There will be a procedure. It may not be pleasant, but how you present yourself will have a big input to the resolution. Unless you have a very big freezer, you cannot reasonably keep a corpse on board very long. US citizen, nearer to Puerto Rico than the US? how many days away? I think I'd try for PR. You might also contact the CG, they might airlift the sick person for you, and certainly would document the incident. It is a Mayday situation: risking loss of life. Don't know if they would come for a dead person: perhaps, because it is a health issue for crew & skipper.


Ann

[Kettlewell]

US citizen, nearer to Puerto Rico than the US? how many days away? I think I'd try for PR. You might also contact the CG, they might airlift the sick person for you, and certainly would document the incident. It is a Mayday situation: risking loss of life. Don't know if they would come for a dead person: perhaps, because it is a health issue for crew & skipper.

There is no place in the Caribbean where you would not be within range of the U.S. Coast Guard in mere hours, but probably they would direct you to head to the nearest port no matter what country it was. I've been boarded offshore by a big Mexican Navy boat when headed from Belize north, so they are out there too. Also talked to the Colombian Navy down there. Quite a few Coast Guard, Navy, and various patrol vessels are at sea at any time all over the Caribbean, plus you would often be within helicopter range from land or a larger ship.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Kettlewell

Maybe one or two singlehanders disappear every decade or so, but I suspect 95% of them have friends or relatives that do notify authorities and eventually that person would be declared dead, though I suspect they wouldn't show up in the Coast Guard statistics. Frankly, I don't think singlehanding is particularly dangerous. Those that do it a lot tend to become very good sailors and know how to stay safe. I met a bunch of them back in the day in Newport when several singlehanded races started and finished there. They become very good cat nappers, able to sneak 10 minutes of sleep here and there, and able to wake instantly when needed. In any case, there are so few long-distance singlehanded sailors that they won't sway the statistics one way or another

By that reckoning I have known every single hander who has gone missing in the last 15 years.

Oh, and I missed one, maybe 2017/18, had a meal on his boat in Montt, soon thereafter boat overwhelmed and sunk one night while anchored at Easter Island, both boat and owner lost. Single handing did not cause or affect this loss.

Oh and another one, Platino north of NZ a few years back, two dead.

[Kettlewell]

Note to self: don't get to know El Pinguino. It is too dangerous!

[LakeSuperior]

Originally Posted by Kettlewell

Interesting thread and guestimates, but you have to admit the actual numbers are so vague and small as to be meaningless. Plus, with sailing just like driving you can do a huge number of things to not become a statistic.

So I don't admit that. If anything the derived risk number underestimates the reality. The true risk is probably higher than my estimate.

I used a fairly good estimate for the total number of passages per year across the Atlantic derived from the ARC publications, personal knowledge about how many were out there during our 2010 west to east crossing in June, and other sources. Perhaps my estimates are plus/minus 25%.

I then scoured a number of sources for the deaths each year including Cruisers Forum, Coast Guard numbers, and newspaper articles. Again call the number uncertainty plus or minus 25%. You can do the math to find the extrema for the range of my number.

Lastly, I don't think you have a true grasp of what statistics are based on your last sentence. Clearly, some boats/cars are safer, some captains/drivers are more prudent, and therefore some passages/trips are inherently safer. The opposite is also true. Consequently, results may vary. These statistics assume underlying random events.

[Kinkircating]

Just curious how many of you have a person AIS beacon MOB1 type device and wear you offshore vest while on passage? Is daytime different than night or does it just vary on conditions?

[Sailingallday]

Originally Posted by Kinkircating

Just curious how many of you have a person AIS beacon MOB1 type device and wear you offshore vest while on passage? Is daytime different than night or does it just vary on conditions?

Yes. All the time. My boat rule - if we are outside of the bay, then it’s life jacket on at all times. Clipped in if outside of the cockpit. MOB 1 on each life jacket.

[El Pinguino]

Originally Posted by Kettlewell

Note to self: don't get to know El Pinguino. It is too dangerous!

If it worries you how do you think I feel

Note these are all where I have either known or at least met the people.
That includes one of the two deaths on Platino.
I have learnt of all but one by word of mouth, the exception being the one lost in the Tasman, that got a fleeting mention on I think the ABC as a small search had been mounted.

Three non-fatal hull losses in the last 20 years where I had previously met the people involved.
One, a Polish charterer out of Pto Williams, 45ish boat. Decided at the end of the season to do a solo trip around the Horn out of Williams. Lifted off - suffering hypothermia - by helicopter in heavy conditions.
Prior to that an LPG explosion fire and sinking in Puerto Millabu, Bahia Anna Pink.
French couple spent 3 weeks on the beach before rescue, 84 year on heart meds, partner with serious burns.
Husband and wife on a Wly Sealord like mine taken off by a passing freighter after rig failure south of Tristan da Cunha.

Is it more dangerous than other pastimes? In New Zealand I think more people die tramping in the mountains than sailing but then maybe a lot more people go tramping than sailing.

[bergius]

Originally Posted by Kinkircating

Just curious how many of you have a person AIS beacon MOB1 type device and wear you offshore vest while on passage? Is daytime different than night or does it just vary on conditions?

Vests always on while at sea, and always clipped in when alone on deck or in the cockpit.

No MOB beacons yet, though that’s on the list this winter together with an EPIRB for the boat. Until now we’ve been cruising the Baltic where we’ve felt a hand VHF with DSC Distress is enough.

[Kettlewell]

Lastly, I don't think you have a true grasp of what statistics are based on your last sentence. Clearly, some boats/cars are safer, some captains/drivers are more prudent, and therefore some passages/trips are inherently safer. The opposite is also true. Consequently, results may vary. These statistics assume underlying random events.

Take a look at the Primary Contributing Factor of Deaths table on page 23. If you don't drink and sail, if you're experienced, if you don't move at excessive speed, don't violate the navigation rules, and keep a proper lookout you eliminate the top five causes of fatalities. Sure, six may die if this is an average year, but you don't have to be one of them.

[Happ]

Originally Posted by Kettlewell

Taking a look at the latest USCG 2022 Recreational Boating Statistics report (https://www.uscgboating.org/library/...stics-2022.pdf) the "Auxiliary sailboat" category (page 42 of report) shows only 6 deaths and 217 accidents. I thought it was interesting that by far the largest number of accidents (108) are classified as "collision with recreational vessel." I wonder if those could be sailboat racing collisions? After that it looks like "collision with fixed object" and "groundings" are the biggest causes. In any case, a pretty safe sport.

Having raced for more years then 50 years I can’t remember a single time when 2 race boats collided and reported it to authorities. So I doubt these would be part of the statistics

[Ike]

As I'm sure Mike O'Reilly will confirm, there was a long thread about the stats on SailNet.com. Here's what I posted and I think it's relevant to this discussion.

I don't even need to look at the latest stats to comment. My first assignment as a Coast Guard Ensign in 1976 was as Recreational Boating Accident Investigations Coordinator. A fancy title for a desk job collecting accident reports from the states, reviewing them for completeness, and for whether or not they need to be investigated. All deaths on Federal Waterways are required to be investigated. On sole state waters it varies depending on state law, but most states require deaths to be investigated. The comment above is not true. All recreational boating accidents that meet the requirements are required by Federal law to be reported regardless of where they occur, whether it's Federal or state waters. But as he said the reports originally go to the State Boating Authority and then get sent to the Coast Guard. When I retired in 2004 we were working on a way to eliminate paper and have the states send them electronically. It's been 19+ years, I imagine by now they have figured that one out.

From uscgboating.org

Federal law requires the operator or owner of a recreational vessel to file a boating accident report with the State reporting authority if the recreational vessel is involved in an accident that results in any of the following:
A person dies
A person is injured and requires medical treatment beyond first aid
A person disappears from the vessel under circumstances that indicate death or injury
Damage to vessels and other property totals $2,000 (lower amounts in some states and territories).
The boat is destroyed.
I was in the 3rd district, which is now part of the first district. We collected reports from all the following, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Connecticut, and Delaware. After review they were sent to the statistician at CG HQ, who compiles them and analyzes them and puts together the book you're looking at, published annually.

In 1984 I was assigned to the Boating Safety Office in HQ and worked there as both military and later a civilian until 2004. I wasn't in the statistics office but knew the statisticians and spoke with them frequently about boating accidents and trends.

So looking at these you have to take into account a few things.
1. The rates are calculated per 100,000 boats. It does not consider the level of risk exposure involved (usually measured in hours exposed to risk and the level of risk) which is a better measure of accident rates. Unfortunately there is no data on risk exposure.
2. On some boats, in particular small sailboats there is very little data, because most accidents on small sailboats never reach the level of damage or injury, so they never get reported unless someone dies. There is a definite difference between accidents in a canoe in calm lakes and streams where you can walk ashore, and whitewater or ocean kayaking where you can't. So you get reports for kayaks and practically none for canoes. On cruising boats, even if they are US flagged, if the accident occurs in some other nation it doesn't get reported to the US unless they are carrying passengers for hire (over 6 is not a recreational boat anyway).
3. Operator inattention has been one of the top causes since they started collecting data in the 60's.
4. right up there with inattention is alcohol.
5. Lots of boating accidents never get reported. Either the operator is afraid to report it because they think the LEO will charge them with something (they can't use the report for that) or their insurance company will raise their rates. (they probably will). it's the old 20/80 statistic. 20% get reported, 80% don't. But almost 100% of deaths get reported because deaths have to be investigated whether they are accidental or otherwise.
6. the main reason to collect this data is to spot trends and if necessary create programs or regulations to counter the problem.

Adding to the above: some mentioned insurance companies. In the mid 90's we tried to get insurance companies involved in reporting accidents. For a lot of reasons, mainly to do with money, they didn't want to. It would also require an amendment to the Federal Boat Safety Act. Can you imagine trying to get that through Congress? Plus that, boat owners report a lot of stuff to insurance companies as accidents that don't rise to the level the USCG requires. Anyway, it was really a mess trying to deal with insurance companies. It is not as simple as writing a regulation, which is not a simple process either. And as I'm sure you know there is a big difference between Marine Insurance, and homeowners. Most small boats, usually trailerable boats (the vast majority of accidents), are on homeowners. Cruisers are not. How do you get someone like Llyod's to give you that kind of data? So after several years of trying to work with them we dropped that project.