Predict our (sailing) Future

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by atoll

Looks like Cornwall will become the new Benidorm this summer,but punters are going have to wait for global warming to kick in if you want a suntan out of season.

Good news is the fishermen might then have a market for locally caught fish and be able to raise a sizable bounty for the head of Farange who seems to be avoiding fishing villages currently...

In other news council tax is going up to make up for the 400 million of EU funding we lost in the county.....

But the good news for many seasonal workers is its subsidised.. not such good news for the many second home owners who've bought up local property's creating housing shortages all along the South coast...
And that EU funding was just a tiny part of the UK annual membership fee being used as goodwill candy..
Council taxes are going up across the country.. lots more in Lab/Lib councils..

[wolfgal]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

I hope you are right Grant, but alongside I predict these evolutions:

1 Climate... Heavier winds will lead to new materials in boat constuction with hybird thin steel/composite/ sandwich shell laminations that offer greater strength and malleability in a lightweight package. These boats can take a pounding .

(For those on a budget ,steel becomes popular again

Sail and rigging efficiency evolves to keep sailors off the foredeck in heavy weather

Ergonomic foiling system integral to a recessed hull design offers greater lift for cruising boats, retractabile at night or in heavy weather, but offers high speeds when needed to avoid storms.

2.. Pandemics: will make international cruising far more restrictive and costly....so budget cruisers will slow down their circumnavigational schedule to stop for seasons to smell the local roses

3... Artificial Intelligence will enhance interactive virtual reality to the point where it satisfies the majority of those interested

i'm thinking along these lines too... not to mention what folks will need to pay to insure boats.


great thread!

[atoll]

Originally Posted by boatman61

But the good news for many seasonal workers is its subsidised.. not such good news for the many second home owners who've bought up local property's creating housing shortages all along the South coast...
And that EU funding was just a tiny part of the UK annual membership fee being used as goodwill candy..
Council taxes are going up across the country.. lots more in Lab/Lib councils..

What seasonal workers! they are all stuck in Poland and probably not coming back,crops,daffodils etc rotting in the fields,massive shortage of health care workers
.Brits don't want to do the work as due to the seasonality, they lose their benefits for 6 weeks if they can't find another job when that crop is picked,can't find new accommodation if they have to move around,get penalised if living in a van so they can move round for parking more than a night in one place.
Huge devaluation of the pound to pay for all the public debt,exporters can't export,7 million unemployed !!!!!!!!!
All these Brexit Perks make the pandemic seem like a minor blip

[Pelagic]

Back to sailing boys!

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by atoll

What seasonal workers! they are all stuck in Poland and probably not coming back,crops,daffodils etc rotting in the fields,massive shortage of health care workers
.Brits don't want to do the work as due to the seasonality, they lose their benefits for 6 weeks if they can't find another job when that crop is picked,can't find new accommodation if they have to move around,get penalised if living in a van so they can move round for parking more than a night in one place.
Huge devaluation of the pound to pay for all the public debt,exporters can't export,7 million unemployed !!!!!!!!!
All these Brexit Perks make the pandemic seem like a minor blip

Aww.. Shame.. no more low paid workers for the breweries and hoteliers and others to rip off and finally the locals may start getting a living wage that takes them off the dole.
Funny.. the pound seems to have done nothing but rise since Jan 1st against both the Euro and the Dollar but hey.. You likely cheered when Blair created the Minimum Wage of gbp 3.60/hr in 1998 thereby legalizing low pay for the masses and greater profits for the bosses..
Keep the commoners off the water..

[wolfgal]

i dug this article up from the Guardian, published right before/when the virus came about...

it only alludes to the storms in the beginning, but, for me, gives us a better idea of our new reality out there, globally.

beyond considering the increasing need for self-sufficiency, as well as the probable need for ways to produce one's own food and water, one thing it doesn't mention is how unpopular westerns may become...

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...rning-savannah

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

i dug this article up from the Guardian, published right before/when the virus came about...

it only alludes to the storms in the beginning, but, for me, gives us a better idea of our new reality out there, globally.

beyond considering the increasing need for self-sufficiency, as well as the probable need for ways to produce one's own food and water, one thing it doesn't mention is how unpopular westerns may become...

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...rning-savannah

In my travels it's not the locals that are the problem.. they are generally friendly and hospitable, it's the politically/financially ambitious manipulators that are the problem..
If you suit their agenda where your from is irrelevant..

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Back to sailing boys!

Personally I think the hard core sailing community will continue and adapt as they have over millennia.
Its the Low Risk crowd that will drop off.. so the market will shrink back and methinks hulls for home completion will make a comeback for the adventurers.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by wolfgal

i dug this article up from the Guardian, published right before/when the virus came about...

it only alludes to the storms in the beginning, but, for me, gives us a better idea of our new reality out there, globally.

beyond considering the increasing need for self-sufficiency, as well as the probable need for ways to produce one's own food and water, one thing it doesn't mention is how unpopular westerns may become...

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...rning-savannah

I agree, as global conditions become challenging due to climate and health variances, the stronger will stay proactive and adaptive but will no longer be safe as desperation amongst the weak, heightens

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Personally I think the hard core sailing community will continue and adapt as they have over millennia.
Its the Low Risk crowd that will drop off.. so the market will shrink back and methinks hulls for home completion will make a comeback for the adventurers.

Yes, necessity becomes the mother of invention for the hard core which is why I think home built with precut steel tough hulls will evolve for different types and budgets.

The new Arks for heavy weather or fast foil avoidance .

Who knows, maybe when they Hove-to for frequent storms in the future;
The sails furl
The sealed 20m mast has an integral snorkle that allows the boat to water balast and sink beneath the waves and you put the kettle on.
I think that would suit you Boatie[emoji4]

[Dave_S]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

This can be Dark or Bright

How has Climate changes modfied our sailing Development?

How have a series of Pandemics taken their toll?

Has Artificial Inteligence made life* virtual?

Let your Nostradamian juices flow and give use some insight![emoji33]

I believe our future will be largely unchanged.

Global warming may be a factor or not, if global warming continues it will not be as bad as some predict.

Pandemics the same, there will be some but we will cope.

Artificial intelligence I don't see as a threat, Quantum computers... maybe. When someone or organisation has the ability to hack any system we might start to run into trouble.

Longer term, way way beyond our time we will have to come to terms with the inevitability that we are not sustainable.

In our time, eat drink and be merry, nothing to worry about here.

[boatman61]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Yes, necessity becomes the mother of invention for the hard core which is why I think home built with precut steel tough hulls will evolve for different types and budgets.

The new Arks for heavy weather or fast foil avoidance .

Who knows, maybe when they Hove-to for frequent storms in the future;
The sails furl
The sealed 20m mast has an integral snorkle that allows the boat to water balast and sink beneath the waves and you put the kettle on.
I think that would suit you Boatie[emoji4]

I'll be ash scattered on the waters long before then.. or run down, sunk and drowned by a Spanish fishing boat..

[atoll]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Aww.. Shame.. no more low paid workers for the breweries and hoteliers and others to rip off and finally the locals may start getting a living wage that takes them off the dole.
Funny.. the pound seems to have done nothing but rise since Jan 1st against both the Euro and the Dollar but hey.. You likely cheered when Blair created the Minimum Wage of gbp 3.60/hr in 1998 thereby legalizing low pay for the masses and greater profits for the bosses..
Keep the commoners off the water..

Let me know when the pound gets to 1.43 euro and i don't need a visa and health insurance to visit enemy territory

[Mike OReilly]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

This can be Dark or Bright

How has Climate changes modfied our sailing Development?

How have a series of Pandemics taken their toll?

Has Artificial Inteligence made life* virtual?

Let your Nostradamian juices flow and give use some insight![emoji33]

Interesting questions Pelagic. Seems like the kind of conversation one should have in the cockpit while sipping a fine whiskey or a craft beer.

Climate change: The difficulty with climate change (even rapid change as we're experiencing now) is that it is still a slow process when compared to the human lifespan. And unless one remains in the same location for long periods, it's virtually impossible for individuals to 'see' it.

I do think it brings into question some of the tools we use. Pilot charts and traditional cyclical weather patterns are no long as predicable. So this has an impact on the cruising future. It will make distance travel in small boats more unpredictable and hence more dangerous, but the scale is still measured in centuries and decades, not years.

The pandemic has clearly taken a toll on all (or most) of us. It has forced a massive change in my life and lifestyle. And I'm sure the reverberations of this global infection will continue to ring for a decade or more.

But linked to the first question, one prediction coming from rapid climate change is that the frequency of pandemic diseases will increase. So while Covid-19 might be approaching an end, we're likely going to be hit with another one sooner than the historic norm.

AI: There are so many impacts this tsunamic change is bringing, it's hard to focus on one. When AI, and more importantly, Virtual Reality, becomes as good as the real thing, why would anyone bother to own a physical boat? Heck, why would anyone bother with physical life?

AI is going to eat most of our jobs. Dumb robots and automation in general has already replaced many blue-collar jobs. Now AI is going to take most white-collar. This will force our societies to develop new ways to distribute wealth and resources. Instead of relying on "a job" to do this, we'll need to move to some version of a universal basic income, at least as a stop-gap. Beyond that, Star Trek!

Now, where's that dram of Lagavulin you promised .

[Saleen411]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

This can be Dark or Bright

How has Climate changes modfied our sailing Development?

[emoji33]

Sky rocketing insurance rates and NON RENEWAL notices seem to be a fact of life for many sailors these days. As are more restrictive insurance rules that limit cruising areas during certain times of the year.

Recent devastation by multiple named storms is the prevalent excuse of the day. Of course the question is....IS climate change actually responsible?....not gonna open up that can of worms.