Predict our (sailing) Future

[boatman61]

Ahhh.. that's where us po' folk have it cracked.. $250/yr liability only..

[Lake-Effect]

Around here, COVID caused a surge in the use of city parks and trails, and bicycle sales went through the roof. I was quoted a 5 week wait for new bike tires. The city obliged by making more sidestreets safer for bikes, rollerbladers and walkers. I think this popularity will stick around for a while.

Given this observation, and the increased used-boat sales, and the likelihood that travel will take some time to return to pre-COVID levels, I predict that local boating will become more popular in many places.

[Pelagic]

Originally Posted by Saleen411

Sky rocketing insurance rates and NON RENEWAL notices seem to be a fact of life for many sailors these days. As are more restrictive insurance rules that limit cruising areas during certain times of the year.

Recent devastation by multiple named storms is the prevalent excuse of the day. Of course the question is....IS climate change actually responsible?....not gonna open up that can of worms.

I honestly dont get this nanny state mindset about insurance.

I guess if you inhabit areas of crowded marinas, lousy sailors with poor boat handling skills,
.... have the boat loan tied to your house mortgage.... and a relaxed attitude about being proactive to always protect your boat...
Then You feel full coverage is a necessity.

To me, it is all about accepting full responsibility for my actions in a way that would punish me dearly if I let my gaurd down.

I think it forces me to be better.

[Chotu]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

I honestly dont get this nanny state mindset about insurance.

I guess if you inhabit areas of crowded marinas, lousy sailors with poor boat handling skills,
.... have the boat loan tied to your house mortgage.... and a relaxed attitude about being proactive to always protect your boat...
Then You feel full coverage is a necessity.

To me, it is all about accepting full responsibility for my actions in a way that would punish me dearly if I let my gaurd down.

I think it forces me to be better.

Couldn’t agree more.

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by Pelagic

I honestly dont get this nanny state mindset about insurance.

It's not to protect YOU, it's to protect other people (and businesses) FROM YOU.

Eg - if you stay at a marina or club, and your boat somehow injures someone or damages another boat, that person will try to recover damages from you, and if you're insolvent, not insured, or abscond, that person will sue the marina/club, and probably successfully in many jurisdictions. So the marina/club requires you to have a minimum level of liability insurance, to give them some protection from you, and to keep their own insurance bill manageable.

"Nanny-state"... maybe, but for better or worse the principle of universally minimizing risk through insurance is well-established most places. When we bought our house 30+years ago, our lawyer actually searched the title. Nowadays... you buy title insurance, which is a bet that says "we bet you $500 or whatever that the title's actually fine, but if it isn't, we'll fix it." It's the way of the (first) world.

It's all well and good to say that you won't put other people at risk from you or your boat, and will be personally responsible should anything happen.... but if you're balking at a few hundred a year for the liability-only insurance, I'm inclined to think that you won't be able to pay for the repairs to the Lagoon that your drifting boat holes and partially sinks, or the hospital bills of the wealthy dowager that you knocked off the dock.

[Pelagic]

It's not to protect YOU, it's to protect other people (and businesses) FROM YOU.

Lake effect
Understand and agree with liability cover..
My comment was directed towards the reliance on full hull insurance.

[jackjb53]

I agree with GoingWalkAbout, AI will become more involved in navigating and sailing our boats. There is an interesting story from the BBC about how AI learned to sail Google hot air balloons. You can read it here:https://www.bbc.com/future/article/2...d-its-creators

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by jackjb53

I agree with GoingWalkAbout, AI will become more involved in navigating and sailing our boats.

... gaaaah. not on any boat I own. (til I make my first billion, anyway)

[Discovery 15797]

Interesting questions, and perspectives. It's a lazy Sunday...so here's some thoughts.

Originally Posted by Pelagic

How has Climate changes modfied our sailing Development?

There is little doubt the climate patterns around the world are in flux in unpredictable ways. Long term weather predictions are difficult at best. As someone mentioned earlier, historic pilot charts and previously reliable cruising guides (Cornell for example), may become less relevant and possibly obsolete.

Weather services such as Predict Wind, and others that offer near 'real-time' updates and weather routing will become more standard for coastal and ocean passages.

There will be no significant change in boat / sail design. The vast majority of boats rarely if ever leave the dock in bad weather, rarely out of sight of land, and even fewer make ocean crossings or stay in remote locations very long; esp. after the rally is over. So, there is little incentive for builders to change.

Originally Posted by Pelagic

How have a series of Pandemics taken their toll?

What "series" of pandemics? If you are referring to the first SARS virus in 2003, it was quickly contained by early identification and strict quarantine procedures of those infected. MERS in 2012, was not officially a pandemic and was also quickly constrained using similar strict quarantine procedures. In the case of the SARS-COV-2 virus, it seems the WHO and CDC did not heed the warnings and advice of the previous viral outbreaks (SARS and MERS), and instead of strict quarantining of infected individuals, there were confusing policy guidelines and haphazard quarantine procedures. It's interesting that SARS-COV caused a higher mortality rate compared to SARS-COV-2, but fewer deaths overall, and unlike influenza that affects virtually all demographics equally, this pandemic predominantly targeted the weakest (health wise) among us. (This is not to be morbid, or unsympathetic to those who lost loved ones due to this virus.)

Human's are both incredibly resilient and incredibly stupid. Within 3-5 years people will be saying..."Do you remember that whole Covid lockdown nonsense?" Some people will become better prepared and work to improve their overall health and build their immune systems (I'm a firm believer in a spoonful of dirt a week). The vast majority of people will simply fall into the same patterns of life and hope for the government to save them and tell them what to do when the proverbial ca-ca hits the fan again; be it natural or man-made disaster.

WRT cruising...this could be good. With high costs of travel, it is possible the hoards of "tourists on a boat" heading across oceans or remote islands will diminish. (This I pray for.) Cruisers will likely spend more than a few weeks in one location, and hopefully become more engaged with the local communities. Of course this means that all those tourists on boats will end up in anchorages that are open thus leading to extreme over-crowding, increased pollution, and depletion of resources available to local communities.

Entry procedures will likely be more restrictive (prior approval, fewer visits) and tightly enforced for the near future (1-5 years); especially in islands and island nations with limited medical capacity.

I also think more nations will start requiring AIS aboard all vessels visiting their waters, and require prior permission before embarking.

Finally, I suspect the good ol' Yellow Card will be required for presentation along with passport for the foreseeable future. And I suspect some island nations will require people to submit to a PCR test upon arrival and quarantine aboard their vessels until negative test results for all crew. Little is known about the long-term effects of the mRNA vaccine and the SARS-COV-2 virus mutations, so it is possible we may require periodic boosters similar to the influenza vaccine.

Originally Posted by Pelagic

Has Artificial Inteligence made life* virtual?

I suspect life is already "virtual" for many people who are glued to the "idiot box" (be it a television watching "reality [sic] shows" or a computer screen watching youtube buskers.)

Will AI creep into boats? It already has. In my lifetime I have gone from learning dead-reckoning and using a sextant to plot courses on paper charts, (how many of you download the Local Notice to Mariners? How many even know about it?), to Loran C, to GPS, to chart plotters. We can certainly argue that the AI used in AIS and weather routing software is becoming more common place as well.

Someone mentioned something about AI controlled sail trim. I suspect people who buy a boat with AI controlled sail trim would be the same people who plot a multi-waypoint course on a computer in their home, download it to a chart plotter, engage the autopilot, and then go below to have lunch, or a proverbial "roll in the hay." (BTW...these are likely the same boats we read about that are often aground, or hitting other boats.) Maybe that may happen in the far future for the super wealthy, but as for me...I'll stick with real skills and experience to manage my boat's sail trim.

[DMF Sailing]

Originally Posted by grantmc

2. Go sailing and not make a movie about it.

The world would be a better place. And if I can't have that, at least let it be so that all movies drop that light techno beat and/or the atmospheric guitar.

(In this comparative paradise, Eric Aanderaa may do whatever he likes.)

[Clivevon]

Originally Posted by boatman61

Its all right for you lot enjoying the perks of Brexit.. us lot stuck in the EU ain't gonna see the jab before summer..

Choices, choices...

[waterman46]

Originally Posted by GoingWalkabout

AI used in advanced electronic winches. For example sensors relaying wind shifts and intelligently adjusting sales. Sheets for the mainsail for instance will be on separate electronic winches that are synced for respective pull and release. Greater use of predictive AI in course plotting synced with multiple weather, waves and forecasts as well as real time data. AI will be able to plot as well as adjust course based on instant processing of data. But the most important advance will be in the area of anti collision. For instance long range radar picking up other boats on your AI plotted course will automatically launch your on deck bow mounted sub sonic torpedoe. I'm very excited about this AI controlled automatic navigation anti obstruction device. However for the less confrontational effeminate sailors they may prefer using AI Radar detection to automatically adjust sail trim and course. Just some simple ideas for starters.

Might as well stay at home and enjoy sailing on my computer. It's really safe, I can sleep whenever I want, and instantly get the views of any beautiful anchorage I wish to imagine myself in.

I do like the idea of the torpedo to blast the pirates - hey that would be a great computer game!

[hpeer]

So, as we move to a carbon free culture, what happens to epoxy? Or Dacron? Or PE?

[Lake-Effect]

Originally Posted by hpeer

So, as we move to a carbon free culture, what happens to epoxy? Or Dacron? Or PE?

The idea is a carbon-neutral future. ie not constantly adding sequestered carbon back into the environment. And also not simply burning up a finite resource as quickly as possible. Ditto for single-use plastics.

This would hopefully mean an adequate supply of petrochemicals for durable uses of epoxy, Dacron, PE. etc. Also, it's now possible to synthesize some plastic-making chemicals from 'renewable' carbon resources like agricultural and wood waste.

[Chris Cringle]

Well, I am afraid that being a cruiser, as we once were, will have a lot in common with being a civil war soldier or a 'mountain man'. You can't be the real thing, but you might get to be a 'reenactor'