Hurricane Season-2021

[AA3JY]

Unofficial start-May 15th

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...id=hplocalnews

[LittleWing77]

Originally Posted by AA3JY

Unofficial start-May 15th

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/to...id=hplocalnews

Will be an interesting query to see if it impacts insurance dates, won't it?

My understanding is that boats need to be North by June 1st to maintain coverage.

LittleWing77

[sailorboy1]

Has there ever been a year where the lairs, i mean forecasters, said “hey we don't think there is going to be much hurricane activity this year”?

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Has there ever been a year where the lairs, i mean forecasters, said “hey we don't think there is going to be much hurricane activity this year”?

Yes ➥ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...-archive.shtml
May forecasts:
2001: Normal
2002: Near Normal
2009: Near Normal
2012: Near Normal
2014: Near or Below Normal
2015: Below Normal
2016: Near Normal
2018: Near Normal
2019: Near Normal

The three-decade span. to determine a Climate Normal, is established by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and is re-established every 10 years. The United States adopted 30-year time periods, to follow the procedure set by the World Meteorological Organization, from 1901-1930.

At the conclusion of 2020, a new 30-year window, from 1991-2020, was established, to analyze the recent "climate normal." Previously, the timeframe of 1981-2010 had been used.

Compared to the 1981-2010 range, the new counts have increased by 12-19%.

From 1991-2020, an average hurricane season produced 14.4 named storms, of which an average of 7.2 developed into hurricanes, and 3.2 of those storms became major hurricanes.

In the less-than-60-year window, the quantity of named storms has increased by 44%. Hurricanes have increased by more than 26%, and major hurricanes have leaped, in annual frequency by 46%.

However, despite the increase in quantity of storms, analysis following the 2020 season showed that the ACE Index, short for the Accumulated Cyclone Energy index, doesn't indicate that the recently busy hurricane seasons are necessarily more intense. ACE calculates the intensity of a storm, and while an increased amount of storms will boost a season's total ACE, the increase in detectable short-lived, and weaker storms, has actually dragged season totals downward, even as the ACE for individual storms continues getting higher.

“The new U.S. Climate Normals are here. What do they tell us about climate change?” ~ NOAA
➥ https://www.noaa.gov/news/new-us-cli...climate-change

[LittleWing77]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Has there ever been a year where the lairs, i mean forecasters, said “hey we don't think there is going to be much hurricane activity this year”?

Sailorboy, you are SUCH a curmudgeon!

Where to next? Will you be leaving the cruddy, horrid Bahamas and going North somewhere before June 1st?

Or maybe you are departing today to squeeze under that new May 15th threshold...?

Do tell,
LittleWing77

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by LittleWing77

Sailorboy, you are SUCH a curmudgeon!

Where to next? Will you be leaving the cruddy, horrid Bahamas and going North somewhere before June 1st?

Or maybe you are departing today to squeeze under that new May 15th threshold...?

Do tell,
LittleWing77

Actually i have no insurance requirement regarding hurricanes at all. The last 3 years i have spent the season in The Zone and not faced a hurricane. But the next year where i was the year before got hammered. But back when i lived in the Northeast I faced numerous hurricanes.

Meanwhile you can not believe the weather forecast 4 days away. Why believe it 4 months away?

[gonesail]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Has there ever been a year where the lairs, i mean forecasters, said “hey we don't think there is going to be much hurricane activity this year”?

they can't even get the 3 day forecasts right

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

... Meanwhile you can not believe the weather forecast 4 days away. Why believe it 4 months away?

They're NOT weather forecasts.
If you desire exactitude, consult your astrologer [or newhaul].

NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions:
NOAA does not make seasonal hurricane landfall predictions. Hurricane landfalls are largely determined by the weather patterns in place as the hurricane approaches, which are predictable when the storm is within several days of making landfall.
Nature of this Outlook and the "likely" ranges of activity:
This outlook is probabilistic, meaning the stated "likely" ranges of activity have a certain likelihood of occurring. The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. The ranges do not represent the total possible activity seen in past similar years.
This outlook is based on 1) predictions of large-scale climate factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity, and 2) climate models that directly predict seasonal hurricane activity.

[sailorboy1]

Whatever, it really isn't important to me to “discuss” things that have same odds of being right as ............

[mjscottinnc]

There is one instance in time where I have totality believed a release from a seasonally hurricane prediction center, the university of Colorado, they said they could predict the upcoming hurricane season... tried for 4 or 5 years and realized they weren’t even close and stopped trying. That is a scientist I can respect. The rest are just wind chimes spinning in the wind.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Whatever, it really isn't important to me to “discuss” things that have same odds of being right as ............

Originally Posted by mjscottinnc

There is one instance in time where I have totality believed a release from a seasonally hurricane prediction center, the university of Colorado, they said they could predict the upcoming hurricane season... tried for 4 or 5 years and realized they weren’t even close and stopped trying. That is a scientist I can respect. The rest are just wind chimes spinning in the wind.

I supppose it may come as a surprise to you that the CSU team produces the longest continuouslt-running seasonal Atlantic hurricane forecast.

Colorado State University has issued forecasts of Atlantic basin hurricane activity for over 36 years - and their STILL doing it.

➥ https://www.cruisersforum.com/forums...ml#post3403586


Following the pioneering work of Prof. William Gray, our group continues the long CSU tradition in forecasting with continually improving techniques for predicting tropical cyclone activity powered by new research.

Dr. William Gray started seasonal hurricane forecasts in 1984, but he’d been in the atmospheric science department for 20 years prior to that. He did a lot of other meaningful work with hurricanes other than seasonal forecasts, although that’s what he might be best known for in the general public.


Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity - 24 May, 1984
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forec...0s/1984-06.pdf

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2021 - as of 8 April 2021
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2021-04.pdf
➥ https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html

“CSU Hurricane Forecasts: Where’s the value?” ~ by Paul Huttner April 7, 2010
➥ https://www.mprnews.org/story/2010/0...eres-the-value

[sailorboy1]

Great. My forecast is the season will be reduced hurricanes of concern.

I have the same 50% chance of being right or wrong. Please base your long term plans accordingly.

[GordMay]

Originally Posted by sailorboy1

Great. My forecast is the season will be reduced hurricanes of concern.
I have the same 50% chance of being right or wrong. Please base your long term plans accordingly.

Don't read well, or much, do you?
No you don't.

The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 7 out of 10 seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year.

[sailorboy1]

Originally Posted by GordMay

Don't read well, or much, do you?
No you don't.

[

I read very well. But no i don't read well chasing links of little interest to me from people looking to win a useless word battle. I just dont click and read them.

So maybe i was wrong and there really is a 70% chance of being 50% right or wrong.

[AndyEss]

Thank you Gord for introducing the concept of probability to CF members. Casinos never predict how a single card or roulette ball will fall, but competent casino owners make bank decade in and decade out.
Only a fool goes bankrupt owning a casino.