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Old 27-08-2010, 13:34   #31
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Originally Posted by SaltyMonkey View Post
Ok bottom line question. Here goes.

Should I take all my cash savings and buy a boat this or next year, or should I hold onto my cash because the world is going down the toilet?
I think that's the wrong question for this forum.

The correct question is:

"Should I take all my cash and buy a boat because all the markets are going to crash and default. Or should I take all my cash and buy a boat because the world is going down the toilet, and cash is about to be inflated to worthless. Or should I take all my money and buy a boat, because nothing is going to crash, and everythign is perfect!"

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Old 27-08-2010, 14:06   #32
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ROFL!
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Old 27-08-2010, 14:35   #33
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You know things are bad when your sailboat is holding value better than your market investments.
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Old 27-08-2010, 14:38   #34
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What will the market do? Fluctuate.

If you need the money in a few years, put it in bonds. If you want to make more long term, keep it in the market. Never get greedy. Speculation != investing.
RH if you have money in bonds and the interest rates go up you lose principle. I don't have faith in rates going up fast so it is not a big worry but wouldn't it be better to have that money in a mutual fund. I don't know that much about finanace. (see I can't even spell it)


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I wouldn't be surprised to see 7,500 on the DJ in 12 months. But the people I feel sorry for are the real estate owners/investors. Can you believe that "0", yes ZERO, new homes over $750K sold last month! There are some really scary numbers in here:

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Burning Down the House; New Home Sales Consensus 330K, Actual 276K, a Record Low; Nationwide, Zero New Homes Sold Above 750K
I have attached a file from Redfin that clearly shows two houses within a mile of each other that closed in July for over $750k. This is one neighborhood that I watch closely for sales comps in San Diego. Doodles I could be wrong but I don't think that your article is accurate. I am a proponent pf the theory that there are two economies right now. One for those with jobs and lots of money and the other for those who don't have money. The economy of the former is doing fine and people are not spending as wildly as they did two years ago. The economy of the former is in a depression with little hope of getting out unless the jobs market turns around. Who knows what is going to happen? No one!!!! Some economist will guess right and they will crown him as this years Prom King and he will never get it right in the rest of his career. Understand what you invest in. Don't speculate.
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Old 27-08-2010, 14:42   #35
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The market is driven by two things, the fundamentals and market sentiment. Sometimes the market is weighted towards one and sometimes towards the other. The fundamentals are not all that bad right now. P/E ratios are not ridiculously low or high. It's the market sentiment that is causing this. Market sentiment is caused by news and the outlook which does not look too promising right now nor does it look catastrophic.

The market historically reacts more than what is justified because uncertainty always scares the market. Keep that in mind.

I would not put money in to the market right now nor would I pull it out. I have money in the market right now which I am going to leave there long term.
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Old 27-08-2010, 14:52   #36
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Old 27-08-2010, 15:03   #37
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Ok bottom line question. Here goes.

Should I take all my cash savings and buy a boat this or next year, or should I hold onto my cash because the world is going down the toilet?
I dunno, but I have a conflict, frankly. To buy a boat and have a cruise, or, if the world is going to hell, buy a farm and keep the small boat instead. If cash becomes worthless, I could trade eggs, wool and beef for a boat, maybe?
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Old 27-08-2010, 16:42   #38
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I dunno, but I have a conflict, frankly. To buy a boat and have a cruise, or, if the world is going to hell, buy a farm and keep the small boat instead. If cash becomes worthless, I could trade eggs, wool and beef for a boat, maybe?
THE MARKET IS UP BUY BUY BUY BOAT!!!@!@!@!@
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Old 27-08-2010, 16:47   #39
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RH if you have money in bonds and the interest rates go up you lose principle. I don't have faith in rates going up fast so it is not a big worry but wouldn't it be better to have that money in a mutual fund. I don't know that much about finanace. (see I can't even spell it)




I have attached a file from Redfin that clearly shows two houses within a mile of each other that closed in July for over $750k. This is one neighborhood that I watch closely for sales comps in San Diego. Doodles I could be wrong but I don't think that your article is accurate. I am a proponent pf the theory that there are two economies right now. One for those with jobs and lots of money and the other for those who don't have money. The economy of the former is doing fine and people are not spending as wildly as they did two years ago. The economy of the former is in a depression with little hope of getting out unless the jobs market turns around. Who knows what is going to happen? No one!!!! Some economist will guess right and they will crown him as this years Prom King and he will never get it right in the rest of his career. Understand what you invest in. Don't speculate.
It is NEW HOME sales, not existing homes that the article talks about. Also statistically for the purposes of that info 1-499 homes comes out as zero on that data so there may have been some homes that sold for over $750k. Nonetheless, the housing market is hurting. Here's what that means for those who want to sell their boat-- only an all cash buyer can buy it. Loans are tough and home equity loans are non-existent. I'll bet many who financed a $200k plus boat, did so with either a downpayment or an outright loan that came from their home equity. That's not happening today so many potential buyers are no longer potential buyers.

As for the poster wondering about when to buy-- probably doesn't matter, boats will be cheaper next year but your nest egg will likely be smaller too. Don't worry, be happy and just do it.
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Old 27-08-2010, 18:05   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SaltyMonkey View Post
Ok bottom line question. Here goes.

Should I take all my cash savings and buy a boat this or next year, or should I hold onto my cash because the world is going down the toilet?
I wouldn't wait if I found the "right" boat, but if you wait .... there may be a "better right" boat that comes along.

It's a hard call. I bought my Pretorian in July 2009, and today they are still mostly listed at the same general prices. We negotiated about a 18% discount if I remember. What kind of discounts can you get today? It's all over the place I suspect.

I'd buy if I found the right boat, but not worry if I had to wait. More boats will be coming on the market as the economic situation continues to decline.
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Old 27-08-2010, 18:59   #41
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We bought last summer. Financially, we were pretty sure it would be better to wait, but we looked at the boat anyway (shopping for the big boat has been a long time hobby). We both felt comfortable on Kimarah and liked her unusual layout. We figured the odds of a similar boat being available later on was pretty small to non-existent.

Since the boat had been on the market for some time, we didn't rush to make an offer. Wouldn't you know, we ended up bidding against another buyer. Oh well.

Amazingly (seeing as there were only 30-odd built), another Prout Manta 38 has come and gone on Yachtworld for a significantly lower price than we paid. It made me sigh to see it, but that boat didn't have the three nice staterooms that we have.

Sometimes, you just gotta do it.

Carrie
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Old 27-08-2010, 19:32   #42
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I think it will probably go down like this.

I'll be back east on a trip. I'll just get up one Friday morning, check the listings, drive around Virginia and MD looking at some of them for a day or two over a weekend, and buy something by Sunday afternoon. No going to Florida, NE, NW, SW, Carib, Guatamala, Mexico etc. etc. ad nauseam.

Sort of like options and futures...
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Old 27-08-2010, 20:27   #43
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The OP wanted opinions/guesses as to market direction and range. My crystal ball says:

Dow to approach 2008 lows in the next 18 months, then wander higher, slowly, for the next 48 months. Housing to fall another 15% - 25% as a deflationary cycle sets us up for a new round of 70's style inflation due to money supply expansion. Unemployment to remain officially high at 8 - 10%, while actual numbers (including those who gave up) remain in the 16 - 20% range.

Boats remain cheap, because people who can't buy cars, houses, or food can't buy boats. Unemployed people don't spend much, which reduces demand for EVERYthing, which puts more people out of work.

In short, it ain't the end of the world, but it's gonna be painful and hard for awhile.

John
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Old 27-08-2010, 20:50   #44
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We are closing on our "Next" boat, next week. So it will be two boats for awhile.

I like the two economy idea, except I don't think the haves are spending like they did 304 years ago, but they are still spending.

what is going to happen in the next few years is anyone's guess. Me, I am just going to keep living life. We are putting our home on the market in the next few weeks too, at "the worst possible time" according to most. We have fair hopes it will sell quickly, as it is active and passive solar, and people are much more into that then when we moved in 6 years ago.

Chris
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Old 27-08-2010, 21:49   #45
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ViribusUnitis View Post
I think that's the wrong question for this forum.

The correct question is:

"Should I take all my cash and buy a boat because all the markets are going to crash and default. Or should I take all my cash and buy a boat because the world is going down the toilet, and cash is about to be inflated to worthless. Or should I take all my money and buy a boat, because nothing is going to crash, and everythign is perfect!"

= YES


Sometimes stripping out all the variables clarifies the question and makes finding the answer easier.

- Dow will be 7500 in a year - Dow will be 15,000 in a year
- Housing market will be up in a year - Housing market will be down in a year
- Boats will increase in value in a year - Boats will decrease in value in a year

So far I am really clarifying my winning strategy...

Buy a boat, get going. In a year you will be happy and full or happy and starving.

Quote:
By a boat, get going. In a year you will be happy and full or happy and starving.
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