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Old 20-01-2016, 11:21   #1171
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pirate Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by a64pilot View Post
I went to my annual FAA Inspectors renewal a week ago, there I learned that every time you board an airliner, you had a 1 in 100 Million chance of being killed.
Lottery at that time was 1 in 250 million.
Depending on where Dagny is, this up coming storm may drive her ashore?
Doubt it very much.. my take is she's slowly being pushed towards the Sargasso.. once there she'll join all the other odds n sods drifting around.. and around..
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Old 20-01-2016, 11:22   #1172
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

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Originally Posted by a64pilot View Post
I went to my annual FAA Inspectors renewal a week ago, there I learned that every time you board an airliner, you had a 1 in 100 Million chance of being killed.
Lottery at that time was 1 in 250 million.
Depending on where Dagny is, this up coming storm may drive her ashore?
To put the odds of 1:1000 into perspective, if you ride on a scheduled airline for 1200 hours the chances of dying are 1:1000. (https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.riskcomm.com/visualaids/riskscale/datasources.php&ved=0ahUKEwjNzcXD_LjKAhUJ2mMKHVPjB 5MQFggbMAA&usg=AFQjCNFhn1_HHPYN1yFfZVHlnNrXVJAd4A& sig2=Sz0i3M4f5YwDdYiPTNGNpQ)

If the odds of waiting around for Gil's boat to be found by random chance are 1:1000, it would take about 1000 years to be certain it was found.

That's why looking in likely spots, such as where previous boats lost in similar circumstances have been found, is needed to improve the chances.

Is there a database of locations where boats drifting in the Atlandtic have been lost and found? Can we make one?
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Old 20-01-2016, 11:28   #1173
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by boatman61 View Post
Doubt it very much.. my take is she's slowly being pushed towards the Sargasso.. once there she'll join all the other odds n sods drifting around.. and around..
I think this happened quite early, most likely never xrossed into the stream and eddied out deeper into the edge in the ATL. All this coast chasing stuff was a mistaken belief based on dead wreckoning w/ a high error rate.
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Old 20-01-2016, 11:45   #1174
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Hello,

A quick note to let everyone know I am still here, still hoping. I went back to France to spend some time with my parents. I had not seen them in four years, and they are getting older. Here is as good a place as any to wait for a possible recovery, better actually. I want Dagny back, badly. My trip had barely started, I can't leave it at that. Everything that I can think of has been done, and I thank all the involved parties for their help. This thread took some tangents so I stayed away. I would very much like it to remain open, so please post only relevant replies.

I don't feel that I need to defend myself here in any way. I never claimed experience I didn't have. My decisions are mine, there isn't anyone else in my shoes.. If Dagny isn't found that would be, is a terrible loss, but I left the dock and crossed the Gulf Stream. It's not much for sure, but it beats watching TV.. I'll try again soon or later.

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Old 20-01-2016, 11:57   #1175
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Hey, there Gil,

Thanks for showing up again: lots of us out here hoping with you for a sighting and a salvage effort.

Thank you, too, for sharing your courage and integrity with us.

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Old 20-01-2016, 12:00   #1176
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

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Continue the search -- how exactly? Stay in motels along the coast, burning up money, and go out swimming every day hoping to run into the boat, or look longingly at the horizon from various points? Not having any idea even what state he should be in? Obviously pointless.


He did exactly what I would do, which is go home to regroup and earn some money, in order to be ready to fly back and deal with the salvage in case the boat washes up somewhere or is found.
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Old 20-01-2016, 12:08   #1177
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Gil, glad you checked back with us. I hope you get a sighting and recovery of Dagny no matter how long the wait.

Keep up the positive attitude.



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Old 20-01-2016, 12:08   #1178
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Quote:
Originally Posted by gilgsn View Post
Hello,

A quick note to let everyone know I am still here, still hoping. I went back to France to spend some time with my parents. I had not seen them in four years, and they are getting older. Here is as good a place as any to wait for a possible recovery, better actually. I want Dagny back, badly. My trip had barely started, I can't leave it at that. Everything that I can think of has been done, and I thank all the involved parties for their help. This thread took some tangents so I stayed away. I would very much like it to remain open, so please post only relevant replies.

I don't feel that I need to defend myself here in any way. I never claimed experience I didn't have. My decisions are mine, there isn't anyone else in my shoes.. If Dagny isn't found that would be, is a terrible loss, but I left the dock and crossed the Gulf Stream. It's not much for sure, but it beats watching TV.. I'll try again soon or later.

Gil
Hi Gil and welcome back.

Sorry your thread took a turn down hill but rest assured you've got a lot of people on here rooting for you.

And yes you have no need to apologize. I would wager that 90% if not 99% of the boaters on this forum have at one time or another made similar decisions in anchoring or passage making or some other aspect of cruising that might have resulted in a similar tragedy but luck was in their favor.

And of course it makes perfect sense to fly home and wait for news there. It isn't that much longer travel time to reach some location on the US east coast from France than it would be from the Bahamas or some motel in a small town in Florida. Plus it's free and you get to see the family.
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Old 20-01-2016, 12:10   #1179
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Still rooting for you, Gil. Godspeed in the continued search.
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Old 20-01-2016, 12:12   #1180
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

I looked out of curiosity about the W32 Satori that was abandoned in the "Perfect Storm"
Owner did everything logical that could be done to find her, including hiring different airplanes, found her two or three times by air, but couldn't find her in the water (aircraft were not GPS equipped).
Finally found beached at a State Park in North Carolina I believe, but my take away was owner spent a total of $10,000 in the search and recovery, and that was back in 91 I think?
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Old 20-01-2016, 13:01   #1181
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

I also feel that Gil has nothing to apologize for, to anyone. Now that he has explained the situation about his parents, I would have done the same in his shoes.

Still hoping it turns up, hopefully it gets brought in by someone in NC or similar and not sighted out in the middle of the Atlantic.
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Old 20-01-2016, 13:11   #1182
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pirate Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Hey Gil... Welcome back and Yes.. good move heading home..
Ignore the critical bits.. me included.. we tend to do that.. however no malice is intended in the main.
I too hope she's sighted and recovered for you.. however since I developed wrinkle's I lean toward pragmatism..
Keep smiling..
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Old 20-01-2016, 19:15   #1183
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

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Originally Posted by a64pilot View Post
Gil has stated I believe that he had Solar charging his bank, boat was closed up.
So no water ingress and a charged bank to keep the bilge pump working. Assuming Solar stays undamaged, she shouldn't sink, not unless really severe weather?
Where do these lost boats go?
Westsail in the book perfect storm if I remember right washed up in North Carolina, was salvaged and is still out sailing?

Hmmm, 26' boat unmanned boat in the North Atlantic in winter. I hope for the best.


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Old 21-01-2016, 11:26   #1184
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

Long shot but saw this info on a private site... Boat stuck and appears to be taking on water in big lagoon at Saint Andrew State Park Panama City Florida. I asked if any chance of being Gils and the answer was... It's white with a blue stripe like a Morgan. Size wise I think she looks smaller than 26". Can't copy her picture which was taken from shore. Can't tell if flush decks or even canvas color. US Coastguard is aware of boat and it's situation, would they connect the two if they are related? We are west coat so no local knowledge or ability.
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Old 21-01-2016, 11:39   #1185
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Re: Tragedy Strikes.

monroe0, that sounds interesting. Can you post a link to the site?

Oh, & glad to see you checking back in Gil. Also glad you're home with the parents at a time like this. It's good for both of you. There's no sense loitering around Florida.
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