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Old 13-10-2016, 11:53   #1
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Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

Latest Marine Forecast for Oregon Coast - Washington and Northern California are the same or even more interesting. Five days of swells over 13' coming from the direction a south bound boat is headed.

Today (Thursday October 13, 2016)
S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt...rising to 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 14 ft dominant period 15 seconds. Rain.
Tonight
S wind 35 to 45 kt with gusts 55 to 60 kt... Becoming SW 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt after midnight. Combined seas 24 ft dominant period 17 seconds... Subsiding to 21 ft dominant period 16 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Fri
SW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 19 ft dominant period 16 seconds. Rain in the morning...then showers and a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri Night
SW wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves SW 5 ft at 6 seconds. W swell 14 ft at 14 seconds. Showers.
Sat
S wind 30 to 35 kt with gusts to 40 kt...rising to 40 to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 15 ft dominant period 14 seconds...building to 24 ft dominant period 14 seconds in the afternoon. Rain.
Sat Night
SW wind 40 to 50 kt with gusts to 55 kt...easing to 35 to 40 kt with gusts to 45 kt after midnight. Combined seas 34 ft dominant period 14 seconds... Subsiding to 32 ft dominant period 14 seconds after midnight. Rain.
Sun
SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 7 ft. W swell 22 ft.
Mon
SW wind 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft. W swell 13 ft.

This is from a 963 Mb low that will move up the coast from Northern California to Vancouver Island with hurricane force winds. Yet - there is nothing in the news about it. I guess that is why so many people do not understand the intensity of the Pacific NW storms - they are so common they are not newsworthy.

Minor Detail/Reminder

The significant wave height is the average of the largest One Third. One in 1,000 waves will be TWICE the significant height. With a 15-second period that means one wave every four hours will be twice the significant height or over 50' for most of Saturday and Sunday. And over 35' from Thursday afternoon to Monday morning.
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Old 13-10-2016, 12:02   #2
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

dang.... reef!
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Old 13-10-2016, 12:08   #3
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

Check the weather fax

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/marine/nepacificbrief.shtml
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Old 13-10-2016, 12:54   #4
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Re: Is this why sailing along Wasihington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

I used to tow between Texada on the north of Vancouver island and Portland or.
Six day round trip. You actually get used to this wx, (that is, if you can get used to being tossed out of your bunk too often). The trouble is the bar is often closed and you have to steam in circles for hours and hours outside waiting for the right conditions to get in. You know all you have to do is run the bar and things will calm down and you can eat without chasing your food, just have to persevere.

Actually, I am happy I am not doing that now...

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Old 13-10-2016, 13:05   #5
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

35 foot seas predicted in the next few days... on the coast. Not that unusual in Oct and Nov.
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Old 13-10-2016, 13:18   #6
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

Funny I just mentioned our storms seem to come around Columbus Day. Do you think it's the Native American spirits getting back at us?

Last night was pretty windy and wet.


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Old 13-10-2016, 13:23   #7
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

Looks to me like it would have been a good time to move north with this southerly, at least in the days before this got too close to the coast. Just a matter of picking those weather windows and ETAs wisely, right?
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Old 14-10-2016, 10:21   #8
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

Spent a lot of time in that stuff. Try to avoid it. Used to seek it. Watching Bellingham Bay right now. Short waves.

Knew an old Dutchman who would refer to this as "A bit of a breeze".
We used to run charters from Hawaii to Victoria.
Soon the Around the Sound race will happen. Early November. Great fun.
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Old 14-10-2016, 10:26   #9
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

What was it a couple of years when 4 or so guys had to be rescued off their boat trying to get from Washington/Vancouver to San Francisco? I think they just got beat to death over a 4-5 day period of intense weather. They literally were exhausted to the point of not being able to function the water had been so rough. Chime in if you remember more about the story. There ain't nothing passive about the Pacific this time of year....
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Old 14-10-2016, 10:37   #10
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

News reports winds recorded on Oregon coast Thursday night. 103 mph. Last week, we had 57 mph from the South tear through here. Great sailing between storms though. LOL


p.s. the night we had 57 mph here, two sailboats were lost off Washington, a 42' and a 50', all crew saved!
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Old 14-10-2016, 10:38   #11
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

100 knots I heard off Oregon coast today? Maybe I'll put in one reef.
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Old 14-10-2016, 10:44   #12
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

As a side note, SV Watercolor returning to Victoria. Canada after leaving Hilo. Hawaii on August 1st is overdue and missing. Very sad.
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Old 14-10-2016, 10:47   #13
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jkindredpdx View Post
Funny I just mentioned our storms seem to come around Columbus Day. Do you think it's the Native American spirits getting back at us?

Last night was pretty windy and wet.


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Don't discount old sayings because equinoxial storms can be the similar time each year and can really usher in the next season.

So as much as some are baloney in some parts of the world "Red Sky at Night" in the parts of the world where they were started may well be true.

Some old fisherman's lore, and Indian/native inhabitants etc in different areas and countries, are good to listen to and assess.


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Old 14-10-2016, 11:01   #14
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

I'm so very glad we got up here by mid September (left SF on Aug. 8th). Not any fun at all outside now. There is a remains of a typhoon hitting tomorrow. This is a three-in-a-row set of storms. Nasty stuff, and by far from "normal" this time of year. Batten down the thingamabobs.
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Old 14-10-2016, 11:14   #15
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Re: Is this why sailing along Washington/Oregon Coast in the fall is discouraged?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jackdale View Post
That's about the ugliest Pacific 48 hour surface forecast I've seen in a long time..... and I was flying and fishing in Alaska for over 25 years.
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