Used catamaran prices, availability during recession or crisis?

[letsgetsailing3]

Originally Posted by owly

The stock market is so out of touch with reality that it's almost a joke!

How so?


I mean, stocks are down 30-40%.

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by letsgetsailing3

How so?


I mean, stocks are down 30-40%.

A set of extremely negative news today like massive increase in unemployment much higher than anticipated, corona getting worse in the US with chaos on the horizon, and companies stopping production and closing their doors should be enough to drive stocks lower.

Fundamentally I don't think we reached the bottom yet because nobody has even the slightest idea when this CV chaos ends. I don't think anybody believes the POTUS his comments of reopening soon, because he is obviously clueless, too.

But someone says "I'll cover this with tons of fiat money" and stocks rise 15%.

[Byrdman]

Yep, the government is giving out a bunch of $$ and Wall Street is partying like its 1999!

Socialism for the rich and capitalism for the working class. I wish someone over here would read up a little on french history. Specifically around 1789.

[Barra]

^^^^

Markets are forward looking animals I'm sure you know that.

2 weeks ago they had priced in the jump in unemployment etc we are starting to just see now.

Now they have moved onto the new news which is stimulus being much larger than expected, possible cures quicker than thought and most importantly a shift in political emphasis in the US that makes it clear the self inflected part of the economic damage will not drag on.

Other countries will watch how that goes and either follow or not. Love or hate trump hes showing leadership.

Personally I think markets have gotten ahead of themselves but it isn't at all surprising really.

Longer term the real concern is not the virus it's the debt we have piled on to offset our shutdowns. That's a slow burn though but ultimately will cause far more harm.

[smj]

Originally Posted by Barra

^^^^

Markets are forward looking animals I'm sure you know that.

2 weeks ago they had priced in the jump in unemployment etc we are starting to just see now.

Now they have moved onto the new news which is stimulus being much larger than expected, possible cures quicker than thought and most importantly a shift in political emphasis in the US that makes it clear the self inflected part of the economic damage will not drag on.

Other countries will watch how that goes and either follow or not. Love or hate trump hes showing leadership.

Personally I think markets have gotten ahead of themselves but it isn't at all surprising really.

Longer term the real concern is not the virus it's the debt we have piled on to offset our shutdowns. That's a slow burn though but ultimately will cause far more harm.

Trumps leadership is focused entirely on the economy.

[Barra]

Originally Posted by smj

Trumps leadership is focused entirely on the economy.

trump always brings out extremes from either side

Entirely on the economy? No.

Emphasis of economy vs vulnerable deaths trade off? Yes

Trust me all other leaders will eventually swing to the economy trade off or bankrupt their countries. Its just a question of when. Trumps gone early and the rest will watch how that goes while we sit at home in stone age economies.

[smj]

Originally Posted by Barra

trump always brings out extremes from either side



Entirely on the economy? No.



Emphasis of economy vs vulnerable deaths trade off? Yes



Trust me all other leaders will eventually swing to the economy trade off or bankrupt their countries. Its just a question of when. Trumps gone early and the rest will watch how that goes while we sit at home in stone age economies.

Entirely on the economy? Yes.

[Barra]

Originally Posted by smj

Entirely on the economy? Yes.

ahh US politics.

Ill leave ya to it!

[smj]

Originally Posted by Barra

ahh US politics.



Ill leave ya to it!

Yes US politics. And if you know US politics you would know Trump is all about the economy........and himself.

[geoleo]

Originally Posted by Barra

hes joking.

Theres a line between warning others not to move too quick to buy based on the last time around and gloating over a deadly situation.

PS dont you owe me a dinner from our bet about the euro a few years back??? something about it going to crash past parity to USD to 80c or something???

You do seem to move to extremes in times of crisis geo!

I will ship you a dinner of Aussie mutton Meanwhile euro is headed to par USD

[geoleo]

Originally Posted by owly

I'm not sure there is any rush.............. The fallout from this will last a long time.


The US economy is liable to be in ruins because of the stupidity of our president..... too little too late...........and his determination to reopen everything by Easter..... which is far too soon. The resultant spike in cases will lead to total chaos. We are already seeing bankruptcies, people unable to pay rent or make mortgage payments, car payments, etc. The temptation to relax restrictions too soon is almost irresistible under the circumstances, and ultimately will lead to further chaos and more extreme measures. He took the mistakes of China, and magnified them, taking stupidity to new levels, and the consequences will not be pretty. NZ and many other countries have it pretty well in hand, but the global economy will be badly damaged, with America as a key player, what happens here effects everybody else to a greater or lesser degree. This is not something that will be over in a few months. I see the shape of world power and influence being altered greatly after this is over. The only real rush is related to the value of the US dollar..... spend 'em while they are worth something!!

You have TDS-admit it.

[Mr B]

Originally Posted by geoleo

I will ship you a dinner of Aussie mutton Meanwhile euro is headed to par USD

Lamb chops yesterday in IGA, $42-00 A KG,
Fillet steak, $78-00 a KG,
Leave it on the shelf to rot at that price,

[tp12]

Originally Posted by Mr B

Lamb chops yesterday in IGA, $42-00 A KG,
Fillet steak, $78-00 a KG,
Leave it on the shelf to rot at that price,

I got lamb chops from Aldi on Wednesday for $22.99/kg

[rabbi]

Originally Posted by Barra

^^^^

Markets are forward looking animals I'm sure you know that.

2 weeks ago they had priced in the jump in unemployment etc we are starting to just see now.

Now they have moved onto the new news which is stimulus being much larger than expected, possible cures quicker than thought and most importantly a shift in political emphasis in the US that makes it clear the self inflected part of the economic damage will not drag on.

Other countries will watch how that goes and either follow or not. Love or hate trump hes showing leadership.

Personally I think markets have gotten ahead of themselves but it isn't at all surprising really.

Longer term the real concern is not the virus it's the debt we have piled on to offset our shutdowns. That's a slow burn though but ultimately will cause far more harm.

I know the market is forward looking and anticipating early.

But the consensus was 1.6 Mio new unemployed with forecasts between a few hundret k and 3 Mio maximum. The reported 3.6 Mio was more than even doomsday analysts predicted.
And stocks go up.

Companies announce closure of all plants and the stocks go up.

NYC sees a massive desaster which will have a much greater impact than GFC and 9/11 combined and nobody seems to care.

Today we see Dow Jones at the same position as 2017, but both fundamentals and outlook have declined for most companies and the world economy. Actually nobody knows how this will end but it doesn't look promising.

But it seems that money printing is enough to neutralize all the bad news in the world. Money printing becomes the major business these days. Thats a disconnection between real world and stock market.



Not saying this Party can't go on for some time (just print another fantastillion USD will buy another year or two) but that won't work forever.


Trump shows leadership? From the outside it looks pretty erratic.

I am sure Trump will twist & turn again once the death toll rises. And it will rise for sure.
If the testing capacity can keep up we will see at least 1 Mio reported cases i the US by easter time. Hopkins reports around 1.5% mortality so far for the US, but that will only increase as ICUs become scarce.
The US won't go back to "business as usual" around easter time, and Trump will find someone else to blame for this.

[AndrewA2]

Markets DROPPED this morning.....