Cruising and the Coming Storm ~ Recession, Depression, Climate Change, Peak Oil

[jtbsail]

Hello everyone,

We are new here but have been long time lurkers. I read the other thread about cruising and future dilemmas and saw how it devolved into yet another political discussion. I would like to keep this thread an intellectual conversation about the realities of future cruising. NOT about politics. But what can we do to still go cruising and be safe regardless of who is president.

Ok, I've read The Long Emergency and all about Peak Oil. I believe it. I think (we think actually) it's coming.

I'm talking in about 7-25 years time frame, what do you think the world will be like? We will be going cruising with our then 10 year old daughter and want to be safe.

I've read different projections that talk about how piracy is on the rise and will continue to be on the rise as the chasm between the have's and the have-nots increases. So there's that issue.

Global climate change. More storms? Hotter?

General problems:
disruptions in power/water/food on shore
severe limitations on where/when/how much it costs to anchor or berth
rising costs of food, fuel, and water that must be purchased off the economy

What are your thoughts on how the Recession/possible depression can play out and how to be more self-sufficient? How is it going to affect the cruising community? How are YOU altering your plans to take all this into account?

Tamara

[David M]

I don't think the future is as dark as many are predicting. We see time and time again people coming up with these doom and gloom predictions of the future. How many of these predictions have come true? I can't think of any off the top of my head.

I don't think my beliefs are overly optimistic given the track record of most of these dire predictions.

Bad news and dire predictions sell newspapers and gather television viewers. I think we get an overabundance of this type of information on a daily basis from our media, skewing peoples outlook of the future towards the negative.

There is a whole industry of people out there who widely distribute negative facts, exaggerations and "not-so-facts", in order to advance the agenda of whoever they are working for.

As a society as a whole, I think we need to become a little less gullible to those with an agenda....its making many of us pessimistic wrecks of a personality. Please Tamara, I certainly do not mean you. I do mean a few others I have met in person and some I see in the media.

[Ram]

I agree with David M
and I might add
its bad and its gonna get worse- but we will come out of it in a few years- a few years can feel like a very long time if your in pain! But then it will be over - until the next time

[cdennyb]

LoL ...one word......


WATERWORLD

[skipmac]

Second what David said. Even during the Great Depression when unemployment approached 30% there was no global apocalypse. Some rioting and unrest here and there but over all stability seemed to be the norm.

If things do get much worse I would expect to see a rise in crime and higher risk traveling to some areas. However since one of the benefits of a sailboat is the ability to pick up and go elsewhere that can be easily handled by care in choosing your destinations. Barring all out nuclear war, global environmental collapse, a pandemic beyond the black plague or perhaps an invasion of space aliens (all pretty unlikely) I can hardly conceive of a scenario that would destabilize the entire world.

Unless there is a major break through in new energy sources the price of oil will inevitably increase; growing demand vs finite supply, basic economics in case anyone want to argue that point. With proper setup and energy management a sailboat could be almost self sufficient which would deal with that issue.

Even if civilization as we know it is doomed it will not happen suddenly and without warning. Will not lose 10 seconds of sleep over this, but if things really start going to hell in a handbasket (always liked that phrase and glad I could work it in) there will be plenty of time for preparation.

So how do I think the current economic crisis will play out. My guess is that we will see some further pain through 2009 with a gradual recovery starting late 2009 or Q1-Q2 2010. This is strictly a WAG and if I had a good idea this was correct I would be giving financial advise to Warren Buffett.

[chuckr]

a lot of years ago - when i was in grad school - i was required to read the book "limits to growth" which if i remembered had the basic premise that the world could not support added population as if growth were not limited then the world food supply could not support the population, that pollution would become so bad that all the water would be unfit to drink ect ect --
it had a basic flaw in that it used liner analysis and did not account for improvements in technology or anything else -
God created us in an amazing way that allows us to use our free will to not only improve ourselves but the earth as a whole -
there will always be good times and bad times - right now are not good times and could get better or worse - as a full time cruiser i am not fearful of pirates as it is far more dangerous in downtown miami or new york or boston or charleston than many other places in the world - like those cities you can avoid the dangerous areas - there are other places to go -
as for global warming - who knows - there are scienists on both sides of the case and only God knows what the real story is
have faith - go sailing - join the crusing family - and enjoy life as it is amazingly short -
chuck patty and svsoulmates
ki4sry
on a mooring key biscayne - outbound april 1 - headed eastward

[markpj23]

Wow - not sure how cannot possibly dissolve into a political thread... but let's hope it does not.

IMHO you need to look into the true nature of human beings. Are they able to overcome obstacles? Are they able to adapt to changing circumstances / climate / needs?

If you think as I do, the answer to all of the above questions (and more) is a resounding YES. Many examples where societies have overcome tremendous challenges / plagues / wars / natural disasters.

There have also been lots of doom-and-gloom thinkers throughout history. I know folks that are still trying to get rid of those Y2K emergency supplies....

I have faith that we will emerge from any trial and be stronger human beings for having done so. Don't delay cruising plans OR plan to go cruising based upon some "Koresh-like" view of a coming disaster.

Love those that love you; build memories with them. It's all any of us will have in the end.

No kool-aid in this beer chug....

[Ram]

Does Maya calendar predict 2012 apocalypse?
Do you think this is the beginning?
( theme of the twilight zone in the back ground plays)

[David M]

Originally Posted by markpj23

Wow - not sure how cannot possibly dissolve into a political thread... but let's hope it does not.

I think if we leave out specific politicians and political parties, we can keep this discussion from going down the wrong road.

[amytom]

Does that mean that we can't belittle all politicians as a group?

[David M]

Lets not go anywhere in that direction. Lets try to stick to the topic discussed in the first post.

[Chesapeake]

Me thinks you worry to much, which is stress and sailing cures stress.
So just get the boat and go sailing. Worried about pirates, sail in groups.

I am 64 and have worried too long about stuff like this and have tried my best to fund a reasonable retirement, so when I just about get there this crap hits the fan. I say I am too old too wait in line anymore, I am gonna get me a sailboat (whatever I can afford that is reliable with whatever I have left) and I am gonna enjoy sailing for as long as I can before I die. I also hope I can convince/coerce my wife to come along. In the meantime we enjoy my sailing club membership. Remember worrying has never solved anything and whatever is going to happen will happen while you enjoy yourself of worry about something else. Just being prepared for the worst is all you can do.

[David_Old_Jersey]

I think the answer depends on what you do and where you are in the world. and a bit of good luck, or at least the absence of bad.........

FWIW I may actually go somewhere within the next few years . On the other hand I may not . The decision is not greatly dependent on world events (sea up or sea down I figure it won't dissapear entirely ) or how the world economy goes (soaring up or melting down is simply take some dollars or take a machete )........but Plan Z for Alien Attack or Global Warming Meltdown Economic Catastraphoy* Disaster story (AKA "The Gordon Brown Story" ) involves the boat and Armageddon outta here .....by continuing my voyage of sailing to the Moon





*that doesn't look right does it?

[Christian Van H]

Originally Posted by cdennyb

LoL ...one word......


WATERWORLD

You mean I'm gonna get webbed feet? COOL!!!

[s/v Jedi]

I love Waterworld, one of my favorite movies. If you really worry you should have bought that boat, I heard it was sold not so long ago somewhere in the Caribbean!

cheers,
Nick.