Hot market?

[Messing About]

I’m 2013 my then employer’s (a $2B year Co) annual leadership meeting featured a keynote speaker who was a noted US Economist. ITR Economics, if you care to read further). He predicted the next recession as 2030, plus or minus 5 years. By 2018 he downgraded that forecast to predict 2030 (+/- 5) as the next Great Depression.
Hope he’s wrong but many leading indicators point to that as a real possibility.

I also believe that good boat will always sell for a good price but also see resale housing prices and resale boat prices coming down over the rest of 2022.

Wish I could have sold my home when the market peaked last Spring but my wife’s health condition precludes a move. When the Good Lord calls her home, I will still be selling this house and buying a boat to retire and cruise on.

I’d imagine big ticket items like homes and yachts will be closely tied in the % they come down, especially for cash buyers buying boats without liens. There could be a good deal of repo homes and boats in the future, again. Bottom line, I believe the market will cool off over the next two years. Five to ten years years from now, we could all be living in a world very, very different from anything even the past two years has shown us. If you’re a young person, unlike me, you might want to plan your financial future as if the job/career you have today won’t exist. If you’re a senior citizen like me, plan as if the life you have won’t exist. Live, love and pray accordingly.

[valhalla360]

Originally Posted by Messing About

I’m 2013 my then employer’s (a $2B year Co) annual leadership meeting featured a keynote speaker who was a noted US Economist. ITR Economics, if you care to read further). He predicted the next recession as 2030, plus or minus 5 years. By 2018 he downgraded that forecast to predict 2030 (+/- 5) as the next Great Depression.
Hope he’s wrong but many leading indicators point to that as a real possibility.

Noted economists making proclamations for 20yrs out with a 10yr spread...are a dime a dozen. Sooner or later, there will be a recession and he will be right.

Show me one who had documented evidence of predicting major economic shifts (both up and down) in advance within a month or two over the last 30yrs and we can talk about them having some special knowledge.

[goboatingnow]

Originally Posted by Messing About

I’m 2013 my then employer’s (a $2B year Co) annual leadership meeting featured a keynote speaker who was a noted US Economist. ITR Economics, if you care to read further). He predicted the next recession as 2030, plus or minus 5 years. By 2018 he downgraded that forecast to predict 2030 (+/- 5) as the next Great Depression.
Hope he’s wrong but many leading indicators point to that as a real possibility.

I also believe that good boat will always sell for a good price but also see resale housing prices and resale boat prices coming down over the rest of 2022.

Wish I could have sold my home when the market peaked last Spring but my wife’s health condition precludes a move. When the Good Lord calls her home, I will still be selling this house and buying a boat to retire and cruise on.

I’d imagine big ticket items like homes and yachts will be closely tied in the % they come down, especially for cash buyers buying boats without liens. There could be a good deal of repo homes and boats in the future, again. Bottom line, I believe the market will cool off over the next two years. Five to ten years years from now, we could all be living in a world very, very different from anything even the past two years has shown us. If you’re a young person, unlike me, you might want to plan your financial future as if the job/career you have today won’t exist. If you’re a senior citizen like me, plan as if the life you have won’t exist. Live, love and pray accordingly.

To me this seems over dramatic and simply fear mongering

The Ukraine situation will resolve by mid next year , fuel will come down ( somewhat) pent up demand for pharma and semi conductors will remain strong through 2023. For lower paid service industry finding staff remains a huge problem so unemployment will not rise significantly in the medium term.

Yes we may be entering a period of increased inflation and this is great of those of us on largely fixed income retirement situations but right now many retirees have positive surpluses and hence can weather some inflationary cost rises. Disposable spending will undoubtably be hit especially things like eating out , entertainment etc. I see wholesale failures in that business sector.

Also many , like my wife , have pensions linked to their former salary grades so there is some insulation.

We’ve been here before and it’s manageable

[PaulCrawhorn]

No one can predict the future.

[Happ]

Originally Posted by more

tik-tok-tik-tok-tik-tok and clock ticking to date my,your everbody time of death.

time passing you don't have new boat and you die with hill of money on account. and somebody receive your money and celebrate this with big party.

You keep posting how hot the market is. You don’t reiterate in your post you are in the industry in Croatia. You should. Of course you want a hot market! It helps line your pocket.

In the US small outboards are going up for sale like crazy hoping to get out at the top of the market that is crashing as gas skyrocketed. I drove down the coast yesterday and saw boat dealers with lots of used boats. Last years orders were delivered early this spring. RV lots are full of new RVs!

I’m seeing some sailboats dropping prices by 10% already. May be any number of reasons. Getting slips, insurance, costs in general?

[Sand crab]

There's this. But high fuel prices will have their say like they did in the Great Recession. Sailboats did better then btw.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boat-...104547131.html

[GordMay]

An economist, an accountant, lawyer, and a soothsayer decided to gamble.
And, that's how [stock] markets came into existence.

[Rumrace]

The sales here are same as usual slow. Sailboats took a big hit in 90’s mid 2000’s and 2020.
2017-2020 sell for more than new. Mainly due to heavy option packages.
The globe has just settled a boat trade war 3 weeks ago. So the US is surely affected as fewer boats are available in sail keeping the price silly. There is more margin in used.
I’ve been pricing recent Jeanneau and they are 100K less in Europe on average.
The hurricane repaired fleet sell off boats I can’t get insured and I don’t want to inherits rental traffic damage.
Frankly if it’s European New is looking like the best deal in Canada. Afterall it’s the options which break.
My boat was left in a cradle two years in probate. Batteries shot and plumbing damage from freezing. All brand new used now. So I’ve already been offered more than I paid including repair.
I’ve seen a lot of dreamers buying wrecked boats and a few astounding restorations of retired work boats. One old small ferry has a modern office in one end with curved glass all white Big Apple screen rest of the 50’ steel hull is two suite condo. Back deck.
Power boats from the 90’s selling really high way over market. I sold a 40’ Sea Ray just before Covid hit for more than I thought it was worth. Had cash left over after buying the wounded Jeanneau.
Many 80-90’s power boats with old grand names are delaminating right now. The brands would surprise you and it could just be one model. The chopper gun boats are fragile even if never hit with age. It’s a bigger list than you think. Hand laid hull but the lead in the keel was chopper gun fill.
Thin glass over foam has a life span.

[more]

Originally Posted by Happ

You keep posting how hot the market is. You don’t reiterate in your post you are in the industry in Croatia. You should. Of course you want a hot market! It helps line your pocket.

In the US small outboards are going up for sale like crazy hoping to get out at the top of the market that is crashing as gas skyrocketed. I drove down the coast yesterday and saw boat dealers with lots of used boats. Last years orders were delivered early this spring. RV lots are full of new RVs!

I’m seeing some sailboats dropping prices by 10% already. May be any number of reasons. Getting slips, insurance, costs in general?

No i don't. i want normal price. but be on sale 7 Bavaria 47 2008 delivery october 2022. price 78000-85000€ + tax fer price. in 3 weeks all boat is sold without survey only short inspection.

nautitech 40 open 2018 price 220000€ + tax 2- pieces is sold as is inspection be made in october 2022.

[Baby tug]

I don’t understand any of this , I don’t know how sailboat prices could go any lower at least where i live Washington state USA , there’s a boat on this forum that recently had $350,000 invested in a complete refit , Boat is Bristol as good as new or better Condition selling for 150,000 , I can give you example after example of that someone please explain to me where these boats for inflated prices are maybe it’s all high-end newer boats , I am not looking at why anyone would buy a new boat is beyond me that new boat smell cannot be worth all that money

[Happ]

If you have been reading many of the different topics operating coasts have gone through the roof. Five years ago I could have bought a slip for $15,000. Now around $90,000. Getting insurance is getting harder to get. If you want to live aboard it’s even harder to find a slip and get insurance. More and more yards are only doing basic work and often if you get really good work you are going to pay huge rates. In NC there was a huge boom in the center console world and 40’ slips were bought up and lifts were put in to lift the center consoles in the slips. Hopefully the gas prices will shake some of these slips loose.

[more]

Originally Posted by Baby tug

I don’t understand any of this , I don’t know how sailboat prices could go any lower at least where i live Washington state USA , there’s a boat on this forum that recently had $350,000 invested in a complete refit , Boat is Bristol as good as new or better Condition selling for 150,000 , I can give you example after example of that someone please explain to me where these boats for inflated prices are maybe it’s all high-end newer boats , I am not looking at why anyone would buy a new boat is beyond me that new boat smell cannot be worth all that money

everthing invested valid 0$ year and condition is what ship valid. you can invest gold toilet this is your mistake.
do complete refit only if you think keep boat 5-10 year.

[Happ]

Originally Posted by more

everthing invested valid 0$ year and condition is what ship valid. you can invest gold toilet this is your mistake.
do complete refit only if you think keep boat 5-10 year.

Just saw on YachtWorld a 2000 Lagoon 380 asking $225.000. 3 years ago asking price was around $200,000 for similar boats.

[Sand crab]

But there are some cats with crazy asking prices and they are not selling and reasonably priced boats are selling right away. So maybe the market is warm just not crazy.

[Rumrace]

I think it’s a reaction to supply and demand. Fewer new boats in production so the remaining boats move up in value.
The boat we are ogling came out in 2018. Due to a number of factors a 2023 is a better deal than a 2019. You get the speech about all the added gear but not used mattresses. A few things out of line like the price of a generator but it’s installed plumbed...
So recent boats are priced unrealistically. The cheap boats out of fleets as a previous person mentioned - insurance
For older boats like 98-2008 the prices look great in North America lower in Europe.
Global economic growth will push more new boats out.