Watch out for Patricia

[Lakepapa]

Originally Posted by ryon

I know how much you love that boat, zeehag. But this could be one of those exceptional times when love, and experience, and bravery mean nothing. This is weather at its worst, in confined quarters, with other boats close by. When there's nothing you can do to make things any better, take the safe option and get out. I'm worried for you. Buena suerte!

^^^^This!^^^^

Still time to reconsider a decision to stay on board. Please go inland and get to some sort of hard shelter if you can. Good luck!

[senormechanico]

Originally Posted by Steady Hand

Saw this quote today:

"It's a beautiful morning in my neighborhood," said Jane Gorby, a California native who has lived for 15 years in the town of La Manzanilla. She said the severity of the pending storm snuck up on residents in a region used to hurricanes, and left them scrambling for a potentially unprecedented event.

It's a wonderful small coastal town in Tenacatita Bay (one of my favorite places), but with the predicted storm surge, there WON'T BE a La Manzanilla after Patricia is done with them.

[bella]

Mexican weather service is pretty good... they all have FB pages..some more kept up than others.. here is the one local to Zeehag
https://www.facebook.com/Proteccion-CIVIL-Manzanillo-432236246846137/

[zeehag]

la manzanilla is within the cone of this and unfortunhately formy friends there, will syuffr greaty damages. we are tucked into a place wherein the surge is being blown away from. lago which is tucked inside another protected location. . manzanillo is 30 miles outside cone of uncertainty. i found weather channel to make erroneous calls as they are protecting the reputations of the turista towns, such as barra and isla navidad.

UNLESS YOU SEE NHC CHANGE TRACK, at which time we fornicated.


at any rate, no matter what track is followed, there will be no la manzanilla, no barra de nvidad, no melaque, many towns along this path. i am NOT on pacific. i am tucked inside a marina tucked inside a lagoon. our only worry and concern is WIND which we now have.

[davidfay]

We can all watch the hurricane as it hits Manzanilla: La Manzanilla Beach cam

at least until the camera gets swept away or darkness comes.

David

[CSailor]

Zeehag! First thing I thought of when I saw the news was you... You came to my aid when I called out for help, on this forum, running from Blanca (up the Baja) at the beginning of this Pacific hurricane season. You posted tons of stuff and helpful advice on the thread I started - when I was scared out of my wits, near Cabo with nothing like this bearing down on me and a number of other cruisers.

Your advice, was to run like hell. Which I and a number of other boats did, for Turtle bay. We ran... nobody was hurt. The storm was nothing like Patricia... But the point is: we took your advice and, got the hell out while the getting was good!!!

Shouldn't you do the same?

Rooting for you - from the safety of land (a million miles away), but can't shake that feeling of dread, seeing this forecast.

[subie]

Scary stuff. Unimaginable power.
Strongs to the people in Mexico

[bella]

wobbling west as of 3pm EDT.

[zeehag]

Originally Posted by Morgan Stone

Zeehag! First thing I thought of when I saw the news was you... You came to my aid when I called out for help, on this forum, running from Blanca (up the Baja) at the beginning of this Pacific hurricane season. You posted tons of stuff and helpful advice on the thread I started - when I was scared out of my wits, near Cabo with nothing like this bearing down on me and a number of other cruisers.

Your advice, was to run like hell. Which I and a number of other boats did, for Turtle bay. We ran... nobody was hurt. The storm was nothing like Patricia... But the point is: we took your advice and, got the hell out while the getting was good!!!

Shouldn't you do the same?

Rooting for you - from the safety of land (a million miles away), but can't shake that feeling of dread, seeing this forecast.

waaay back in april and may when i first started feeling el nino nervous i ran like a chikkin on crack into this marina. i am safe as it gets on west coastal mexico. look on my fb sksolitarybird group page cover foto. steal it and zoom in reallltight to the obscene color patch on other side of a channel from barra, the pueblo under the wing.. there you will see what i am contaained within. i know of no other cane zone marina constructed as is this one. yes i aam in a safe port. we see how safe when we done with this bitch.
i think i no longer lik\e name patricia..
please pray fro the locals . they willnot survive.
and it aint over til its over.
if it is again wobbling west, we gonna be reprieved nicely. i thought it did that hours ago..

[Vasco]

Good Luck Zee, make sure bubba is in his travel carrier.

[zeehag]

i tiii tried that. he screamed.
.so i put it with mine so he felt better, he wasnt afraid of the damn storm he is afraid of me going away. he has severe separation anxiety. when the carrier was out and open with his treats and foods, he kept biting me i asked if he wanted go in, he bit me hard. ok not an option.
he relaxed when he saw me place carrier on berth where mine are. so we will face 100 kt winds ok no problem.we prepped for this. actually for cat 3.

[zeehag]

ok airplane wing pic.... zoom in to see wher we are tucked in goood. only one marina, there is one in the canals, but that one isnt an option unless boat draws less than 5 ft.

cone.. see edge?? orange circle is where i am. manzanillo is south of us. la manzanilla is north of us

[Sandero]

Zee... Be careful... boats can be replaced... you and the cat can't...

[powsmias]

Originally Posted by zeehag

waaay back in april and may when i first started feeling el nino nervous i ran like a chikkin on crack into this marina. i am safe as it gets on west coastal mexico. look on my fb sksolitarybird group page cover foto. steal it and zoom in reallltight to the obscene color patch on other side of a channel from barra, the pueblo under the wing.. there you will see what i am contaained within. i know of no other cane zone marina constructed as is this one. yes i aam in a safe port. we see how safe when we done with this bitch.
i think i no longer lik\e name patricia..
please pray fro the locals . they willnot survive.
and it aint over til its over.
if it is again wobbling west, we gonna be reprieved nicely. i thought it did that hours ago..

hey zee just curious but as fast as this developed, do you see many cruisers or locals trying to get into the area you are at since it's one of the better places to hole up in or are they being turned away? all the best

[Tx J]

Originally Posted by bella

Weather channel is doing nonstop coverage..
TWC, just said that a NOAA plane flying out of MacDill in Tampa has found central pressure of 874 Mb. lowest ever.. as someone else said, HOLY CRAP.

IF one can stream... you can watch it online here:
http://www.weather.com/

I've been digging in the raw mission data, haven't seen 874mb yet, but it's a bad one.
NOAA has been flying missions out of my old FBO of Harlingen, TX (HRL), dang I'd like to see those birds up close.

Originally Posted by MarkJ

Sorry Zee but I don't think its easily survivable in your position.

The latest air recon from an hour ago shows huge winds well outside the centre.

I think you should get off the boat.

I know you know your exact location much better than me but I can tell you that last years Hurricane Gonzalo was only 100 knots and if I knew before I I would have gotten off. And during it I was wondering what the hell I was doing.


Mark

Patricia zoomed onto the 105 degree Longitude line and took a bounce to the west. If I'm interpreting Zee's pictures Patricia is now moving slightly away from Zee, closer to PV and bay. Of course it can bounce back, but it's pretty close to eye landfall. Still a howling monster.

Originally Posted by zeehag

la manzanilla is within the cone of this and unfortunhately formy friends there, will syuffr greaty damages. we are tucked into a place wherein the surge is being blown away from. lago which is tucked inside another protected location. . manzanillo is 30 miles outside cone of uncertainty. i found weather channel to make erroneous calls as they are protecting the reputations of the turista towns, such as barra and isla navidad.

UNLESS YOU SEE NHC CHANGE TRACK, at which time we fornicated.


at any rate, no matter what track is followed, there will be no la manzanilla, no barra de nvidad, no melaque, many towns along this path. i am NOT on pacific. i am tucked inside a marina tucked inside a lagoon. our only worry and concern is WIND which we now have.

Scary arse sat view:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floa...o-animated.gif

There are many other derived sat views here:
Latest Satellite Imagery

Originally Posted by bella

wobbling west as of 3pm EDT.

See my comment above, it 'bounced' off the 105L line.

Originally Posted by zeehag

ok airplane wing pic.... zoom in to see wher we are tucked in goood. only one marina, there is one in the canals, but that one isnt an option unless boat draws less than 5 ft.

cone.. see edge?? orange circle is where i am. manzanillo is south of us.

See links above. I think I see your aprx location on sat views. You may have dodged the worst, but I'm sure you're still getting hammered.

Do you have any cat tranquilizer for lil ol' Bubba? Some catnip might get his widdle mind off the weather and your anxiety. A hearty rum Painkiller for you later .